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EUROPE
Philip Stephens: Delors had the answer to the Greek question – FT
The
1989 blueprint for the euro emphasised responsibility and solidarity would sit
side by side
Greece and the missing banking union – VoxEU
The
Greek Crisis is a crisis rather than a problem due to the vulnerability of
Greek banks. While the banks have deep problems, this column argues that these
would have been mitigated if a fully operational banking union were in place. A
full banking union requires joint banking supervision, joint bank resolution,
and joint deposit insurance. The EZ only has the first so far. Completing the
banking union must be part of any long-term solution.
The euro is a disaster
even for the countries that do everything right – WaPo
The
euro straitjacket, in other words, turns ordinary problems into extraordinary
ones (Finland) and extraordinary problems into historic ones (Greece). And that
can happen whether or not you follow the rules.
Ben Bernanke: Greece and Europe: Is Europe holding up its end of the
bargain?
– Brookings
Simply
recognizing officially that creditor as well as debtor countries have an
obligation to adjust over time (through fiscal and structural measures, for
example) would be an important step in the right direction.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Results of the Q3 2015 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters – ECB
Survey Shows Eurozone Inflation Below Target for Some Time to Come – WSJ
Decisions taken by the Governing Council in July – ECB
Draghi Said to Surprise ECB Governors With Bid to Ease Greek Aid – BB
Stefano Micossi: The changing tasks of the ECB – VoxEU
The
ECB’s monetary policy has evolved rapidly over the past decade – from the
adoption of the euro to the recent implementation of quantitative easing. This
column discusses the effectiveness of the ECB’s policies. The single currency
induced pro-cyclicality in the Eurozone periphery. The failure to adequately
respond to the Lehman failure placed the burden to stabilise financial markets
on the Eurozone. And finally, the persistent deflation and depression convinced
the ECB to adopt an expansionary monetary stance.
GREECE
Grexit
Still on the Table Even With EU’s Latest Band-Aid – BB
Euro
countries quietly urge Grexit – Politico
More
than one way to skin Greece loan – FT
Odds
That The Greek Debt Deal Will Work Are 50/50 At Best – Forbes
Europe
moves to restore funding to Greece after bailout vote – Reuters
Fear
of the Unknown Binds a Greek Deal With Few Believers – WSJ
The
New Greek Deal Is Not Viable Without Debt Relief – Forbes
Greece: Donald Tusk warns of
extremist political contagion – FT
Donald
Tusk interview: the annotated transcript – FT
Eurogroup
Head Dijsselbloem on the Race to Find a Plan for Greece – WSJ
Lagarde
Insists Greek Debt Needs Easing If Aid Deal Is to Work – BB
Draghi
Dreams of Better Union as Europe Bickers Over Greece – BB
Greece
is being taxed to death – Politico
Merkel
says ‘timeout’ not an option – Politico
Germany Approves Bailout By Wide Margin Despite Surge In "Nein" Votes – ZH
Five
Lessons on Greece – Bruegel
German
lawmakers back Greek bailout talks despite rebellion – Reuters
Karl
Whelan: Where Rules Mean What Wolfgang Says They Mean – Medium
Tails
you lose, heads you lose – TF
UNITED STATES
The Case For September – Tim
Duy
Ultimately,
as the crisis fades further into the rearview mirror, the Fed see the policy
risks shifting. Many, including Yellen, will shift back toward the central
banker's natural inclination to fight inflation, despite the lack of inflation
for the past two decades. And that natural inclination keeps the September
option alive.
Great Graphic: Fed Expectations--Surveys and the Market – Marc
Chandler
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: What We Learned From Yellen: Fed is Dug In on Raising Rates in 2015 * Yellen
Open to Raising SIFI Threshold * ECB Raises Emergency Lending to Greek Banks * BOE’s
Carney: U.K. Rate Decision Could Become Clearer in at Turn of Year * WSJ Survey:
Most Economists Expect Fed Will Move in September
Daily
Macro – WSJ
With the
Greek crisis and China’s market collapse solved and a deal over Iranian nuclear
weapons signed and sealed, the world suddenly seems a friendlier place for
investors. Equity prices have been ticking higher while sovereign debt is
stable. Attention now has shifted to U.S. corporate earnings and the prospects
the Federal Reserve will start to tighten policy in September.
Morning
MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks
Rise as Threats Recede
Morning
MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Sailing
Past Greece for Now
Morning
MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Why
Sustainable New Highs Could Be Hard to Come By
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro
rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Greece
bridge financing imminent * US to welcome positive inflation * ECB and Fed both
downplaying economic downside risks
Morning
Markets – TF
Angela
Merkel will get the ratification for the Greek bailout that she wants today
from the German Bundestag, but a stormy debate will no doubt demonstrate the
cracks that exist within her Christian Democratic Union Party and between her
and finance minister Wolfgang Schauble.
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
Chandler
Dollar
Consolidates Gains, Sterling Continues to Shine
Daily
Shot – TF
Why are we
seeing the euro, particularly euro-sterling, decline sharply after the Greek
situation has supposedly stabilised?
Daily
Press Summary – Open
Europe
Greek
Interior Minister says snap elections after the summer are “very likely” * Osborne
hails deal to ring-fence non-Eurozone taxpayers’ from Greek bailout * European
Parliament mulls boosting role of its President * Hoey: Post Brexit UK could
rip up EU state aid rules and re-nationalise railways
Brussels
Playbook – Politico
US Open – ZH
Futures
Flat Ahead Of Greek Bridge Loan Approval
Frontrunning – ZH
FX
Update – TF
The
greenback has posted its strongest week in a couple of months so far, and today
is about whether the currency can close the week on a strong note. Today’s US
CPI data should be overlooked if it is weak.
From the
Floor – TF
As Greece
and the Eurozone clear a clutch more hurdles en route towards a bailout and
salvation, Saxo Bank's team of market experts tell us that markets are in
buoyant mode this morning with both the US dollar and sterling clocking strong
gains on the euro, bonds steady to higher and European equities stronger amid
bluechip earnings' beats.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
EKP:n kokous: Kreikka, Kreikka, Kreikka | Kreikka joutuu
todennäköisesti järjestämään uudet vaalit | USA:n inflaatio kääntyy positiiviseksi
kesäkuussa
Salattu toimintalinja: Suomi halusi Kreikan väliaikaisesti
pois eurosta – Verkkouutiset
Henri Myllyniemi: Kreikan kolmas paketti nakertaisi
hallitusta – US
Tehtiinkö
euroalueella vallankaappaus? – Peter
Nyberg