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EUROPE
New Italian document highlights growing demand
for further EU reform – Open
Europe
The Italian government
has published a new ‘position paper’ outlining a set of proposals for the
future of Eurozone and EU integration. Some of the proposals would require EU
Treaty change. Open Europe’s Vincenzo Scarpetta argues that the Italian document
shows the demand for further EU reform is growing in other countries – a very
encouraging sign for the UK.
When consolidation is implemented
via a cut in government primary spending, the debt ratio, after an initial increase,
falls to below its pre-shock level. When instead the consolidation is implemented
via an increase in government revenues, the initial increase in the debt ratio
is stronger and, eventually, the debt ratio reverts to its pre-shock level,
resulting in what we call self-defeating austerity.
George Magnus: Have Brexiteers not heard of the
“trilemma”? – Prospect
"Outside the EU we
would still be subject to 700 international treaties"
Ifo Business Climate Index Drops Sharply – CESifo
UNITED STATES
Is the intrinsic value of macroeconomic news announcements
related to their asset price impact? – ECB
US manufacturing woes set to continue – Danske
Bank
OTHER
Japan – After rate cut BoJ still needs to do
more – ABN
AMRO
REGULARS
Oil has bottomed and new forecasts
for the Riksbank and Bank of Japan * Oil price trajectory dependent on Iran * Riksbank
more hawkish than expected * Sterling hit by Brexit fears
Morning Markets – TF
Sterling is labouring under another
blast of Brexit angst after traders pitched it to a seven-year low against the
US dollar yesterday despite UK prime minister David Cameron's attempts to
assuage concerns that the country might vote itself out of the European Union.
By contrast equities adopted a sanguine tone and the FTSE 100 finished
yesterday's session 1.47% ahead though it is tipped to open on a weaker note
today.
Daily FX Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Euro and Sterling are Sold into
Upticks, Yen Firms Further
Matt Levine’s Money Stuff
– View
/ BB
Brexit Plans and CoCo
Confusion
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Cameron: Government
would promptly trigger Article 50 in the event of a Leave vote
Business leaders warn
Brexit would risk investment and jobs * Boris Johnson comes under fire from
London Assembly for decision to back Brexit * French Foreign Minister:
“Everyone has to accept a differentiated Europe” * Italy proposes common bonds
to fund EU response to migrant crisis * Child-benefit curbs in UK-EU deal could
save Berlin €200m a year * Poll: Dutch voters want their own EU referendum and
result would be tight * New study: scrapping Schengen could cost Europe
trillions of euros * Greece fears becoming migrant bottleneck as Macedonia
imposes border restrcitions * Spain: Ciudadanos leader suggests next 48 hours
will be crucial to seal government pact with Socialists * ECB hints at tiered
negative deposit rate to reduce pressure on banks * Greek opposition leader
says he would choose fresh elections over unity government
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Renzi’s reign — Cameron
alone — German migration troubles
US Open – ZH
Is The Short Squeeze Over? Global
Rally Fizzles, Futures Lower
Frontrunning – ZH
The USD is weak but the
euro and sterling are weaker still as the majors are all in a race to the
bottom against the Japanese yen at the moment as the BoJ's Kuroda second
guesses the efficacy of money printing.
China's central bank
fixed the yuan at its lowest level since February 5 overnight which knocked
sentiment across Asian equity markets. Meanwhile the pound sterling remains
under pressure from worries about the chances of Britain leaving the European
Union once its citizens vote in a June referendum.
FINLAND & FINNISH
Miinuskorot
eivät ole plussa taloudelle * Euroalueen ostopäällikköindeksit viittaavat
tahmaavaan talouskasvuun * Euro heikkeni maanantaina laajalla rintamalla *
Raakaöljyn hinta kohosi 35 dollarin tuntumaan