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EUROPE
European FI Strategy:
Easing vs tightening – Nordea
While the Fed is still pondering when to raise rates, the ECB has opened
the door to even more easing. Financial markets are not betting on either of
these happening in the immediate future. Spreads remain on a modest widening
trend, and it would take stronger hopes of more QE to change that. We have taken
a closer look at the recent QE modifications and find that the immediate
changes flow-wise speak in favor of curve flattening.
EUR curves – Nordea
Flow-wise the recent QE changes speak in favor of the curve flattening
Sweden: Staff Concluding
Statement of the 2015 Article IV Mission – IMF
UNITED STATES
US Shutdown Showdown may
be Postponed Until December – Marc
Chandler
U.S. manufacturing
flashing warning signs – Reuters
Ben Bernanke vs. Janet
Yellen: Exploring the (a)symmetry of individual and aggregate inflation
expectations – SNB
OTHER
Bond market overview: Rate hikes or expanded QE?
– Nordea
The ECB has opened the
door for more easing, while the Fed has postponed its first tightening move.
Even though central bank rhetoric has opened more downside for bond yields, the
recent ranges have held so far. While risks remain on the downside, the Fed
remains on course for a hike still this year, while the ECB is likely to
refrain from an immediate expansion of its QE programme.
Bond spreads: More QE needed to narrow spreads – Nordea
Despite the fact that
the ECB has opened the door for further easing measures, intra-Euro-area bond
spreads have not seen a clear narrowing. It would take clearer easing signals
from the ECB to push spreads much narrower, and political risks are likely to
keep spreads on a widening path for now. Spanish bonds are set to face more
pressure vs Italy, while Finnish bond spreads are likely to underperform vs the
Netherlands and Austria.
IMF'S GFSR
Global Financial Stability Report October 2015 – IMF
Vulnerabilities,
Legacies, and Policy Challenges - Risks Rotating to Emerging Markets
Market Liquidity Not in
Decline, but Prone to Evaporate – IMF
Rise in Emerging Market
Corporate Debt Driven by Global Factors – IMF
Getting the Dog to Bark:
Disclosing Fiscal Risks from the Financial Sector – IMF
Monetary Policy
Transmission in Emerging Asia: The Role of Banks and the Effects of Financial
Globalization – IMF
Where did all the EM FX
bonds go? – FT
IMF warns of coming
spike in emerging market company failures – FT
IMF Flashes Warning
Lights for $18 Trillion in EM Corporate Debt – WSJ
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks Battered
Again as Health Care Takes Hit
Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Global Selloff Continues
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Health-Care, Biotech
Stocks Are Unloved
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Global Daily – ABN
AMRO
Catalonia’s election did not result
in a majority of votes for the pro-independence parties…but Spanish bonds will
continue to be driven by political uncertainty until the general election * ECB
officials send mixed signals on how quickly QE plus decision might come
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Lower inflation in Euro-area
countries: Euro-area inflation back to zero * Blood on the streets: yields
fall, USD king amid risk-off
Morning Markets – TF
European stock markets
are expected to open sharply lower this morning, following in the wake of their
Asian counterparts which were hammered as risk-off sentiment deepened across
the region. Risk aversion is the name of the game today.
Daily FX Comment – Marc
Chandler
Markets on Tenterhooks
Daily Shot – TF
Rates in the US will be hiked some
day, but Fed officials still do not seem to agree on the timing. Also, one
should think twice before jumping on Volkswagen's shares. Even after having
fallen below 100 euro there is downside risk potential.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Cameron warns refugee
crisis complicates debate on EU membership in UK as EU Migration Commissioner
tells member states to ignore its political cost * New poll shows lowest level
of support for Germany’s grand coalition since its formation * Moscovici argues
for establishment of a Eurozone Finance Minister within the European Commission
* EU blames US for stalling of TTIP negotiations * Formation of
pro-independence government in Catalonia remains uncertain * Spain reaches deal
with Commission on deferred tax assets
Brussels Playbook – Politico
TTIP half-baked —
Catalonia fallout — Merkel twilight?
US Open – ZH
Asian Equities Tumble On Commodity
Fears; US Futures Rebound After India "Unexpectedly" Eases More Than
Expected
Frontrunning – ZH
Weak risk sentiment continues to
dominate the proceedings here, with the usual suspects, the euro and yen, at
the top of the heap, while the commodity dollars and EM are getting the worst
of it in this environment. It’s tough to see what will turn the tide at the
moment.
Markets are broadly
lower today in the wake of yesterday's Glencore share price collapse and the
longer-running bout of weak risk sentiment.
FINNISH
Norjan
kruunu pysyy pinteessä * Euroalueelta tänään talouselämän luottamus sekä
alustavia inflaatiolukuja * Fedin Williams ja Dudley puhuivat koronnoston
puolesta * Ruotsin vähittäismyynti oli pettymys