Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s ‘Weekly Support’ is here.
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LAST WEEK
Bonds
Battered, Copper Clubbed, Stocks Slide As China Currency Crumbles
NEXT WEEK
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
Clinton-Trump
3.0, ECB Rates, China GDP * Goldman, Morgan Stanley, BofA top U.S. banks’
earnings reports
An
EU Summit (With May), Trade, Russia
Investors
seek profit turnaround to drive stocks higher
Weighing the Week
Ahead: Jeff
Miller
We
have normal week for economic data, and a big week for earnings reports. The
last Presidential debate will grab headlines. We have been monitoring these
factors for weeks, but something new is showing up in the data. Let’s call it a
“stealth rotation” from bonds to stocks and from bond substitutes to less
favored stocks. If the punditry carefully watches the data, they will be
asking: Has a market rotation begun?
Global: Recent data are rather positive.
Medium and long term challenges remain * US: After the FOMC maintained a
“hawkish-dovish” status quo in late September, the meeting’s minutes were
awaited with impatience. In the end they did not shed much more light on which
way the balance is tipping. However, the hawks did manage to surprise us with a
new argument in favour of a key rate increase: they claim the Fed’s credibility
is at stake.
The
ECB takes centre stage and we expect no changes to monetary policy. In the US,
CPI and industrial production data releases will be the main event of the
upcoming week along with the third TV debate between Clinton and Trump. To the
East, the release of Q3 GDP growth will shed light on the state of the Chinese
economy.
US
September CPI, ECB meeting, China’s GDP, industrial production, retail sales,
fixed investments – and British data and Brexit resiliency
The
global growth picture continues to be one of muddling through * Political
uncertainty is causing concern among investors * MacroScope signals have gone
from negative to neutral * More risk to the upside for bond yields * EUR/USD
lower short term.
Equities
and Credit Downplay Subpar Backdrop
Mixed
data, no reason to change views * FOMC divided, but likely to raise rates in
December *
Brexit plot thickens * Trump’s chances are falling,
Brexit plot thickens * Trump’s chances are falling,
Speculative
Positioning
– Marc
Chandler
Speculators
Turn More Bearish Euros and Less Bullish the Yen
FX Outlook – Marc
Chandler
Rates
Still Key to Dollar's Outlook