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EUROPE
Editorial:Europe Needs Investment More Than
Budget Rules – View
/ BB
Portugal is Europe's next looming economic
disaster – BI
Greece under Troika rule – Simon
Wren-Lewis
Brexit: Final countdown – Nordea
With three weeks to go
to the UK referendum on EU membership, it still seems to be an open race. As we see it, all the arguments have been
exchanged, and now it’s waiting for the result that will be out late on the
23rd or early on the 24th. In the
attached presentation, we updated our take on the referendum and especially in
case of an unexpected majority for the Brexiteers.
Yanis Varoufakis: The ECB’s Illusory
Independence – Project
Syndicate
In one sense, the ECB is
a quintessentially independent central bank: No single government stands behind
it, and it is expressly prohibited from standing behind any of the national
governments whose central bank it is. And yet the ECB is the least independent
central bank in the developed world.
The ECB Faces a June Conundrum – WSJ
UNITED STATES
US Labour Market Monitor – Danske
Bank
May jobs report an
important factor for Fed’s rate decision
How the Fed Stopped the “Corporate Profit
Recession” – Wolf
Street
Narayana Kocherlakota: There Goes the Fed's
Credibility – View
/ BB
OTHER
OECD
Global Economic Outlook –
OECD
Stuck in low-growth
trap: Policymakers need keep promises – OECD
OECD Blasts Governments
for Slipping Into ‘Low-Growth Trap’ – BB
OECD Chief Economist:
"urgent need" to deploy fiscal policy– Prime
Economics
Why the global economy
may need to get worse before it gets better – The
Guardian
Can OPEC Surprise? – Marc Chandler
Interactive: How OPEC won the battle and lost
the war – BB
Moore’s Law vs. Murphy’s Law in the financial
system: who’s winning?
– BIS
EM FX: changing driver – Nordea
Commodity prices have been
the key driver of EM FX performance this year. The USD is gradually taking the
driver’s seat as the Fed is being repriced. Fed-induced risk-off normally hits
the largest current account deficits, like ZAR and TRY, the hardest. Bear in
mind, though, that current account deficits are much lower today than when
Bernanke first said “tapering”. The stronger USD is pushing USD/CNY towards the
year-highs from January which risks prompting another round of capital
outflows.
REGULARS
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Stocks slide after slump in oil
prices; CNY fixing weakest since 2011 * US manufacturing revival to prove
short-lived? * Chinese PMIs: no major surprises – no signs of improvement
Morning Markets – TF
June has got off to a surly start
after Asian bourses tracked their US counterparts lower and sterling was
pressured by opinion polls that upped the chances of a British exit from the
EU.
Euro wrap-up –
Daiwa
Daily Market Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Dollar Moves Lower, but Sterling
Can't get Out of its Own Way
Daily Market Comment
– Macro Man
Daily Shot – TF
We've got some good new
on Eurozone joblessness (Italy excepted) but there's also disappointing stats
showing a slowdown in household lending in the bloc. Elsewhere Japan's economic
difficulties persist and its labour shortages remain a problem to be solved.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Former French Foreign
Minister: EU needs “a pause” in further integration * Juncker: France gets
leeway from EU Commission on deficit reduction “because it’s France!” * Bank of
Italy Governor: EU rules should leave “greater scope” for state intervention in
bank crises * Germany failing to deport failed asylum-seekers * €900 million
from EU budget lost to fraud * US issues travel warning over possible terror
attacks in Europe * ECJ legal advice: Companies can ban religious symbols,
including headscarves * German Foreign Minister: Ease sanctions on Russia
‘step-by-step’
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Selmayr insider — France
gets EC leeway because it’s France
US Open – ZH
Global Stocks, US Futures Slide On
Mediocre Manufacturing Data, Yen Surge
Frontrunning – ZH
Despite official
confirmation overnight that Japan will delay a sales tax hike the yen headed
back to the upside amid generally weak risk appetite. Elsewhere a fresh UK poll
showing a stronger "Leave" vote than other recent polls pounded
sterling for steep losses.
Today's European open
comes hot on the heels of a mixed Asian session characterised by Japanese
caution mediocre Chinese data and a significant Australian GDP beat. The
resulting risk-off climate sent the JPY up by nearly 1%.
FINNISH
Kiinan
tehdasteollisuuden vakautuminen hauraalla pohjalla * USA:ssa yksityinen kulutus
kiihtyi huhtikuussa * Punta heikentyi Brexit-riskien ajamana * Tänään
julkaistaan USA:n teollisuuden luottamus (ISM)
Eurosta ulos vai euro
uusiksi? – Vasemmistofoorumi
Puolueiden on opittava
yrityksiltä – EVA Pamfletti– EVA