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EUROPE
Mankiw
and Conventional Wisdom on Europe – John
Cochrane
I am a big
euro fan. This seems a good moment to explain why I don't accept this
conventional view, despite its authority from Milton Friedman to Marty
Feldstein and Greg Mankiw and even to Paul Krugman.
Matt
O’Brien: Italy is the most likely country to leave
the euro – WaPo
I's the
Euro, Stupid – BB
Events in
the debt crisis could be displacing domestic worries when it comes to citizens'
perception of the European Union
Ann
Pettifor: The Euro, Like The Gold Standard, Is Doomed To Fail – Social
Europe
The euro
not only replicated key elements of the gold standard – but went much further:
European currencies were simply abolished. States lost control over both their
currency and their central bank. Parallels with the operation of the gold
standard explain why, like the gold standard, the euro will fail.
In
defence of the (conflicted) ECB – Frances
Coppola
It is the
conflict of interest between ECB-as-creditor and ECB-as-liquidity-provider that
makes the ECB ineffective as a lender of last resort.
PIIGS
Could the
Greek Government Collapse this Weekend? – Marc
Chandler
Lee Jones: Why
Syriza Failed – The
Current Moment
Rajoy Aims
to Sway Spanish Voters With Pre-Election Handout – BB
DATA
Euro zone
inflation stable at 0.2 percent, still far off ECB target – Reuters
Euro-Area
Inflation Remains at 0.2% as Core Rate Picks Up – BB
Euro area:
Core inflation showing signs of life – Nordea
Euro area: Core
inflation surprises on the upside again – Danske
Bank
Italy Youth Unemployment Hits Record High
44.2% - ZH
UNITED STATES
DATA
U.S. employment costs post smallest gain
on record in second-quarter - Reuters
Earnings
Shocker: Quarterly Increase In Wages Is Smallest On Record – ZH
Is it time
for the Fed to cut rates? – Scott
Sumner
Chicago PMI
Jumps To 6-Month Highs As UMich Consumer "Hope" Tumbles To 2015 Lows –
ZH
Chicago PMI
increases, Final July Consumer Sentiment at 93.1 – Bill
McBride
U.S. consumer sentiment slips in July – Reuters
GDP Report – Tim Duy
OTHER
Trade
Like A Market Wizard - An Interview With Mark Andrew Ritchie – ZH
The
bloodied emerging markets look like a buying opportunity – TF
The
negative developments in the emerging market asset prices have received plenty
of press recently. Few have noticed that for the past five years EM-equity
indices have range-traded on USD-basis, and are now at the bottom of the range.
A tight stop and a good profit target within a six month-horizon suggest a
tempting trade opportunity.
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: GDP Data Support a Soon-and-Slow Rate
Hike Strategy * Modest Growth in U.S. Economy * The Expansion Just Got Weaker *
Dallas Fed Struggles to Fill Fisher’s Shoes * Eurozone Inflation Subdued as
Unemployment Rises
Morning
MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks
Flat on Rather Mixed GDP Report
Morning
MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Stocks Edge
Higher, Earnings in Focus
Dog Days of
August Could Extend Tight Trading
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro
rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Greece back
in headlines; curve flattening; stronger USD; stocks little changed * All eyes
on the US employment cost index today * Both the US and EUR curve flattened,
but for different reasons * US and EUR data keeps pushing the EUR/USD lower
Morning
Markets – TF
Euro/dollar
may have been looking down the barrel of a run below 1.0900 in the late
European session yesterday, but a general risk-off sentiment during an edgy
Asian session has the key pair heading back and above 1.0950.
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
Chandler
8 Things to
Know Before the Weekend
Daily
Shot – TF
The
recovery in inflation in the Eurozone seems to be stalling in spite of the
aggressive quantitative easing efforts by the European Central Bank. German and
Spanish CPI is trending lower, and bund yields
are falling again.
Daily
Press Summary – Open
Europe
Schäuble’s
proposals to restructure Commission receive mixed response in Germany * IMF
steps back from participating in third Greek bailout unless significant debt
relief agreed * Wolhgemuth: The ECB’s ‘money for free’ policy will only
undermine structural reform in the Eurozone * Süddeutsche: “The Sympathetic Mr
Juncker” too soft on debt and deficits * Süddeutsche: German influence within
the Commission on the rise * Germany needs up to half a million immigrants a
year to deal with declining population * Handelsblatt: Sanctions on Russia are
full of holes and hurting German business * Russia continues to probe NATO
airspace
Calais chaos continues — Royal soap opera — EU vs Hollywood
US Open – ZH
Chinese
Stocks Drop, End Worst Month Since August 2009; US Equity Futures Flat
Frontrunning – ZH
It's
official! The chances of a US interest rate hike in September is a
coin-toss.The market is split into two halves after last nights US Q2 GDP
release which encouraged the doves with its low headline number (2.3% vs 2.6%
expected) but also gave succor to the hawks who zoned in on an unexpectedly
strong inflation component.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
USA:n toisen neljänneksen BKT-kasvu kiihtyi | IMF ilmoitti
aikovansa jäädä pois Kreikan tukipaketista | USA:sta saadaan työvoiman
kustannusindeksi