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EUROPE
Paul Krugman: Second-best Macroeconomics – NYT
All
the natural answers to our problems have been ruled out politically… As a
result, we’re stuck with highly problematic second-best policies like
quantitative easing and internal devaluation.
Hans-Werner Sinn: Don’t Lend to Your Euro Friends – Project
Syndicate
After
months of brinkmanship, and only a week after Greek voters rejected the
conditions for a rescue package, the eurozone's political leaders agreed to
start negotiations on a much larger package, worth almost half of Greece’s GDP. Unfortunately, the deal
reveals Europe’s apparent determination to reenact the same tragedy
in the future.
The Euro is Saved! Now What? – Alpha
Now
Euro
Headed To Parity? * Europe Needs More Liquid Diet * The EUR
Is Already Weak… But It May Not Be Saved
ECB’s Cœuré on the Eurozone: Federation or Stagnation – Craig
Willy
Why is inflation so low in the euro area? – Bank
of Italy
Both
aggregate demand and oil supply shocks have driven inflation down everywhere,
albeit with varying intensity
GERMAN WISE MEN ON EURO AREA
Press
release: euro area reform needs – German
Council of Economic Experts
Executive
Summary – German
Council of Economic Experts
German
Economic Council Backs Exit For "Uncoooperative" EZ Members – ZH
German
'wisemen' say euro zone states should be able to go bankrupt – Reuters
German
economists oppose eurozone integration – Politico
GREECE
Thank
You Sir, May I Have Another? – Marc
Chandler
Yanis
Varoufakis: The Lethal Deferral of Greek Debt Restructuring – Project
Syndicate
Denials
fly in war of nerves over Greek debt talks – Reuters
DATA
UK
Q2 Prelimininary GDP +0.7% - ONS
Services,
Finance and Oil Drive U.K. Growth to 0.7% - BB
UK:
Growth rebounded in Q2 - focus now on next MPC meeting – Danske
Bank
GDP
review: BoE rate hike in 2015 still on cards – Nordea
UNITED STATES
5 Things
to Watch at This Week’s Fed Meeting – WSJ
The
Numbers: Janet Yellen’s First 18 Months Running the Fed – WSJ
DATA
US Economic
& Consumer Confidence Plunges To 10-Month Lows – ZH
U.S. home price growth stalls in May: S&P/Case-Shiller
– Reuters
Home-Price Growth Remained Solid in
May – WSJ
National House Price Index increased
4.4% year-over-year in May – Bill
McBride
Are Home Prices Again Breaking
Records? Not Really – WSJ
Case
Shiller Home Prices Tumble Most In 10 Months – ZH
One
Economic Datapoint, Two Vastly Different Interpretations – ZH
OTHER
Countries
Should Take Action to Reduce External Imbalances – IMF
More
progress still needed on reducing global imbalances * Lower oil prices,
divergent monetary policies are shaping the current picture * Both surplus and
deficit economies need to take steps to reduce excess imbalances
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Why Budget Battles Aren’t Likely to Derail Fed Rate Plans * 5 Things to
Watch at This Week’s Fed Policy Meeting * Investors Think China Tumult Will
Cause Fed to Delay Liftoff * China’s Yuan Pushes Deeper Into Global
Financial System * U.K. Economy Steps Up a Gear
Morning
MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks
Extend Losses on China Selloff
Morning
MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Stocks
Steady, China Still in Focus
Morning
MoneyBeat US – WSJ
China a
Focal Point as Fed Begins Policy Meeting
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro
rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
China
stocks record largest one-day drop in eight years * Growth fears weighing on
core yields * EUR gained on global de-risking
Morning
Markets – TF
The
headline act in today's economic news is the UK, where GDP is expected to be up
0.7% in the second quarter of 2015, indicating healthy year-on-year growth and
raising the probability of a rate hike later this year.
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
Chandler
Dollar-Bloc
Corrects Higher, GDP Underpins GBP
Daily
Shot – TF
After
Chinese stocks took a very bad tumble on Monday (and a milder one Tuesday),
conspiracy theorists are blaming 'foreigners' for the country's ills. A more
pragmatic (though still hardly credible) explanation would be a sharp rise in
the price of pork.
Daily
Press Summary – Open
Europe
French
Economy Minister says EU needs “fair set of rules” for non-euro countries * Lord
Hill: People “value” the UK as an EU member and are willing to listen to
reforms but these need to be spelt out * Varoufakis defends his plans for an
alternate Greek payment system amid reports of potential judicial inquiry * Negotiations
restart as creditors demand further reforms in Greece before bailout agreed * IMF
warns of weak Eurozone outlook and calls for further integration * ECB’s Cœuré
joins call for Eurozone Finance Ministry * EU state aid rules force Scottish
government to turn to private sector to deliver infrastructure funding * New
poll: Pro-independence alliance would fail to win majority in Catalan elections
* French farmers block German lorries at the border over ‘low cost’ competition
Brussels
Playbook – Politico
Drachma
queen — China crash — IMF FAQ — Orbán cowboy
US Open – ZH
Futures
Soar On Hope Central Planners Are Back In Control, China Rollercoaster Ends In The Red
Frontrunning – ZH
FX
Update – TF
The USD
recovered slightly in places, while AUD and NZD recovered even more robustly.
After the recent distraction of the risk-off tone, the potential for a bigger
surprise is now building around tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.
From the
Floor – TF
Today's
Asian session saw the Shanghai Composite continue to saw at the wheel, with
Saxo Bank fixed income head Simon Fasdal stating that more intervention from
Beijing is likely on the cards.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Raaka-ainevaluuttojen nokka kohti kaakkoa | Kiinan
Shanghai-osakkeet laskivat eilen 8,5 prosenttia | Saksan talouselämän luottamus
nousi heinäkuussa
Aivovoimistelua euron hajottamisesta – Roger
Wessman
Pasi Sorjonen: Asuntojen hinnat: Ensivaikutelma pettää
– Nordea
Voimmeko jo päätellä, että asuntojen hintojen lasku on
kääntynyt lieväksi nousuksi? Tilastokeskus kertoi tänään, että vanhojen
osakeasuntojen hinnat kohosivat Suomessa vuoden 2015 toisella neljänneksellä
verrattuna edelliseen neljännekseen. Koko maan tasolla nousua kertyi 0.8
prosenttia, pääkaupunkiseudulla 0.3 prosenttia ja muualla Suomessa 1.2
prosenttia.