EUROPE
Leonid Bershidsky:
Don’t Take Germany's Rebuke to Macron Too Seriously – BB
The
French president and Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer aren't seriously at odds about
the future of Europe. They're just speaking to different audiences.
First
it was subprime mortgages, then European debt. Now, it’s money laundering.
No,
the euro’s not on the brink again, at this point. But it has severe structural
flaws which will have to be addressed if it is to survive the next major
crisis.
Sentiment
indicators, which had been falling since the start of 2018 are finally
stabilising, but with growth expectations scaled back and inflation still not
going anywhere, the ECB has had to finally adjust to the Eurozone's new reality
of elevated uncertainty. So overall, expect a low-interest rate environment to
remain in place for some time to come
Another
batch of disappointing industrial data adds to global doom but perhaps volatile
data is just a sign of bottoming out
For
German industry, there’s no shelter from the brewing economic storm
Persistently
low interest rates add to pressure on Christian Sewing to seek other options
OTHER
A
trade deal between the US and China is looking closer than ever, but the next
few weeks will be far from easy for the negotiators on either side. But even if
we get something soon, this won't really be the end – as President Trump
recently confirmed our interpretation of his strategy – he can only secure new
trade deals by imposing and threatening tariffs
Although
the equity market seems to have totally forgotten the worries of last year, we
have not. The macro backdrop, profit expectations, and equity market valuations
are all too challenging to us. We advocate for an underweight in risky assets.,
Credit
data shows that China's monetary policy is not that loose after all. And, the
central bank governor warned that the scale of required reserve ratio cuts will
be trimmed. When he mentioned the central bank aims to lower real interest
rates, he did not refer to cutting the policy rate. The "prudent"
monetary policy stance has returned
Bloomberg
Economics model says growth has eased sharply * Slowdown may stabilize, but
downside risks remain, BE says
REGULARS
China's
Push-Back, World War II Debt Levels, Japan Inc.
Dutch
cut lonely figures in fight against Italian budget. There is little appetite to
reignite a fight with Rome two months ahead of elections
The
(actual) Brexit endgame — If I’m Commission president — Germany answers France
Powell
Eyes Retail, Turkey's Payback, Sweden's Prudence
Daily Market
Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Greenback
Starts New Week Decidedly Mixed, with Brexit Anxiety Weighing on Sterling
Five Things to
Start Your Day US
– BB
US Open Rundown – RANsquawk
Eco Day US – BB
Powell
Eyes Retail, Trump’s Budget, Global Weak Spell * Fed chair says policy
appropriate, is in no hurry to change * Trump plan delays balanced budget
despite deep spending cuts
FINNISH
Tällä viikolla Britannian parlamentti äänestää tulevista
askelista brexitin suhteen | Lisäksi viikolla julkaistaan Saksan teollisuustuotannon
lukuja sekä USA:n ja Ruotsin inflaatiolukuja | USA:n työmarkkinaraportti oli
sävyltään ristiriitainen