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EUROPE
No party
will win a majority in our view * Based on the current polling a workable
coalition government is unlikely * There is a distinct possibility that there
will be a second election * No workable majority or a Labour minority
government would be negative for sterling…while a Conservatives’ majority with
LibDems and DUP would be positive for UK assets
Volume
of retail trade down by 0.8% in euro area – Eurostat
GREECE
Greece Attacks Creditors as ECB Considers
Next Step – BB
ECB set to
decide on increasing Greek bank lifeline – Reuters
Greece Wrestles with Itself – Marc
Chandler
UNITED STATES
Preview:
Employment Report for April – Bill
McBride
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Two Views Inside Fed on U.S. Productivity Slowdown * Yellen Meetings With
Financial Firm Come Under Scrutiny * Kocherlakota: First-Quarter Economic
Softness Is ‘Matter for Concern’ * ECB’s Jazbec Says Too Early to Think About
Tapering QE * BOC Eyes Changes to Market Operations, Emergency Lending
Daily
Macro – WSJ
In China,
officials seem to be willing a frothy market lower; in the U.S., earnings
haven’t done enough to justify valuations; and in Europe, there’s a mix of
concern over Greece’s capacity to make some looming debt repayments– it made
one to the IMF Wednesday but there’s a bigger one falling due next week — and a
U.K. election Thursday whose outcome is uncertain.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Global
Daily – ABN
AMRO
Rebound in
US labour market expected after upbeat signals… while US wage growth should
pick up moderately, prompting the Fed to hike rates in September * UK
elections: a parliamentary hung likely, still more downside for sterling
Euro
rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Big jump in
US trade deficit, weak US foreign trade – hurdle to USD * Greek apprehension, now
also sell-off in the periphery
Morning
Markets – TF
The United
States is responsible for the more interesting data releases today with Europe
only providing second-tier news. But this being the final trading day before
voters take to the polls in the UK election, plenty of attention will be
focused on the last stretch of the election race as Sterling increasingly feels
the heat.
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
Chandler
Will a
Strong ADP Report Stabilize the Dollar?
Daily
Shot – TF
A seemingly
global selloff in bond markets has yields soaring from Australia to Europe,
with the latter development interesting in light of the European Central Bank's
massive quantitative easing programme.
Daily
Press Summary – Open
Europe
Greece says
disagreements between IMF and Eurozone are holding up negotiations * Cameron
and Clegg at odds over government endorsement for ‘Out’ vote in EU referendum *
Merkel willing to testify before Bundestag inquiry in spying scandal * EU
proposes global investment court to replace ISDS within TTIP * Commission
raises growth forecast for Eurozone on back of weaker euro and low oil prices *
Russia throws spanner in EU plans to sink migrant smugglers’ boats * Sarkozy’s
party set to change name * EU agrees to reform Emissions Trading System * Spain
faces EU fine for statistics manipulation by one of its regions * EU probe into
tax deals set to miss deadline
US Open – ZH
Violent
Moves Continue In European Bond Market; Equity Futures Rebound With Oil At
Fresh 2015 Highs
FX
Update – TF
The kiwi
sold off anew overnight after weak Q1 employment and earnings growth numbers.
Elsewhere, this Friday’s US employment report is shaping up to be one of the
most important in recent memory.
From the
Floor – TF
There is a
very antipodean flavour to From the Floor today with kiwi in particular taking
a nasty hit overnight entering a danger zone that could open up significant
downside below a trendline at 74.54.
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch
– FT
Health
spending and the UK election: Government contenders agree to compete on the
margins of the problem
OTHER
BOND MARKETS
Steen
Jakobsen’s Macro Digest Charts: Italian 2-10 yr yields call the alarm – TF
Like the
fixed income equivalent of a canary in a coalmine, the Italian short end is
issuing a stark warning of Greek contagion. Elsewhere, gilts are selling off
ahead of the UK election and from the US we have a dismal 2Q GDP forecast.
Are we
there yet? – FT
The long
awaited, much predicted start of the great turning point in bond markets after
which yields will rise, prices fall and teeth nash has arrived. Maybe.
Long-dated
bond yields lead global market slide – FT
Global bond
markets were sharply weaker on Tuesday as rebounding oil prices boosted
inflation expectations, suggesting that a long-running rally is now in danger.
Bond
rout rattles all assets – Reuters
A worldwide
selloff in government bonds deepened on Wednesday, with the rise in yields to
their highest level this year spreading unease across all asset classes and
putting stock markets around the world under pressure.
APRIL SERVICE PMI
Euro zone
business activity starts second-quarter on solid footing – Reuters
Spanish
Boom Meets French Stagnation as Reforms Drive Growth – BB
Will
Services Save the Eurozone? – WSJ
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Britannia uhkaa purra ruokkivaa kättä | USA:n kauppataseen
alijäämä paisui selvästi | Tanskan keskuspankki aloitti kruunuostot
Jan Hurri: Nyt sen sanoo ministeriö: EKP ja euro ovat
kriisin syypäitä – TalSa
Eurokriisi ei ole Kreikan tai muiden kriisimaiden syytä,
vaan syypäitä ovat euro, EKP ja komissio. Tällainen tulkinta ei ole yhtä
yllättävä kuin sen esittäjä: ei radikaali Syriza-puolue Kreikasta vaan
valtiovarainministeriön ylin virkamies Suomesta.
Syyttömyyden harha – Peter Nyberg
Kaikki olivat eurokriisistä vastuussa, kukin omalta osaltaan
Henri Myllyniemi: Siinähän pohditte – US
Lauri Kajanoja: Entä jos palkkamaltti ei riitä? – Suomen
Pankki
HALLITUSPELI
Pääkirjoitus: Yhteiskuntasopimus vasta aivan
alkutekijöissään – HS
Pääkirjoitus: Yhteiskuntasopimus näyttää vesittyvän, jopa
kaatuvan - Karjalainen
Pääkirjoitus: Isänmaa tarvitsee yhteistyöhön kykeneviä
vastuunkantajia – IL
Pääkirjoitus: Sipilän ovelat EU-linjaukset – IL
Ovatko Sdp:n "lisäkysymykset" pelkkää teatteria? –
HS
Rahaministeriö pelkää Suomen joutuvan EU:n tarkkailuluokalle
– Verkkouutiset
VM:n tyly arvio: Edes kuuden miljardin leikkaukset eivät
riitä – IS
Sipilä ilmoitti iltayhdeksältä: Yhteiskuntasopimus kariutui –
Verkkouutiset
Sipilä sopimuksen kaatumisesta: Työkalupakki jäi vähäiseksi –
YLE
Sipilä: Ei tässä syyllisiä tarvitse hakea – YLE
Sipilän yhteiskuntasopimus jäi syntymättä - ”Ei edellytyksiä”
– IS
Sipilä: Säästötarve nyt 10 miljardia - ”Kivinen tie on edessä”
– IS
Akavan mukaan ehdot yhteiskuntasopimukselle olivat liian
kovat – Verkkouutiset
EK:n Häkämies: Neuvottelujen kariutuminen on valtava menetys
– Verkkouutiset
Keskustan vaikuttajat apeina – Verkkouutiset
Näkökulma: Sipilän kaksoset – YLE
Sipilä sai selkänojan koville otteille - Sdp tuskin
hallitukseen – IS