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EUROPE
New VoxEU eBook: How to fix the Eurozone – vox
Important progress has
been made in repairing the design faults that the EZ Crisis revealed. This
column introduces a new VoxEU eBook which argues that fixing the Eurozone is a
job half done. The eBook, which presents 18 chapters by leading economists that
hail from a broad range of nations and schools of thought, is surely the most
comprehensive collection of solutions that has ever been assembled.
For European Banks 2016 Is Already Worse Than
2008 – ZH
European banks: a problem of profitability—but
not of liquidity or solvency – Pictet
European banks have been
underperforming the European equity market to much the same degree as US banks
have been underperforming the US market, suggesting that there is no specific
issue with European banks.
Sweden’s central bank Riks-rolls the market – FT
Euro area Q4 GDP okay
but the outlook has become more uncertain – Nordea
Eurozone GDP growth
steady in Q4 – ABN
AMRO
Euro-Area Maintains
Momentum as Turmoil Threatens Outlook – BB
UNITED STATES
Fed on hold: uncertainty set to keep Fed
sidelined – Danske
Bank
We now expect the Fed to
keep on hold until the September meeting, as we believe it will take some time
before the current high uncertainty on the outlook will clear. We think the Fed
will use the upcoming March FOMC meeting to signal a lower trajectory for the
Fed funds rate and state that it is on hold for now.
Fed Yet To Fully Embrace A New Policy Path – Tim
Duy
sure Yellen gave enough
this week to take March off the table. That said, policymakers will hesitate to
dramatically change their general policy outlook focused on higher rates.
Consequently, I anticipate Fedspeak with seemingly unrealistic hawkish
undertones. Essentially, they will leave the fear of policy error simmering on
the back-burner.
Yellen's dilemma: A downturn with no easy
response – Reuters
Retail Sales increased
0.2% in January – Bill
McBride
Retail Sales Beat Expectations
– ZH
U.S. consumers flex
muscle; import prices signal weak inflation – Reuters
U.S. Retail Sales
Increased in January in Broad-Based Advance – BB
OTHER
Global: market has
thrown down the recessionary gauntlet – Nordea
Martin Enlund: Global markets are behaving in a way consistent with a
rising probability of a US if not a global recession. European bank equities
are under pressure, and we may be seeing repatriation flows making the jobs of
BOJ and ECB supremely difficult. The market has seemingly thrown down the
(recessionary) gauntlet. Now it’s up to global policymakers to respond. Aside
from a 360 from the Fed, could the G20 meeting later in February stem the
bleeding?
[video] Have Central
Banks Run Out of Bullets? – BB
BNY Mellon Chief Currency Strategist Simon Derrick and Allianz Global
Investors' Andreas Utermann discusses negative interest rates and central banks
monetary policies.
Racked Markets Hand
Verdict to Central Banks on Sub-Zero Rates – BB
More than $8 trillion erased from global equities this year * Negative
rates hurt banks as unconventional policies backfire
The Trouble With CoCos – View
/ BB
If regulators want to protect taxpayers and make the banking system more
resilient, they’d be better off just requiring more equity.
[video] Why Hasn't QE
Improved Nominal Growth Outlook Globally? – BB
Allianz Global Investors' Andreas Utermann discusses quantitative easing
and the global economy
REGULARS
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Equity meltdown, Riksbanken goes
deeper into NIRP, OPEC ready to cut? * Euro-area GDP could disappoint * The
German 10-year goes below 0.2%, while Riksbanken lowers repo to -0.5% * The JPY
and EUR gains on safe haven bid
Morning Markets – TF
The Nikkei plunged nearly 5% on
Friday as fears of a global economic slowdown propelled the yen further against
the dollar and investors turned away from equities to seek safety in government
bonds and gold.
Daily FX Comment –
Marc
Chandler
A Bit of a Pre-Weekend Reprieve in
Europe, but Return of China on Monday is Worrisome
Daily Shot – TF
Deutsche Bank
downgraded: the markets are in turmoil from New York to Seoul but there is a
special place at the storm's very centre reserved for Deutsche Bank.
Matt Levine’s Money Stuff
– View / BB
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
France and Germany
digging in over non-Eurozone banking rules in UK-EU deal * Cameron to hold
final meeting with Merkel ahead of crunch EU summit * Podemos calls on Rajoy to
veto UK-EU deal * Over 130 Tory councillors call on Cameron to lead Brexit
campaign in wake of ‘failed’ renegotiation * We will “open the doors” for
millions of migrants to Europe Turkish President warns * Demographic time-bomb
could see German debt to GDP ratio rise to 220% Finance Ministry warns * IMF
warns weaker reform path in Greece would mean more debt relief needed * Eurozone
leaders defend new bank bail-in rules * Eurogroup embraces greater transparency
in agreeing to publish more detailed summaries of meetings * US now believes
agreement on TTIP can be struck before end of Obama Presidency * Portugal
agrees to line up additional deficit cuts to ensure compliance with Eurozone * German
GDP grew 0.3% in last quarter of 2015, in line with expectations * US Treasury
Secretary expresses “serious concerns” over fairness of EU tax treatment of US
firms
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Syria progress — NATO
migration deal — Dem debate
US Open – ZH
Despite Crashing Japan, European,
U.S. Markets Rebound On Firmer Oil
Frontrunning – ZH
Japan was back from
holiday and in a sour mood after a glance at the JPY exchange rates but Europe
is trying to put a brave face on this morning at the end of a traumatic week.
US retail sales up later today.
It's official: global
equities as measured by the MSCI World All Countries index are in a bear market
and Saxo Bank equities head Peter Garnry says this is no time to try and time
the bounce.
FINLAND & FINNISH
Euroalueen
BKT-luvut julkaistaan * Markkinoiden pelkotilat leimasivat markkinaliikkeitä
eilen * Riksbankin yllätys heikensi kruunua hyvin maltillisesti, Riksbankin
eväät on syöty