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EUROPE
Die Zeit’s
Q&A on Dr Wolfgang Schäuble – Yanis
Varoufakis
GDP per
capita in the EU in 2013 – Eurostat
Seven capital
regions among the ten most prosperous
Germany's
record trade surplus is a bigger threat to euro than Greece – The
Telegraph
If EU law
were properly enforced, Germany would face fines for endangering eurozone
stability and breaching the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure for the fifth
year in a row
Portugal's "Left-Wing" Forces
Threaten Troika Revolt – ZH
EUR
Spreads & Curve: Narrower, flatter – Nordea
Intra-Euro-area
spreads have lacked clear direction in the past few months, something that is
likely to continue in the coming weeks. However, spreads have more narrowing
potential over the summer, especially if an agreement is reached on Greece. The
swap curve is set to re-flatten again going forward, and flatteners offer
value.
European
FI Strategy: Still lacking escape velocity – Nordea
The violent
sell-off seen in bond markets recently is unlikely to last, and yields are set
to fall again over the summer. New yield lows will not be ahead, though.
Renewed spread narrowing is still lacking a trigger, but we expect spreads to
narrow during the summer, at the latest. Curves should re-flatten, as some of
the rise in long yields is reversed.
Bond
market overview: What goes up… - Nordea
Following a
huge sell-off in Euro-area bond markets, the ECB’s Cœuré finally delivered
soothing comments, which should pave the way for a renewed rally in bonds over
the coming months. The favourable net cash flow picture will support the bond
market during the summer, together with ECB purchases. New lows are unlikely to
be reached, though.
Northern
Lights: Dealing with uncertainty – Nordea
Our monthly
overview of Scandinavian macro, FX and fixed income: central bank policies in
the Scandinavian countries, our predictions for NOK and SEK, and the need for
action in a Finland that is into recession yet again.
UNITED KINGDOM
What
Schäuble Said About the U.K.’s EU Renegotiation Plans – WSJ
Latest
immigration figures raise the stakes for Cameron’s EU renegotiation – Open
Europe
GREECE
A Finance
Minister Fit for a Greek Tragedy? – NYT
How
politics will seal the fate of Greece – FT
Investors
and policy makers eye consequences of Greek default – FT
To avoid
Syriza’s fate over the EU, Britain must embrace fudge – FT
Barry
Eichengreen: “Weeks away from default unless deal reached” – Europp
/ LSE
Eiffel &Glienicke:
Giving Greece a chance – Bruegel
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB to Stop
Giving Journalists Advance Copies of Speeches – WSJ
Building a
Capital Markets Union – ECB
Account of
the April monetary policy meeting – ECB
Draghi
Elevates Policy Debate as Governments Seen Falling Short – BB
OTHER
Global
Outlook: Risk Control is Working – Berenberg
Low oil
prices: big boost for Western world, tough luck for Russia * US: consumers and
companies in good shape = solid growth after weak Q1 * China: sufficient growth
despite slowing trend, risks well contained * Eurozone: oil, exchange rate and
ECB boost growth as tail risks fade * UK: solid recovery but mind the politics;
Brexit risk receding * Tail risks: Emerging market crash, Putin’s war, Grexit,
euro politics?
Steen's
Chronicle: The best of times, the worst of times – TF
Significant
changes to our JABA model's long-term outlook * Inopportune rise in gold and
energy prices expected * Commodities will outperform and yields will add
another 100 bps * Europe will suffer downturn and the US will flirt with
recession in 2016
MAY PMI
Japan
manufacturing PMI back in expansion territory as orders pick up – Reuters
China:
manufacturing PMI improves slightly - appears to have bottomed out – Danske
Bank
China: weak
industrial sector despite improved headline PMI – Nordea
China
factory PMI shrinks for third month, more stimulus seen – Reuters
Weak China
factories chill hopes for global bounce, U.S. lift needed – Reuters
Despite
Weaker-Than-Expected PMI, Chinese Stocks Stumble – ZH
China
shares rally after poor data, dollar holds gains – Reuters
French
economy accelerates in May – TF
France’s
Recovery Strengthens as Manufacturing Slump Eases – BB
Broad-based
slowdown in Germany in May – TF
Germany
Loses Further Momentum as Manufacturing, Services Weaken – BB
Is Germany
Finally Finding Exports a Bitter Pill? – WSJ
Europe Stocks Drop From Three-Week High
Amid Manufacturing Data – BB
US Manuf.
PMI To Lowest In 16 Months As New Orders Tumbled – ZH
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Is the Fed’s 2% Inflation Target Too Low? * Fed Minutes Show June Rate
Hike Unlikely * Global Banks to Pay Penalties in FX, Libor Probe * Schäuble
Won’t Rule Out a Greek Default * Russia Buys More Dollars to Replenish Currency
Reserves
Daily
Macro – WSJ
The mid-May
flash manufacturing surveys from Europe and China have painted an underwhelming
picture of the global economy. The (modestly) good news is that China’s
manufacturing base is not shrinking as fast as it was and that the eurozone’s
is still growing.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Global
Daily – ABN
AMRO
Cautiously
optimistic FOMC members see June rate hike as too early; September hike still
on the cards * ECB reported to give Greek banks more room on ELA * Japan GDP
growth stronger than expected, but inventories played a big role
Euro
rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Downside
risks for Euro-area PMIs * Bond market finding better demand again * Downward
move in EUR/USD building momentum
Morning
Markets – TF
Today's
session will be data-driven, with PMI prints from the Eurozone and the US
providing direction for traders looking to test the strength of both economies'
recovery.
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
Chandler
Busy UK Shoppers Lift Sterling, Spurs Profit-Taking After Dollar
Bounce
Daily
Shot – TF
The
overnight release of a disappointing HSBC PMI report from China has brought
fears of a growth slowdown back to the forefront. Chinese equities, however,
continue to rally as investors expect a new round of central bank stimulus.
Daily
Press Summary – Open
Europe
Schäuble
suggests Britain’s concerns can be addressed in talks over the Eurozone’s future
* Cameron sets out tough new measures on illegal migration as figures show net
migration has reached new highs * Schäuble: “I would have to think very hard”
before ruling out a Greek default * France sees Capital Markets Union as means
of financing ‘European champions’ * Fears that Isis has sent fighters posing as
migrants to Europe across the Mediterranean
Brussels
Playbook – Politico
US Open – ZH
Despite
Weak Economic Data Overnight, Futures Slide On Rate Hike Concerns
FX
Update – TF
There were
no real takeaways from last night’s FOMC minutes, as the next major USD catalysts
are tough to discern. Meanwhile, we have a possibly interesting Bank of Japan
meeting up tonight, which is made doubly interesting by USDJPY’s recent
attempts to extract itself from a longstanding range.
From the
Floor – TF
After the
pair has been stuck between the goal posts for so long, could the dollar
finally be ready to head higher against the yen?
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch
– FT
Slice your
cake and grow it too: The famed growth-equality trade-off looks less and less
like one
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Euroalueen talouteen uskotaan edelleen | Yksityinen kulutus
kääntää Fedin pään | Euro jatkoi heikentymistään dollaria vastaan
Roger Wessman: Euroalueen ostopäälliköt: Tasapainoisempaa
kasvua – Marketnoze
Roger Wessman: Leikkaukset eivät Suomen kasvua tapa –
Marketzone