Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter
EUROPE
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
The ECB will run out of
German bonds – ABN
AMRO
The role of non-monetary
financial institutions in financial intermediation – ECB
The challenge of low
real interest rates for monetary policy – ECB
MIGRATION CRISIS
Turkey to miss visa-free
travel deadline – Politico
BREXIT
Remain camp wants
last-ditch EU talks on open borders – Politico
Surge in support for
Brexit gives Remain just 1 point lead: poll – Politico
Norway to Britain: Don’t
leave, you’ll hate it – Politico
Brexit could revitalize
EU, says Commissioner Günther Oettinger – Politico
The Post Brexit Budget –
Tony Yates
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL
RESERVE
Larry Summers: The Fed is making the same mistakes over and over
again – WaPo
El-Erian: What the Fed
Will and Won’t Do – View / BB
Statement – FED
Economic Projections – FED
Kocherlakota: The Fed
Needs More Than One Direction – View
/ BB
The Fed Just Said Market
Participants Were Right About Rates – WSJ
How the June Statement
Changed from April – WSJ
The Market Reaction to
the Fed in Six Charts – WSJ
Investors Solidify Views
on a Slow-Go Fed – WSJ
Fed: Labor Market
"Will Strengthen" But Slashes Rates Hike Trajectory – ZH
Fed leaves rate
unchanged amid job market slowdown, Brexit fears – WaPo
Redacted Version of the
June 2016 FOMC Statement – Aleph
Merkel
Economists React: ‘Too
Many Uncertainties’ – WSJ
Fed Softens Stance
Slightly – Marc
Chandler
Fed Skips June Increase
as Six Officials See One 2016 Hike – BB
Fed leaves interest
rates unchanged, signals two hikes this year – Reuters
OTHER
Another boundary once
considered insurmountable was breached, when the German 10-year yield hit
negative territory. More than 85% of German government debt now trades at
negative yields. While a sub-zero 10-year yield says a lot about the current
market environment, the zero limit does not have the significance it once had
any more. Despite the looming Brexit vote, the near-term risk picture is
shifting towards a correction higher in yields, with ECB purchases
strengthening the moves both ways.
Price-action over the
past week or two probably mostly driven by technical purchases as market
participants found themselves wrongfooted by the surge in Brexit likelihood.
The lion’s share of these positioning adjustments should be done by now. Even
if exit probability rises further, a jump from 40% to say 60% should matter
much less than the recent surge from 20% to 40%. How much clarity the
referendum will offer for markets is another matter worth pondering.
Kuroda and the BOJ – Marc Chandler
REGULARS
Brexit fears prevail, hesitant FOMC
to stand pat, BoJ to cut * July, September or even later? * Breaking below zero
* JPY, CHF and USD benefit from safe haven flows, while GBP bears the brunt
Equity markets are showing signs of
a cautious recovery after shares in Tokyo escaped a four-day losing streak and
ended modestly higher helped by a weaker yen. But the underlying tone remains
tinged with Brexit fears and the yield on the bellwether 10-year bund future
has only just managed to claw its way above zero having pitched into the
negative zone yesterday.
Euro wrap-up
– Daiwa
Daily Market Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Four Developments Ahead of the FOMC
Meeting
Quantifying the Brexit premium and
the Walking Dead, Season 8
Daily Market Comment
– Polemic’s Pains
Leave camp lays out more
details of post Brexit plan as Osborne warns of more austerity in event of
Leave vote * Splits emerge within Labour over future restrictions on free
movement * Norwegian PM: Norway pays a price for not being able to take part in
the EU decision making process * Brexit could revitalise the EU says German
Commissioner * ECB would pledge to support markets in the event of Brexit * Rolls-Royce
and Marks & Spencer chiefs warn prospect of Brexit affecting consumer
confidence * EU member states strike deal on new rules for Money Market Funds *
Greek bailout funds expected to be paid out by next week * Financial
Transaction Tax faces last ditch talks * Merkel’s Union loses another point in
the polls as AfD gains * Turkey to miss June deadline for visa-free travel into
Schengen
Desperation at No. 10 —
Terror latest — MEP ethics
US Open – ZH
All Eyes On Yellen As Global Stocks
Rebound Despite Brexit Fears, Record Low Yields
Frontrunning – ZH
As the market continues
to obsess over the UK referendum the BoE and ECB have promised to keep markets
orderly on the other side of a possible Brexit vote. Tonight’s FOMC meeting
could prove a minor distraction.
A Brexit poll prediction
for a narrow Remain victory has helped pull 10-year German bund yields out of
negative territory and stabilised sterling.
FINNISH