Me: Why worry about politics in the eurozone ? The EZ
will not fly. If democracy will not accept that, the economics will force the
issue.
Z: ...or democracy will put an end to the EZ
Me: I don't think it will, but I did hope so. There are
market failures and democracy failures. Euro is both.
Z: Usually it's up to the market to give the final blow.
Me: I'd say euro is a
failure of the market (markets allowed it to exist) and of democracy
(which created it). Since 2010 markets have done what they could to break the
euro. Democracy failed to understand the message.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
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EUROPE
Staying Outside the Euro
Area Has a Price – euinside
There is no new expansion visible on the horizon, mainly because there
are no takers. Most states outside the euro area but are bound by treaties to
join, have no appetite for it. The reason usually is that while there is still
smoke coming out of the burning house it is not safe.
Tony Barber: The
eurozone’s fiscally lax nations are at it again – FT
France, Italy and Spain are slipping the EU’s budget leash
Surveys suggest 5-Star
Movement could win next Italian election – Reuters
Spain's Rajoy pins
re-election hopes on jobs pickup – TF
Paul Krugman: Flexible
Illusions – NYT
MIGRANT CRISIS
Operation Guilt Trip: Brussels heaps pressure on member states over
refugees – FT
Merkel Under Fire as Refugee Crisis Worsens – Spiegel
UNITED KINGDOM
Osborne To Call For Recognition That EU Is “Multi-Currency Union” – WSJ
Full text: George Osborne speech in Berlin – FT
Osborne’s Berlin speech: what he says and what he means – FT
Osborne seeks two-tier Europe enshrined in law – FT
Merkel gives qualified backing to Osborne’s EU reforms – FT
Osborne tells Germans it’s quid pro euro – Politico
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Transmission of the
ECB's recent non-standard monetary policy measures – ECB
ECB Report 2015Q3 – Place
du Luxembourg
Resilience in the face of localised instability
Euro Corporate Watch –
It could be a busy last six weeks – ABN
AMRO
October supply falls short of expectations * Low supply level has been
constructive for spreads * ECB QE Plus expectations boost investor risk
appetite * We expect supply volumes to pick up in the last six weeks * This
will slow down the tightening bias
UNITED STATES
US labour market monitor – Danske
Bank
October job growth to keep December hike in play
Are Wages Useful in
Forecasting Price Inflation? – FED
Wages generally provide less valuable insight into future prices than
some other indicators. In fact, models that do not incorporate wages often
result in superior inflation forecasts.
FEDERAL RESERVE
Gross Says Fed Should
‘Switch’, Not ‘Twist,’ to Revive Economy – BB
Bill Gross: Zero Rates
Are Breaking the Capital Markets – WSJ
5 Things to Watch in
Janet Yellen’s Congressional Testimony – WSJ
OTHER
Maurice Obstfeld: What Future for Unconventional
Monetary Policies – IMF
The upcoming IMF Jacques
Polak Annual Research Conference on
“Unconventional Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies” (November 5-6, 2015).
Advanced economies are so sick we need a new
way to think about them
– WaPo
Want to Grow the Economy? Might Be Time to
Unleash the Devil – INET
Is an ancient financial
taboo keeping us from prosperity? Adair Turner, author of a new book on global
finance, explains.
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks Rally, Dow Back in the
Green for 2015
Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Upcoming Jobs Data Stifles Activity
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Buyback Binge Looms for Stocks
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Global Daily – ABN
AMRO
ECB President Draghi sounds more
cautiousbut we still think further monetary easing is on the cards * Global
manufacturing PMI firms in October, though growth moderate helped by turn in
China’s Caixin index, and modest improvement in US and Eurozone
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Nasdaq at 15-year high, global
manufacturing outlook improves, higher bond yields * Improved outlook for
manufacturing sector * ECB easing prospects to limit upside for German yields *
EUR performs well
Morning Markets – TF
Today's data gives
investors a peek into the recoveries afoot in the Eurozone and the US.
Daily FX Comment – Marc
Chandler
A Few Brief Thoughts on FX
Daily Shot – TF
A look at the latest suite of manufacturing
reports shows a soft sector overall, but there are signs that the volatility
seen this year may finally be slowing down.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Osborne to detail part
of the UK’s EU reform push in Berlin speech * The Daily Mail: European
Commission considers ‘cash in exchange for migration control’ proposal * Merkel:
Closure of Austrian-German border could see re-emergence of “military
conflicts” in the Balkans * UK more likely to be outvoted in Council of Ministers
than any other EU member state * FT: ECB officials met bankers ahead of key
monetary policy decisions * ECB classification of asset managers as shadow
banks angers the industry * New poll: Majority of European financial
professionals expect two-tier Eurozone to emerge * Spanish Foreign Minister:
Catalonia “uprising” has to be “suffocated” * Belgian regional parliament calls
for suspension of negotiations over EU-US trade deal * Registered EU lobbyists
hit 6,000 mark
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Playbook Poll — France’s
elite thicket
US Open – ZH
Futures Flat Despite
More Weakness Among European Banks, Volkswagen; Another Apple Supplier Warning
Frontrunning – ZH
Traders continue to tread cautiously
on the US dollar ahead of Friday’s key employment report, but it’s decision
time soon for this market. The dollar can’t remain in tight ranges forever,
especially considering the time of year and potential for major central bank
moves over the next 6-8 weeks.
Nervous markets ahead of key US jobs
data this week are on the lookout for any signals that the European Central
Bank could be ready to boost its quantitative easing programme by year-end.
FINNISH
USA:n
teollisuuden vaikeudet jatkuvat * Suomen julkinen velka vaaravyöhykkeelle *
Britannian teollisuuden luottamus piristyi huimasti * Australian keskuspankki
piti ohjauskorkonsa ennallaan
Kun tieto ei kelpaa – Itä-Savo
Löytyykö Eurooppaa ja Suomea jäytävän talouskriisin
taustoista jokin suuri kertomus? Yksi vahva ehdokas on tutkimustietoon
perustuvien kriittisten äänten jääräpäinen sivuuttaminen.