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EUROPE
The roles of economic integration and monetary
policy in currency unions
– voxeu
A key critique of
commonly used macroeconomic models is their reliance on the assumption of
rational expectations. This column addresses this concern with a model of
currency unions wherein expectations are formed through behavioural
reinforcement learning, that is, learning from past mistakes. The model
suggests that economic integration is of crucial importance to the functioning
of a currency union. Monetary policy, in contrast, can only play a limited
stabilising role.
June saw a halt to
recent declines in euro area business sentiment survey – Pictet
Early signs of trough in
Europe – ABN
AMRO
UNITED STATES
July Macro Update – The
Fat Pitch
The
macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On
balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.
The largest risk to the economy is the escalation in trade war rhetoric.
JUNE JOBS REPORT
Strong
Job Creation, but Disappointing Earnings Growth – Marc
Chandler
Payrolls Rise 213,000; Wage Gains Slow,
Unemployment Up – BB
June
Jobs Report – The Numbers – WSJ
The
June Jobs Report in 8 Charts – WSJ
Payrolls
+213K But Hourly Earnings Disappoint Again – ZH
'Goldilocks'
Jobs Print Sparks Dollar Dump, Bond & Stock Buying – ZH
Where
The Jobs Were In June: Who's Hiring And Who Isn't – ZH
Participation
Rate Emerges as Fed's Big Job-Market Mystery – BB
REGULARS
EU Open Rundown – RANsquawk
FirstFT Daily
Briefing
– FT
Tariffs
enforced, Chequered Brexit, Europe’s beer crisis
WSJ City – WSJ
US-China
Trade War Begins, Saudi Aramco IPO In Doubt
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Daily Market
Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Dollar
Slips After Tariffs and Before Jobs Data
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Austrian
diplomacy — Brexit crunch time (again) — NATO’s present to Trump
Five Things You
Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB
US Open – ZH
Volatile
Markets On Edge As Trade War Begins Amid Confusion
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
USA:n tuontitullit kiinalaisille tuotteille astuivat
voimaan, Kiina vastaa samalla mitalla | Tänään luvassa USA:n kesäkuun
työmarkkinaraportti | Fedin kesäkuun kokouksen pöytäkirja ei tarjonnut
yllätyksiä