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EUROPE
There will not
necessarily be a formal break-up of the EU, but it will become less effective
Closer fiscal integration is unavoidable if the
Eurozone is to survive
– Europp
In the long run, radical
reforms at the Eurozone level are needed if the monetary union is to survive,
although it is still admissible to allow non-Eurozone countries to follow a
weaker form of integration.
The Riksbank is probing The Outer Limits of
monetary policy – Shaun
Richards
MIGRANT
CRISIS
Cutting The Balkan Route
Has Stranded 1000s Of Migrants In Greece – ZH
Europe’s refugee
surge: Economic and policy implications – vox
Merkel Channels
Varoufakis: “No Plan B,” in This Case, on Migrants – Yves
Smith
Is This Angela Merkel’s
Plan B? – ECFR
BREXIT
How would post-Brexit
trade deals actually work? – Europp
Cameron Says Supporters
of EU Exit Are Being ‘Extremely Vague’ – BB
London Mayor Says
Britain Would Have Bright Future Outside EU – BB
Those Who Love Brussels,
Step Forward! – euinside
UK government: Brexit
would mean ‘decade of uncertainty' – Politico
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
Trying to prop up
confidence by hook or crook.
Euro area core inflation
fell - additional pressure on ECB – Danske
Bank
After €670 Billion In
QE, Inflation Plunges To -0.2% – ZH
UNITED STATES
Fed Doves Still Have The Upper Hand For March – Tim
Duy
Inflation concerns are
not likely to prompt a the Fed to hike rates in March. Financial market issues
will dominate; like it or not, the Fed cannot separate the financial system
from the real economy. The former is signaling it requires a looser policy stance
to compensate for the stronger dollar. It would be tempting fate to ignore that
signal. Be wary, however, of a hawkish message sent through the statement.
US Labour Market Monitor – Danske
Bank
Slower jobs growth but not a disaster
OTHER
Brainard says Fed policy
path may be lower than anticipated * Praet says weakening indicators are
warning sign for ECB
Global imbalance risk and exchange rates – vox
The world’s savings and
investments are imbalanced. While some countries persistently borrow over time,
others act like bankers to the world – lending year in and year out. This
column argues that these imbalances matter for asset pricing in financial
markets, and are key to understanding excess returns in currency markets.
Steen Jakobsen’s Stress Indicators – TF
New banking and refugee
crises may loom * Risk is on relative to the mid February scare but post G20 we
remain very alert to March risks.
EX-BOE-HEAD’S
BOOK
Mervyn King: the
eurozone is doomed – The
Telegraph
King: Why throwing money
at financial panic leads into a new crisis – The
Telegraph
King: 'Forgive them
their debts’ is not the answer – The
Telegraph
King: Bankers have not
learnt the lessons of the Great Crash – The
Telegraph
BUFFETT’S
LETTER
Warren Buffet’s annual
letter – Berkshire Hathaway
3 Takeaways From Warren
Buffett’s 2015 Annual Letter – WSJ
Value Is the Word From
Buffett – View / BB
Warren Buffett's
Shareholder Letter, Annotated – BB
G-20
MEETING
G-20 Reaffirms
No-Devaluation Pledge, to Consult on Currencies – BB
G-20 Seeks
Infrastructure Push to Help Boost Global Economy – BB
G20 to say world needs
to look beyond ultra-easy policy for growth – Reuters
Japan, Not China,
Emerges as Currency Worry at G-20 Meeting – BB
G-20 Wants Governments
Doing More, and Central Banks Less – BB
G20 appears set to warn
on perils of Brexit – FT
Lagarde Calls for Bold,
Broad and Accelerated Policy Actions – IMF
"Tepid,
Uninspiring" G20 Proves Investor Hopes Were "Pure Fantasy" – ZH
El-Erian: The G-20
Misses Its Sputnik Moment – View / BB
G20 Hopes for a Cure – Robert Kahn
REGULARS
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Firmer dollar, Brent at USD 35.5 but
Shanghai down another 4% * Euro-area inflation and Nordic GDP numbers today * Intra-Euro-area
spreads likely to narrow ahead of ECB * USD helped by rise in risk appetite
Morning Markets – TF
It's shaping up to be a rocky start
to a busy week with Chinese shares mired in the red (though off intraday lows)
a lower yuan fix set by the Peoples Bank of China and continued Brexit fears
still weighing on sterling.
Daily FX Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Dollar Mixed, While Equities Skid
Daily Shot – TF
Prices in the US are
accelerating - at least a bit and in particular four housing and healthcare. A
rate hike later this year is still thinkable. Not so in the Eurozone where
inflation expectations are at record lows. In major other economies rate cuts
are seen likely.
Matt Levine’s Money Stuff
– View
/ BB
Benign Ownership, Buffett’s
Letter and Opaque ETFs
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
David Cameron: A vote to
leave the EU is the “gamble of the century” * Belgian PM: After Brexit, UK
“can’t have all the advantages of access to the single market and assume none
of the consequences” * ORB poll finds lead for Leave but withdrawal viewed as
riskier option * Industry, from airlines to fund managers, divided over Brexit
impact * Boris Johnson or Michael Gove expected to represent Leave campaign in
key BBC Brexit debate * There is no ‘Plan B’ for migrant crisis, says defiant
Merkel * Former Bank of England Governor warns Eurozone must break up if some
members are ever to prosper again * UK Government stats show £886m welfare bill
for unemployed EU migrants in 2013-14 * Nobel Prize winner warns of Brexit
risks to UK science * New Democracy leader appeals for alliance of reformers in
Greece * US agrees to clear limits on use of European citizens’ data as part of
new pact with EU
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Iran election — Irish
nail-biter — Merkel on migration
US Open – ZH
China's Panicked RRR Cut Leads To
Feeble Stock Rebound; Gold Resumes Climb
Frontrunning – ZH
The G20 brought a
supportive statement to global markets but the market was a bit ahead of itself
with expectations for more. Meanwhile the focus swings to this week’s key US
data and whether the markets continue to underestimate the US economy.
The G20 meeting is now
behind us leaving all manner of carefully parsed words but little in terms of
specific initiatives. This has left markets in a state of familiar
indecisiveness but do the latest US data signal a return to the rate hike
story?
FINLAND & FINNISH
Ei
apua öljyn hinnan rauhoittumisesta * USA:n Q4:n BKT-lukuja korjattiin ylöspäin *
Ruotsin talous kasvaa vahvasti * USA:n työmarkkinat vahvistuvat edelleen
Suomen maaraportti 2016 – Euroopan
Komissio
”johon
sisältyy perusteellinen tarkastelu makrotalouden epätasapainojen ehkäisemisestä
ja korjaamisesta”
Eurokriisi
on tyvenessä mutta ei ohi. Seuraava velkapommi kytee jo, ja se on entistä vaarallisempi.
Se kytee yhdessä alueen suurimmista maista, Italiassa. Saksa haluaa purkaa
pommin tavalla, joka voi räjäyttää sen.
Todellinen
kasvu lähtee Suomessa liikkeelle vasta, kun investoinnit lähtevät kasvuun ja
leikkaaminen loppuu.