Fed’s
the Dove-iest Surprise of All as World’s Central Banks Hit Pause
You'd
think we'd be fed up of Brexit by now, but as another week goes by, there is
yet another vote, and we are all over it. UK Prime Minister Theresa May will
have another go at pushing her Brexit deal through parliament, but it's
unlikely she'll be third time lucky. The German Ifo will also be in focus, the
question is, will it point to signs of recovery?
The
growth projections of the FOMC members have been revised downwards and the
unemployment projection has seen an upward revision * Markets are less upbeat.
They interpret patience as an underlying concern about downside risks and price
a rate cut in the course of next year
Has
Federal Reserve’s reaction function changed? * The case for a revisit of the
equity market lows from last December * Looser financial conditions to
temporarily lift IFO?
Dovish
central banks, Brexit, US-China trade talks
Europe
takes control over Brexit time-table, but rejects responsibility to decide on
its fate * In Europe, the fragile recovery is not helped by the protectionist
tone * China’ s potential current account deficit could hurt US debt refinance
Key events in EMEA and Latam next week – ING
Policymakers
in EMEA find themselves with a tough trade-off. While the global economy looks
more uncertain, domestic pressures argue for higher interest rates. The
National Bank of Hungary is likely to take its first hawkish step since 2011.
And while the Czech National Bank is a little more cautious - we'll probably
see the first rate hike arriving in May
High-level
trade talks resume, disagreement on enforcement the big hurdle * Metal markets
still underpin a recovery, otherwise little macro news this week * Xi Jinping
visits Europe amid concern over Italy signing memorandum on the Belt and Road
Initiative.
A
triangular battle for power in Thailand * Trade to dominate agenda at the
so-called Asian Davos * Export drag on Asian manufacturing to persist
FX
Weekly – Nordea
Week ahead – FT
Brexit
latest, Ukraine presidential election, Arab League summit