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Thursday, July 19

18th Jul - Quiet


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UNITED STATES
Bernanke warns against wrong yield curve signalFT
Distortions mean an inversion does not necessarily point to recession, says former Fed chief

Stable genius: Estimating the 'Trump effect' on the US economyvoxeu
Growth and employment in the US have been robust over the past 18 months, and President Trump frequently takes personal credit for these trends. This column explores how the US economy would have evolved without Trump. An analysis shows no difference between the post-election performance of the US economy under Trump and a synthetic ‘doppelganger’ US economy without Trump, suggesting that there has been no ‘Trump effect’. 

Trump Decided Russia Indictments Should Come Pre-Summit, Sources SayBB
Trump gave the go-ahead to announce new Russian election-hacking indictments before his meeting with Vladimir Putin rather than after -- in the hopes it would strengthen his hand in the talks, according to accounts from people familiar with the decision.


OTHER
Google to Be Fined Record $5 Billion by EU Over AndroidBB
EU due to announce antitrust penalty later Wednesday * Latest fine to exceed last year’s $2.8 billion Google fine

Google faces record fine from Brussels over AndroidFT
Multibillion-euro penalty lined up for abuse of dominant position in mobile operating systems

Trump’s Trade War May Spark a Chinese Debt CrisisBB
A tighter dollar will make the bursting of the credit bubble an inevitability.


REGULARS
EU Open Rundown RANsquawk

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT
Brexit chaos, Trump volte-face, Finland’s women-only island

WSJ CityWSJ
Trump Reverses Course on Russia, May’s Brexit Plan Narrowly Survives

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Greenback Extends Gains--For Now

Brussels Playbook Politico
Mr. Juncker heads to Washington — Hey, Donald! — Theresa May holds on (for now)

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB

US OpenZH
Futures Flat As Dollar Surge Continues; Chinese Yuan Tumbles

AamukatsausNordea
Tänään julkaistaan Iso-Britannian kesäkuun inflaatioluvut, nostaako Englannin keskuspankki (BoE) korkoa elokuussa? | Fedin Powellin puhe loi uskoa asteittaisiin koronnostoihin | Trump pyörsi puheitaan Venäjän vaalihäirinnän suhteen

Blogi: Putinin voitto voi vielä kääntyä tappioksi Nordea
Helsingin huippukokous näyttää olleen paha virhe Trumpille, sillä presidentin arvostelu USA:ssa on nyt kovaa. Mutta onko Putinin voitto pysyvä vai jyrääkö kongressi jälleen Trumpin? Uusia sanktioita voi olla vielä tulossa.