Follow ‘MoreLiver’
on Twitter
EUROPE
Autumn 2015 European
Economic Forecast – European
Commission
EU Cuts Growth and
Inflation Outlook as ECB Decision Looms – BB
Charles Grant: 25 years
on: How the euro's architects erred – CER
A quarter of a century after the euro’s conception, the flaws in its
design have become apparent. EU leaders have fixed some of them but the euro
needs better policies in order to be a successful currency.
How to tackle Europe’s
non-performing loan problem – vox
This column explores the channels through which persistently high
non-performing loans hold down credit growth and economic activity. A survey of
EU authorities and banks reveals that the loans are not written-off for a
variety of deep-seated reasons, including legal and tax code issues. An agenda
is proposed comprising tightened bank supervision, structural bankruptcy
reforms, and the development of markets for distressed assets.
The lost Juncker
performance review – Politico
Some successes, a few whoppers and plenty of room for improvement.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Understanding Inflation
Dynamics and Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Environment – ECB
Vítor Constâncio, VP of ECB at “Challenges for Macroeconomic Policy in a
Low Inflation Environment”-conference
Economic Bulletin 7/2015 – ECB
Trade links between the euro area and China * Explaining the drivers
of the recent increase in oil price volatility * An assessment of recent euro
area consumption growth * New data on loans to the private sector adjusted for
sales and securitization * The creation of a European Fiscal Board * The
transmission of the ECB’s recent non-standard monetary policy measures * The
short-term fiscal implications of structural reforms
Is Europe's Economy So
Bad the ECB Will Run Out of Things to Buy? – BB
Some argue that if the central bank needs to ramp up asset purchases to
further spur growth, there may not be enough out there. Unless they change the
rules.
UNITED KINGDOM
Bank of England sees little inflation pick-up, markets push back rate
bets – Reuters
Carney Signals Bank of England Rate Can Stay Low as China Drags – BB
Strong GBP a concern, buys time before the December meeting– Danske
Bank
Britain's EU reform wishlist to be unveiled next week – minister – Reuters
UNITED STATES
EMPLOYMENT REPORT PREVIEWS
Preview: Employment Report for October – Bill
McBride
US jobs report preview: more support for December lift-off – Nordea
5 Things to Watch in the October Jobs Report - WSJ
FEDERAL RESERVE
What 2016 Might Bring – Tim
Duy
Assuming growth is not yet softening, a 25bp rate hike every other
meeting beginning in December is also a reasonable baseline for monetary
policy; if the Fed doesn't see that having an impact, they will likely step up
the pace. It should go without saying that a slowing economy is not to be
equated with a recession.
Feeling ignored, Fed
jolts markets to prime them for lift-off – Reuters
FOMC's Yellen, Dudley:
December Meeting is "Live" – Bill
McBride
U.S. productivity rises in the third quarter, manufacturing strong – Reuters
Unit Labor Costs Miss For 3rd Quarter In A Row – ZH
OTHER
Deflation Risks May
Warrant Radical New Central-Bank Thinking, the IMF’s Chief Economist Says – WSJ
I'll eat my hat if we
are anywhere near a global recession – The
Telegraph
The fiscal spigot is opening in the US, China and Europe, and the world's
money growth is near a 25-year high
Economy 2016: Here’s What You Need to Know – BB
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks Ease as Yellen Calls
December ‘Live’
Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Don’t Expect Fireworks
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Another Worry for the Stock Market
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Global Daily – ABN
AMRO
US data released on Wednesday show
that economy has started to shrug off the impact of the earlier financial
stress * US dollar strengthens as expectations for rate hike increase * But
stronger dollar leads to a renewed tightening of financial conditions
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Yellen still supports December Fed
hike; higher yields; stronger USD * Today focus on Bank of England and Norges
Bank * Draghi reiterates his stance, erasing confusion * The USD strengthens on
ADP
Morning Markets – TF
Bank of England governor
Mark Carney takes centre stage Thursday and with data starting to solidify, and
the noises coming out of the US getting ever louder, will he single out
February for a likely timeline?
Daily FX Comment – Marc Chandler
Daily Shot – TF
US Federal Reserve chairman Janet
Yellen delivered a clearly hawkish testimony to Congress, putting a December
Fed rate increase more squarely on the table, and the market now sees the
chances of a hike at 58%.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Irish think tank warns
Brexit could reduce UK-Irish trade by 20% * Handelsblatt: “Berlin and Brussels
should cooperate with the UK” on EU reform * France to ‘temporarily’ shut down
its borders as Sweden demands relocation of its refugees * Downing Street
denies rowing back on plans to restrict EU migrants’ access to benefits * EU
Single Market Commissioner: new powers needed to supervise national car
registration authorities * Conservative peer calls for equal spending limits
for both sides in EU referendum campaign * Morgan Stanley: ‘Brexit’ would see
UK growth sink to 1% * European Commission backs Uber and other ‘sharing
economy’ services * UK and other member states block MEPs access to documents
concerning multinationals’ tax * German industry orders on longest losing
streak since 2011
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Sweden shuts — Romanian
resignation — Data drama
US Open – ZH
S&P Futures Spike
Back Over 2100 On Central Banks, Yen Carry Levitation, China Bull Market
Frontrunning – ZH
Sterling is in focus on today’s
“Super Thursday”, featuring a BoE meeting and quarterly inflation report where
the bar is rather high for a hawkish surprise. This leaves interesting two-way
risks for GBPUSD in particular, given the strong USD backdrop before Friday's
US nonfarm payrolls.
The stubborn data have,
to all appearances, been whipped into line with the services sector and
payrolls coming in strong enough to raise the chances of a December rate hike
significantly.
FINNISH
Fed
nostaa joulukuussa - Yellen puhui eilen valtionlainakorot nousuun * USA:n
palvelusektorin luottamus lupaa hyvää työvoiman kysynnälle * Norjan
keskuspankki jättää korot tänään ennalleen