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EUROPE
Renzi’s Gamble Gets Real
for Investors as Euro Periphery Splits – BB
Italy pays most to borrow compared with Spain for two years * Different
treatment by investors mirrors divergent risks
EU: Continuing in limbo,
trying to stay on track – Deutsche
Bank
The key issue on the EU policy agenda is mapping out a way forward for
the EU27 after the Brexit vote. The annual State of the Union speech delivered
by Commission President Juncker and the results of the informal Bratislava
summit in September provide some indication, define key priorities and several
specific suggestions for the next months. However, they mark but intermediate
steps in a process. Further results are to be presented in March 2017.
UNITED KINGDOM
'Global Britain' Is a Tactic, Not Just a Slogan – BB
Pound Drops to Lowest Since 1985 as Angst Builds Over Brexit – BB
Banks to Miss Out on Special Favors in May’s Brexit Plans – BB
Gideon Rachman: Theresa May walks into a Brexit trap – FT
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Bonds: Not if, but when
Draghi will change purchases – Nordea
Contemplating the case where Draghi actually stops the PSPP one could
easily see this as capitulating in the battle to increase inflation. This is
not likely to happen, and yet Draghi is pleading governments to boost growth,
but with no easy fixes. Economists therefore almost unanimously expect an
extension of the QE programme. If an extension is unavoidable the ECB has to
change their buying behaviour – latest by December! This will have an impact on
curves which are likely to go steeper.
QE floor removal will bull steepen bond curve – ABN AMRO
The pressure is mounting for the ECB to change the rules of its QE
programme * We expect the ECB to announce at the December GC meeting that it
will remove the floor from its purchases and extend the programme by six months
* Removal of the floor and lowering the maturity limit will create just enough
room for the ECB to fulfil its targets under the extended QE programme
ECB Said to Build Tapering Consensus as QE Decision Time Nears – BB
Scenarios include slowing QE by 10 billion euros a month * Decision on when to start tapering depends on economic outlook
ECB Said to Build Tapering Consensus as QE Decision Time Nears – BB
Scenarios include slowing QE by 10 billion euros a month * Decision on when to start tapering depends on economic outlook
DEUTSCHE
BANK
Deutsche Bank's Troubles Touch a Nationalist Nerve – View
/ BB
Germany’s deputy chancellor attacks Deutsche Bank chief – FT
Deutsche Bank: 5 scenarios for the German bank – FT
OTHER
The JPY has stabilized in summer with the fiscal stimulus as the yield
curve steepened. BoJ losing independence? USD/JPY close to "fair
value". Weakening should resume, but short term strength still possible on
US political risks...
The Yen in Three Charts – Marc Chandler
GBP: weakness buffers – Nordea
The GBP has failed to recover after the Brexit vote, and new fears
emerge. The economy, however, has surprised on the upside, and should data hold
firm further BoE action will be questioned...We expect a firmer GBP by
year-end.
Quarterly Outlook:
Before false gods – TF
Macro landscape remains characterised by policy easing, QE * Current
structural setup implies eventual correction, but timing is uncertain * 'You
can run from global macro for a while, but you can’t hide' * Precious metals,
positive-yielding government debt key assets * 'Expect new year-to-date highs
in a lot of the yield-heavy crosses'
Existential Threat to
World Order Confronts Elite at IMF Meeting – BB
Anti-globalization backlash poses economic, market risks * World economy
likened to driverless car stuck in the slow lane
A Russian Tragedy: How
Deutsche Bank’s “Wiz” Kid Fell to Earth – BB
Mastermind or scapegoat, Tim Wiswell was at the heart of the bank’s $10
billion mirror-trade scandal.
There’s a Little Bit of
Deutsche in Every Bank – WSJ
But if banks are so much better capitalized than before the financial
crisis, why do their shares suggest they are riskier?
IMF Sees Political Discord as Major Risk to Weak Global Recovery – BB
Backlash to World Economic Order Clouds Outlook at IMF Talks – BB
Winners and Losers in the IMF's New Growth Forecasts – BB
Winners and Losers in the IMF's New Growth Forecasts – BB
REGULARS
Danske Daily
– Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Higher yields, weaker GBP and Brent
close to USD 51/bbl * US manufacturing is back. Yields pushed higher in both
the US and the Euro area. GBP weakens on Brexit comments by PM May.
Morning Markets
– TF
Incoming RBA governor Lowe's first
meeting saw the central bank leave rates unchanged boosting the AUD. Elsewhere
sterling and oil moved lower while the USD gained ground.
Daily Market Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Sterling's Slide Continues, but
Greenback is Broadly Bid
Daily Market Comment –
Macro
Man
Another day, another downgrade
Daily Press Summary
– Open
Europe
Brussels Playbook
– Politico
US Open – ZH
Sterling Tumbles To 31 Year Low
Pushing The FTSE100 Near All Time High; US Futures Flat
Frontrunning
– ZH
FX Update
– TF
The
post-BoJ meeting JPY strengthening never worked up a head of steam after the initial
move and now we have signs that the yen is breaking down. Elsewhere RBA
provides no drama at Governor Lowe’s first meeting at the helm.
From the Floor
– TF
Theresa May's pledge for a move on
Brexit no later than March 31 not only raises the prospect of a 'hard' exit but
also offers little more than cold comfort to the banking sector and the City as
a whole with potentially far-reaching ramifications for the economy.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Yhdysvaltain
presidenttikisa kovenee * EKP:ltä odotetaan lisäelvytystä joulukuussa * Britannian
syyskuun teollisuuden ostopäällikköindeksi osoittanee teollisuussektorin kasvun
jatkuneen * Odotamme perjantaina julkaistavan USA:n työllisyyden muutoksen
tukevan joulukuun koronnostoa