11th Jul - Trade war and Nato meeting

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EUROPE

Four crucial questions for Eurozone leaders to answer – ING

Is some form of fiscal capacity necessary to preserve the Economic and Monetary Union? * How can we balance the Eurozone’s need for both financial discipline and risk-sharing? * Is a lack of trust, given current political gridlock, a core problem? * Has the goal of real economic convergence been dropped?

King Macron pledges humility after pool scandal – Politico

Macron’s popularity is taking a dive — in large part thanks to a swimming pool.

UNITED STATES

An Answer to the U.S. Wage Puzzle – IMF

Slower growth in labor productivity—the amount of goods or services produced in an hour of work—and a decline in the share of income that goes to workers. Both have held wages down, overcoming the positive impact of a declining unemployment rate.

OTHER

SEK Sliding Away – Macro Man

No One Is Innocent In The Global Game of Monopoly – BB

Europe shouldn’t be smug about market dominance. It’s not just a Silicon Valley thing.

BofA: This Is Our Biggest Concern For The Remainder Of The Year – ZH

Further tariffs would hurt Europe a lot, and Europe couldn’t afford it.

The Rout in Commodities Can No Longer Be Ignored – BB

A warning signal from raw materials leads market commentary.

Oil Plummets Amid Biggest Commodity Crash Since 2014 – ZH

Tariff Threat Sparks Commodity Carnage, Yield Curve Crash, Stock Slump – ZH

Stocks Sink as Trump Reloads the Tariff Bazooka: Markets Wrap – BB

U.S. list targets $200 billion more China goods for tariffs * Yen slips as yuan weakens; emerging markets, metals battered

  NATO MEETING

Nine Charts That Explain Trump's Battle Over Defense Spending – BB

Two percent target seen as poor measure of a ‘good’ ally * New study offers benchmarks from troop supply to sanctions

Nato reveals shortfalls in European defence budgets – FT

Diplomats fear confrontation with Trump at Brussels meeting over military spending

Trump and Merkel Exchange Barbs in Showdown Over Russia Pipeline – BB

President links complaints about defense spending and trade * Summit could follow path of G-7, which Trump left in a huff

At NATO, abrasive Trump lashes Germany for being Russian 'captive' – Reuters

Merkel recalls own East German youth in riposte to Trump – Reuters

Trump Takes Another Crack at Merkel in Tweet: NATO Update – BB

U.S. president accuses Germany of being ‘captive of Russia’ * Back in the U.S., his comments drew criticism from lawmakers

  TRADE WAR
US to impose tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports – FT

Escalation of trade war between the two economic powers unsettles financial markets

  

China to its state media: keep calm, don't inflame trade row with U.S. – Reuters

China is clearly angry about Washington's hard line on trade, but has controlled coverage of the row in its media, limiting open commentary and banning attacks on U.S. President Donald Trump, several sources with knowledge of the matter said.

China says will hit back after U.S. proposes fresh tariffs on $200 billion in goods – Reuters

Reagan’s “Boy Wonder” Nails It On Trade – Global Macro Monitor

Why Trade War Is Now Set To Get Much Worse – ZH

Standard Chartered's Steven Englander: more tariffs are coming.

EU to Join Trump in Criticizing China's Role in Global Trade – BB

World Trade Organization to review China’s trade policy * The EU, U.S., Japan to criticize Beijing at the gathering

Trump’s Tariff Barrage Pushes China Fight to Point of No Return – BB

He and Xi both have political reasons to keep up the pressure * Latest tariff list would tax over half of U.S.’s China imports

"Shocked" China Set To Hit Back At Trump "In Other Ways" – ZH

China: Changing the nature of retaliation on trade – ING

It may not be until September until we can assess the extent of China's qualitative retaliation to the overnight announcement by the US of an additional 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of goods

Risk of trade war grows – Pictet

The new US tariffs threatening Chinese imports and probable retaliation could bite into US and Chinese growth. As US midterm elections approach, the situation could worsen before it gets better.

China-US trade war has escalated – Nordea

The China-US trade war has escalated with the US planning to levy tariffs on USD 200bn of Chinese goods and China vowing retaliation. The sizable impact on Chinese growth and US consumer prices will lead to secondary effects on financial markets.

REGULARS

EU Open Rundown – RANsquawk

FirstFT Daily Briefing – FT

Trump’s Europe tour, Facebook’s £500k fine, Pfizer’s U-turn

WSJ City – WSJ

New US Tariff Plans Send Tremor Through Markets, Hunt for Sky Heats Up With Revised Fox Bid

WSJ Economics – WSJ

Trade Wars, Job Churn and the Productivity of Working Moms

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler

Escalating Trade Tensions Set Tone for Capital Markets

Brussels Playbook – Politico

NATO kick-off — Austria’s migration plan — A fine for Facebook

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB

US Open – ZH

"Past Point Of No Return": World Markets Tumble Amid Global Trade War Shockwaves

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

Tänään alkaa kaksipäiväinen NATO-huippukokous Brysselissä | Trumpin hallinto uhkasi Kiinaa uusilla 200 miljardin tuontitulleilla | Saksan rahoitusmarkkinoiden luottamus jatkoi luisuaan