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EUROPE
"This way Lagarde can go to the board and say, hey, 'I'm not
violating our rules' and Schaeuble, whose government is facing an election next
fall, can say, 'see, I have the IMF on board'"
Europe's largest economy Germany will hold elections in roughly a year
but it is not clear whether chancellor Angela Merkel will run again. In this
first of a two-parter we look at Merkel's position on the international stage
before examining her domestic standing.
Eurogroup to greenlight
€2.8bn Greek aid – Moscovici – FT
UNITED KINGDOM
Theresa May's Reckless Gamble on a "Hard" Brexit – PIIE
May must resist her party’s dangerous instincts – The Economist
“Brexit is Brexit”, even after a couple of beers – ABN
AMRO
After May's Brexit pledge, Europeans close ranks – Reuters
Merkel’s Brexit warning – FT
May’s Brexit Tone Heard by Euro Finance Chiefs Bracing for Talks – BB
BANKS
DBK’s Cryan Doesn’t Reach Accord With U.S., Bild Says – BB
DBK CEO fails to reach 'deal' with DOJ: Bild – ZH
DBK’s distress is symptomatic of a wider malaise – The Economist
Banks Are Unloved Everywhere, Not Just Europe – BB
ECB Allowed DBK To Cheat In Latest Stress Test, FT Reports – ZH
Deutsche Bank was given special treatment in EU stress tests – FT
UNITED STATES
US election monitor – Danske
Bank
Clinton regains a significant lead
OTHER
Far from stepping back,
top central banks are set to double down – Reuters
A steady flow of research and a new tone in the debate among policymakers
and advisers points in a different direction: rather than retreat, central
banks are preparing for the day they may need to do more, even at the risk of
antagonizing politicians who argue they already have too much power.
Norway to withdraw $15 billion from sovereign wealth fund * Cash needed
to help fill an 8 percent budget shortfall
Macro Monday: Waiting
for the dust to settle – TF
Given the high impact events of last week we need to wait for the dust to
settle to determine if the markets are coming or going.
Bengt Holmström, Nobel
Laureate – Tyler
Cowen
Matt Levine’s Money
Stuff – BB
FX Trades and Hypothetical Deals * Deutsche Bank * Banking salaries *
Twitter * Insider trading * Trump and governance * Bond market liquidity
IMF / WORLD BANK ANNUAL MEETING
Draghi: ECB could hit inflation target by late 2018, early 2019 – Reuters
Draghi: ECB could hit inflation target by late 2018, early 2019 – Reuters
BOJ's Kuroda vows to cut rates, buy more assets to fight shocks – Reuters
IMF members to push spending, revive trade to boost growth – Reuters
Global Elites Step Up Defense of Openness as Populism Rises – BB
WEO: Subdued Demand: Symptoms and Remedies – IMF
WEO Data Forum Database – IMF
GFSR: Fostering Stability in a Low-Growth, Low-Rate Era – IMF
Fiscal Monitor Database – IMF
GBP FLASH CRASH
UBS: Why this is more than a flash crash in sterling – FT
Breakevens and the Great British Peso – FT
A Look Inside The Crash: What Really Happened In Those 30 Seconds – ZH
Pound’s Dramatic Week Leaves Traders Skeptical of Quick Recovery – BB
Brutal Week Batters British Markets as Brexit Risks Crystallize – BB
El-Erian: Seven Things to Know About the Pound's Depreciation – BB
Sorry, but the FX market can simply be gappy too – FT
GBP, inflation and the BoE, choose your own adventure edition – FT
Pound Fails to Shake Off Wounded Image After Week of Flash Crash – BB
Liquidity Illusion Burns Traders Blindsided by Pound’s Crash – BB
OFF-TOPIC
Why America’s longest war will remain a muddle for the next president. If
only Trump or Clinton were paying attention.
How did a substance that falls from the air, springs from the earth and
comes out of your tap become a hyperactive multibillion-dollar business?
REGULARS
Danske Daily
– Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener
– Nordea
GBP flash crash shadowed NFP, CNY
weaker, Clinton ahead as Peso strengthens * Norwegian and Danish inflation
today * Bund yield at three week high * GBP in flash crash * CNY in 6 year low.
Morning Markets
– TF
The second US presidential debate
was a brawling affair as Donald Trump attempted to punch his way out of days of
embarrassing headlines.
Euro wrap-up
– Daiwa
Daily Market Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Dollar Firm, but Canadian Dollar and
Mexican Peso Respond Favorably to US Politics
Daily Market Comment
– Macro
Man
An interesting 24 hours
Daily Press Summary
– Open
Europe
Brussels Playbook
– Politico
US Open – ZH
Stocks Levitate After Dramatic
Debate; Yuan Tumbles To 6 Year Low; Bonds Closed For Columbus Day
Frontrunning
– ZH
FX Update
– TF
Friday’s indifferent US jobs report
failed to spark strong directional interest in the greenback but sterling
closed the week at very low levels and the negative spiral could be set to
continue this week. Elsewhere USDJPY rally attempt needs to find support soon
to maintain bullish interest.
From the Floor –
TF
Donald Trump really ought to be out
of the ring now but in this most remarkable of campaigns there is still life in
his campaign yet as a reversal in USDMXN points to the extraordinarily partisan
nature of this campaign.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus
– Nordea
USA:n työllisyysluvut hienoinen pettymys markkinoille * Trumpin
kannatus laskussa * USA:n tapahtumat pääroolissa tällä viikolla * Punta pysynyt
heikkona viime viikon äkkipudotuksen jäljiltä