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EUROPE
Ashoka Mody: Europe
after Merkel – Project
Syndicate
Even if Angela Merkel remains Germany's chancellor after next year's
federal election, she will be unable to exercise the same authority over Europe
as she has since 2010. That will profoundly change how the EU works, and the
disruption could have a profound effect on the European project's future.
Deutsche Bank Implements
Hiring Freeze, Stock Slides – ZH
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB preview: Wording is everything – Nordea
ECB preview: Wording is everything – Nordea
We expect no policy changes next Thursday….Our forecast for the December
meeting is an un-tapered extension of the asset purchases by six months.
However, we no longer expect a deposit rate cut.
Will the ECB fix the collateral
and repo squeeze and restore liquidity? – Nordea
MIGRATION CRISIS
Germany and Austria call for extension of border controls – Politico
Borders in Europe Would Cost Up To $3.3 Billion a Year, Study Shows – WSJ
Ending Schengen would cost up to €20 billion: report – Politico
UNITED KINGDOM
UK’s twin deficits: how closely related, should we be concerned? – Bank
Underground
The currency effects of Brexit – Frances
Coppola
Did the Bank of England cause Brexit? – Simon
Wren-Lewis
High Court Hears UK Constitutional Challenge – Marc
Chandler
OTHER
Hysteresis and fiscal
policy during the Global Crisis – voxeu
Antonio Fatás, Lawrence Summers: Conventional wisdom on supply and demand
suggests that demand shocks are cyclical or transitory, and that only
technology shocks are responsible for trend changes. This column argues that
cyclical events can have permanent effects on demand, and therefore GDP. It is
time for policymakers to start considering the possibility of hysteresis
seriously.
Goodbye monetary policy,
here comes fiscal policy? – ABN AMRO
Key takeaways from the 2016 Annual Meetings of IMF/World Bank and IIF and
related meetings in Washington DC.
China's Cooling Property
Market May Risk Economic Growth – BB
High-profile tightening reverses two years of easing cycle * A property
downturn increases potential for a hard-landing
China: Disappointing
exports imply weaker currency – Nordea
Today’s data may reinforce the PBoC’s intention to weaken the
trade-weighted renminbi, which can be achieved by weakening the spot CNY vs the
USD.
REGULARS
Danske Daily
– Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener
– Nordea
Strong USD, weak Chinese trade
numbers weighing on equities * FOMC minutes: Not hiking in September was “a
close call”. US rates ready for lift-off. GBP strengthened amid lawmakers’
involvement.
Morning Markets
– TF
A rough Asian session sparked by a
slump in Chinese exports and by what looks like Fed positioning for a December
rate move should make for a nervous opening for European markets.
Euro wrap-up
– Daiwa
Daily Market Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Dollar Edges Higher, though US Rates
Soften
Daily Market Comment
– Macro
Man
China: a change in FX reaction
function
Daily Press Summary
– Open
Europe
May rules out Article 50 vote but
agrees to “proper scrutiny” of Brexit process * Financial Times analysis
suggests UK exit bill of 20bn euros * Manuel Valls: ‘The European project is in
trouble’ * Austrian Foreign Minister: There will be no Turkish EU membership
Brussels Playbook
– Politico
Farage mirrors Trump — Lonely
Hollande — Sturgeon slams hard Brexit
US Open – ZH
Global Stocks Tumble To Three Month
Lows As China Fears Return
Frontrunning
– ZH
From the Floor
– TF
A tremendously poor September
exports print from China has again placed "global slowdown" fears at
sentiment's centre with vols in major FX pairs like USDJPY and GBPUSD soaring
as a result.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus
– Nordea
Fedin syyskuun
kokouksen pöytäkirjat eivät tuoneet suuria yllätyksiä * Kiinasta heikkoja
ulkomaankauppalukuja * Yritysten huoli Ruotsin heikoista talousnäkymistä
lisääntynyt * Dollari vahvistunut markkinoiden luottamuksen USA:n taloutta
kohtaan ollessa vahva
Lokakuun
talouskatsaus – Euro
ja Talous / Suomen Pankki
Suomen talouden kehitys jatkuu kaksijakoisena