Previously:
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EUROPE
The
agreement between Greece and the three
institutions takes some suspense out of the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on
Thursday. Still, important questions related to Greece will dominate the press
conference: ELA, the T-bill issuance
limit, Greek banks’ health. As long as a bailout is not a done deal, the ECB
can hardly remove any restrictions. Monetary policy will play second fiddle. We
expect no changes and no indications of upcoming policy changes either.
How A "Eurozone Breakdown" Became A True Black Swan Event – ZH
In
May not a single respondent even mentioned EZ breakdown as risk – in July it
perceived the biggest tail risk.
Results of the July 2015 euro area bank lending survey – ECB
Professor Blanchard Writes a Greek Tragedy – Bruegel
The Euro – A Monetary Strangulation Mechanism – Lars
Christensen
GREECE
Greek
crisis turns European – George Magnus
There
is no Greek deal – Politico
The
Troika And The Five Families – Automatic
Earth
Einhorn
Says Europe Letting Greece Collapse to Stop
Populism – ZH
Greek
Crisis Talks Put French-German Ties to the Test – WSJ
Charles
Wyplosz: The new European Union – VoxEU
Greeks
Rebel Against Bailout, Risk Collapse – Yves
Smith
Greece needs debt relief far
beyond EU plans - Secret IMF report – Reuters
Greece May Need Even More Debt
Relief, Financing Than IMF Estimated – WSJ
Schäuble
undermines Greek deal – Politico
IMF
May Walk Away From Greek Bailout – ZH
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Janet Yellen Has Relationship Issues * Yellen’s Fed Flounders in
Political Arena * U.S. Finds ‘No Single Cause’ of
Treasurys Tremor * Wall Street’s Top Cop Takes Harder Line * ECB To Leave
Emergency Lending for Greek Banks Unchanged
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Having been
preoccupied with Greece and China for much of the past month,
investors switched their attention to Iran on Tuesday following a landmark
deal between the country and global powers, led by the U.S., over its nuclear program. The deal
could yet fail – there’s plenty of mistrust on both sides – but for now it
raises the prospects of a hefty stream of Iranian oil hitting an already
glutted global economy. Little wonder that crude prices continued to fall in
early trading. Elsewhere, Chinese equities pulled back slightly following the
hefty rally of the previous three sessions and eurozone equities suffered a
bout of profit-taking in a post-Greek deal breather. Now comes the hard part
for the Greek government–legislating and implementing its agreement.
Morning
MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks Rally as Europe Steps Back From the Edge
Morning
MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Markets
Pause After Monday’s Euphoria
Banks
Should Boost Overall Earnings Growth Rate
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro
rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Eurogroup
discusses bridge financing while Tsipras faces a revolt * US retail data and
inflation prints from UK and Sweden * Holland’s Dijsselbloem won vote to continue
as Eurogroup president
Morning
Markets – TF
WTI crude
is drifting lower as the global powers look to be reaching an agreement on Iran's nuclear programme.
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
Chandler
Consolidation
Awaiting Fresh Developments
Daily
Shot – TF
The onerous
terms of that deal means Greece will almost certainly be back at
the negotiating table in the not-too-distant future.
Daily
Press Summary – Open
Europe
Tsipras
faces party rebellion as Greek parliament prepares to vote on bailout measures
* UK could face request to underwrite €850m share of Greek bridging loan * Dijsselbloem
re-elected Eurogroup President for second term * Le Figaro: Greek deal should
serve as a warning to France that Europe is merciless * Romanian Prime Minister
Victor Ponta refuses to step down over corruption charges * UK faces fine over
handling of EU farm payments
US Open – ZH
Stocks Get
Second Thoughts About Greek Deal: Turn Red From China To Europe
Frontrunning – ZH
FX
Update – TF
EURUSD is
trading below 1.1000 this morning, a significant level that opens the way for
1.0500 and beyond, provided the parliamentary votes on the Greek deal in Greece and across Europe don’t throw up any roadblocks.
From the
Floor – TF
The Greek
deal is in, and markets appear confident that the Greek parliament will ensure
its safe passage in tomorrow's vote. Why, then, does everything still feel so...
unresolved?
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Kreikan eurojäsenyys edelleen ohuen langan varassa | Tänään
julkaistaan USA:n vähittäismyyntiluvut | Ruotsissa inflaatio hidastuu hieman
Paavo Väyrynen: Kansanäänestys Suomen jäsenyydestä euroalueessa
– US
Jussi Saramo: Eurooppalainen unelma kuoli – US
Teollisuuden liikevaihto helmi-huhtik. väheni runsaat 2% YoY
– Tilastokeskus
Palvelujen liikevaihto helmi-huhtik. +4,8% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Inflaatio kesäkuussa -0,1 prosenttia – Tilastokeskus