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EUROPE
Predictions of EU boom
are as hubristic as those of its bust
BREXIT
[video 3min] Short View:
Brexit and the euro – FT
HSBC’s Brexit Forecast:
Sterling Could Tumble 20% – WSJ
HSBC’s Brexit base case:
the abyss – FT
UK Article IV
Consultation Press Release – IMF
United Kingdom: Selected
Issues – IMF
IMF Concludes 2015 UK’s Article
IV Consultation – IMF
IMF chief warns against
Brexit – Politico
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
The ECB looks set to cut
its deposit rate much further…but has indicated that it wants to take steps to
cushion the blow for banks * A tiered rate system seems to be the most likely
approach…but a refi rate cut, a new set of TLTROs and a willingness to take on
more risk in accepting collateral or in its ABS programme are also
possibilities
Is the ECB doomed to disappoint? – TF
The recent batch of
economic data has been so weak that the European Central Bank's earlier
promises to ease further have to be redeemed at the March meeting.
Unfortunately so much is already expected that investors could be disappointed
in the ECB's timidness.
UNITED STATES
The Fed is on hold. No
clear end to the pause. But be wary that some Presidents might want something
in return for that pause.
OTHER
The market turbulence
that characterized the beginning of 2016 has shown tentative signs of easing,
Still, the coming weeks will be characterized by more central bank easing
expectations, and we expect the ECB to deliver. A bit later on, the markets
need to reprice the Fed outlook, as the next hike we anticipate for June
approaches. The emerging markets should be past the worst.
Martin Wolf: Helicopter drops might not be far
away – FT
No simple solutions for
the global economic imbalances of today exist, only palliatives
G-20
G-20 Hopes Crushed: Jack
Lew Says "Don't Expect A Crisis Response" – ZH
What the G20 Can Do to
Help the Global Recovery – iMFdirect
G20 Surveillance Note – IMF
REGULARS
Stocks dive, little news to move
major markets, oil survey to guide NOK * Figures crucial for Norges Bank’s view
* Status quo for European rates until ECB * Scandies approach key levels, NOK
may gain on oil survey
Asian stocks fell on Wednesday as
oil was knocked overnight by remarks from Opec producers Saudi Arabia and Iran,
which undermined a production freeze agreed among four nations.
Market Anxiety Heightened, Oil and
Stocks Head Lower, Sterling Can't Catch a Bid
With the oil price
remaining relatively low deflation pressure in several countries Brexit fears
and German industrial and trade expectations sharply declining markets are
still far from calm. Where is the money going?
Matt Levine’s Money Stuff
– View / BB
Poll: British
Euroscepticism nears all-time high but majority favour remaining EU member * Czech
PM: Brexit could trigger debate about leaving the EU in our country too * Belgium
suspends Schengen as EU border agency warns migrant arrivals up 600% * Cabinet
secretary draws up new rules restricting civil servants’ ability to assist
pro-Brexit ministers * Carney: Bank of England is making contingency plans in
event of Brexit * Market players warn ECB could run short of sovereign bonds to
buy
Brussels Playbook –
Politico
Cameron taps Obama aide
— Migration angst — Borders are back
Risk Off: US Equity Futures Tumble
To 1,900 Support; Sterling Crashes, Gold Soars
Frontrunning – ZH
EURUSD needs to get to higher ground
soon if it isn’t to fall through the thin ice at 1.1000. Elsewhere sterling
remains surprisingly weak given some fresh evidence of stronger support for
Britain to stay in the European Union after last week’s summit.
Financial markets love a
good animal metaphor but for all of the hawks doves bulls and bears stalking
our commentary we still lack a zoological code-word for the specific cocktail
of weaknesses we are seeing right now. Maybe a cup of coffee will help us
concentrate...
FINLAND & FINNISH
Saksa
pehmenee * Saudi-Arabialta ei ole luvassa leikkauksia öljyn tuotantoon * Norjan
öljyinvestoinnit jatkavat putoamistaan * Fischer painotti Fedin olevan
tarkkailumoodissa