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EUROPE
The euro had already failed to meet the expectations of its architects
before the crisis. Sharing currencies was unnecessary for economic convergence,
if not actively harmful. From CER conference.
New Direction’s flagship magazine, first edition, critical towards the
euro
During seven years of economic crisis, the intergenerational income and
wealth divide has increased in many European Union countries. This paper
reviews the pension reforms implemented by several countries and it provides
policy recommendations to address the intergenerational divide.
The European Commission’s first attempt this year’s at analysing the
effect of the demographic factor on EU economies in the short term. Moreover,
the Commission is making the next step by placing the issue of the refugee
crisis’ effect on the labour market and economy in general at a central spot in
its autumn economic forecast
Euro-Area Industrial Production Falls 0.3%, More Than Forecast – BB
Euro zone production falls more than expected in September – Reuters
5 Things to Watch in Eurozone’s Third-Quarter GDP – WSJ
PORTUGAL
Political uncertainty, but low systemic risk – Pictet
The saga is far from over – Open Europe
In Limbo as Finance Minister Evokes Ghost of Greece – BB
Change of government puts the country firmly in uncharted territory – Europp
MIGRANT CRISIS
German U-turn on Syrians: Merkel’s attempt to calibrate to reality – Open Europe
Sweden Imposes Temporary Border Controls Amid Refugee Crisis – BB
EU Leaders Court Turkey in Bid to Stem Flow of Refugees – BB
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Exclusive: ECB mulls buying debt of cities and regions – sources – Reuters
ECB Isn't Committed to More Easing Next Month, Coeure Says – BB
Speech Mario Draghi EU-parliament 12-Nov – ECB
Draghi Says Inflation Weakening as December Decision Nears – BB
Euro Weakens as Draghi Boosts Speculation of Deposit-Rate Cut – BB
Mario Draghi hints at expansion of QE – FT
Daniel Gros: ECB’s QE could backfire – Project Syndicate
UNITED STATES
OTHER
In an environment of
increased uncertainty, three significant transitions weigh on the global
outlook: (i) the Federal Reserve is poised to normalize monetary policy while
other major currency areas will likely be easing further; (ii) China's economy
is experiencing a needed moderation as it embarks on a historic and multi-year
rebalancing of its growth model; and (iii) the decade-long commodity super
cycle appears to be over. At the same time, international migration has become
a pressing economic issue for both sending and receiving countries,
particularly in light of the ongoing refugee crisis.
The markets’ pole star
is fading
Fed may increase key
rate in December as ECB adds stimulus * Citigroup, Credit Suisse see dollar
rising as policies split
The peaks and troughs of
rates have fallen over three decades * Deutsche Bank suggests ECB may never
lift deposit rate above 0
REGULARS
U.S. Stocks Continue Drift Downward
Central Bankers in Focus
Six Reasons One Strategist Thinks a
Pullback is Due
US rate hike liftoff in December,
followed by a slow pace of rate hikes * EUR/USD likely to reach parity in the
first half of 2016 * China data confirm gradual slowdown, divergence industry
and services
Fedspeak to signal December rate
hike? * German 2-year reaches a record low * USD weaker as Fed pace is
questioned
Last week's nonfarm
payrolls print blew past expectations and changed expectations for a December
Federal reserve rate hike from "possible" to
"near-definite". But was the blowout print just an anomaly? Today's
unemployment claims release will allow investors a closer look at the US
employment situation.
Dollar Firms, though Strong Jobs
Lifts Aussie, Awaiting Fed-Speak
Chinese industry remains under
pressure, and the slowdown in production is hitting already woefully low prices
of industrial metals, such as aluminium and zinc, as well as container shipping
rates. In the Eurozone, Portugal's rate spread to Germany has widened to the
broadest gap since the Greece debt crisis.
Sweden re-imposes border
controls as EU pledges up to €3.6bn to African countries * German Interior
Minister defends U-turn on Syrian refugees * Spanish Constitutional Court
suspends Catalan independence process, but injunction falls on deaf ears * Portugal
may lose eligibility for ECB bond-buying programme * US Congress has access to
secret TTIP documents while German Bundestag is cut off * Commission eyes
jointly funded Eurozone deposit guarantee scheme * ECB single supervisor makes
renewed push to harmonise Eurozone bank standards * Greece edges towards
release of next round of bailout funds * Draghi says signs of turnaround in
inflation are weakening
AUD squeezed sharply higher on the
latest erratic payrolls number out of Australia overnight, taking AUDUSD to key
resistance and AUDNZD to new local highs. Today, the focus will be on the gamut
of Fed big wigs out speaking on the economy, policy, and "FX
Transmission".
Gold's not lacking
physical buyers but the flight of paper investors ahead of next month's US
Federal Reserve rate decision when the expectation is for a rate hike is determining
the direction of price.
FINNISH
Juanin
hyväksyminen reservivaluutaksi on arvovaltakysymys * Tänään on luvassa Fedin
johtajien puheenvuoroja * Britannian työmarkkinat ovat erinomaisessa vedossa *
Raakaöljyn hinta laski 46 dollarin alapuolelle