Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s
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LAST WEEK
Stocks
Soar Most In 13 Months After Worst European Terrorist Attack In Over A Decade
NEXT WEEK
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
Mon:
EZ PMIs Tue: German IFO, US Q3 GDP Thu: EZ M3 Fri: EZ confidence, UK GDP.
Week
Ahead – ZH
Food
stocks on the menu for Thanksgiving week
Weighing the Week
Ahead
– Dash
of Insight
There
is a lot of data to be reported in only three full trading days, but it does
not rate to signal important economic changes. I expect plenty of participants
to take the week off and even more will leave after the first hour on
Wednesday. The punditry still has pages and air time to fill, despite the lack
of fresh news. The punditry will be asking: What are the best year-end
investments?
EU
Week Ahead – WSJ
Next
week in the US (where markets are closed on Thursday), GDP growth for Q3 will
likely be revised upwards. In the Euro area, we expect only small changes to
the November flash PMIs (Mon) and the Ifo index (Tue). In the Nordics, focus
will be on new forecasts for Sweden and on Norges Bank's guidance.
Monday
European PMI slight rise * Tuesday German IFO slight rise, Norway oil investment
survey * Wednesday US PCE inflation.
Our
MacroScope models have turned positive for the first time in more than six
months * This is positive for equities, particularly European equities, neutral
for euro FI * Previous Fed rate hiking cycles suggest that the USD will weaken
after lift-off * CNY to weaken after RMB inclusion into SDR has been settled.
Draghi
has revamped his ‘whatever it takes language’ to show commitment to getting
inflation back up quickly…suggesting ECB will not only act in December, but
will also be decisive * Meanwhile, the Fed minutes point to a rate hike next
month
US
dollar remains in favour…and net long dollar positioning is far from extreme * The
outlook on EUR/USD remains negative because of monetary policy divergence
Weak
start emerging market currencies followed by modest recovery * Weaker
fundamentals weigh on Indonesia Rupiah * Gradual yuan depreciation expected
FX Outlook – Marc
Chandler
Chop
City, but Dollar Express Still on Track, Even if Slowly
Weekend notes:
Fed, ECB
– Marc
Chandler
Anticipating
December in November: When Cause Follows Effect
Weekly Market
Summary
– Fat
Pitch
The
trend is up: equities ended the week about 1% from their highs. Breadth is
improving and outperformance from small caps will further bolster participation.
Sentiment remains a tailwind, especially for US equities. There's no compelling
short term edge, but further upside into yearend remains the most likely
outcome. Equities have a tendency to give a good entry on weakness during the
next 6 weeks; that would likely provide attractive upside potential into
year-end.