EUROPE
Hans-Werner Sinn: Twilight
of the Euro?
– Project
Syndicate
Twenty
years after the formal creation of the euro, few can honestly say that the
single currency has been a success. After fueling a massive credit bubble in
Southern Europe in its first decade, it gave rise to an array of complex
monetary-policy and transfer schemes in its second – and more trouble is
looming as it enters its third.
[2014] Small-state nostalgia? The currency union, Germany and Europe: A reply to Jürgen Habermas – Wolfgang Streeck
[2014] Small-state nostalgia? The currency union, Germany and Europe: A reply to Jürgen Habermas – Wolfgang Streeck
Eurozone economic sentiment slips in July – ING
The
Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator declined slightly in July, confirming
that the current slower pace of growth is the new Eurozone cruising speed
GBP & BoE
Preview: The fading ‘Carney put’ – ING
A
pound under the political cosh is unlikely to find much love from a dovish
25bps BoE rate hike at the August 'Super Thursday' meeting. The tail risk of no
rate hike this week would be the equivalent of pulling a rug from under GBP’s
feet - with risks of GBP/USD falling to 1.28. We provide a matrix of potential
GBP estimates under various BoE and Brexit outcomes
Mark Carney Is
Preparing for Brexit and the Next Crisis – BB
What
it's like to be the U.K.'s central bank chief as Britain negotiates its
traumatic exit from the EU.
UNITED STATES
Federal Reserve
preview: A bold statement of intent – ING
A
rapid economic expansion, above-target inflation and a slice of better news on
trade could mean a more forceful statement of intent from the Federal Reserve
on Wednesday
Fed Watch:
Reloading
– Nordea
This
week’s FOMC meeting will leave rates unchanged before another hike in
September. Changes to the communication are set to be modest, with a slight
risk of a hawkish twist. More bear-flattening of the USD curve is the most
likely outcome.
Simon Johnson: Europe’s
Trade Victory in Washington – Project
Syndicate
US
President Donald Trump holds himself out as a brilliant negotiator, and his
supporters regard his trade policy as a perfect example of his success. But in
his recent trade talks with the Europeans, Trump was clearly out of his depth.
Unraveling Trump’s
secret: What would count as a ‘win’ for him? – ING
By
reconciling with the EU, President Trump has taken everybody by surprise. The
real surprise isn't so much his sudden friendliness, but the small price the EU
has had to pay for it
Trump-Conte
Meeting: More Political Theater – Marc
Chandler
OTHER
Nasdaq Tumbles:
FANGs, Dollar, Bonds Slump – ZH
Lessons from Jim
O’Shaughnessy
– 25iq
REGULARS
EU Open Rundown – RANsquawk
FirstFT Daily
Briefing
– FT
WSJ City – WSJ
Oil
Faces Supply Crunch, Stock Market Fights Off Big Tech’s Stumbles
WSJ Economics – WSJ
The
Labor Market Is Tight, the Economy Is Strong, and Companies Are Raising Prices
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Daily Market
Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Equities,
Bonds, and the Dollar Start Week Softer
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Why
Trump-Juncker talks almost failed — Big little Austria — Orbán’s war
Five Things You
Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB
US Open – ZH
Futures
Flat As Global Stocks Slump To Start Torrid Week
Euroalueen heinäkuun alustavat inflaatioluvut julkaistaan
tiistaina | Keskuspankeista kokousvuorossa tällä viikolla esimerkiksi Fed sekä
Englannin ja Japanin keskuspankit | USA:n vahvat BKT-luvut eivät heiluttaneet
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