Take
Five: World markets themes for the week ahead – Reuters
EcoWeek
–
BNP
PARIBAS
Eurozone:
when manufacturing sneezes, do services catch a cold? * According to Mario
Draghi, a key question is how long the rest of the economy can remain insulated
from the weakness in the manufacturing sector
Easing
is coming. That’s almost certain now. But is substantial central bank easing
enough to keep the risk on narrative alive? Our earning indicators suggest not.
Both the ECB, the Fed and Norges Bank will deliver important messages next
week.
Weekly
Focus
– Danske
Bank
We
expect the Fed to make a dovish policy shift at the upcoming meeting * June PMI
figures on both sides of the Atlantic will give more clues on whether the
cyclical downturn continues * In Europe, a range of important decisions loom at
the EU summit and markets will keep a close watch on monetary policy hints from
the ECB's Sintra Forum.
Macro
Weekly
– ABN
AMRO
A
disintegrating world economy is bad news * Weakness in Asian trade * Weakness
in industrial activity * Some brighter spots * Falling US inflation
China
Weekly
– Danske
Bank
Xi
Jinping-Donald Trump meeting to be crucial for the next stage of the trade war
* Weak US data likely to put pressure on Trump soon * China opens up for more
infrastructure stimulus, data for May was mixed * The People's Bank of China
(PBoC) indicates that 7.0 for USD/CNY is not a 'red line'.
FOMC,
EMU PMI, and Pre-G20 Positioning: Crossroads and Crosswinds
Government
Bonds Weekly
– Danske
Bank
Our
preferred trades if the ECB eases monetary policy by either rate cuts or
QE/yield curve control
FX
weekly: Get ready for climate QE – Nordea
Inflation
expectations are falling of a cliff, but Cœuré don't sound ready to re-start
ECB QE. Villeroy could though be gearing up for climate QE, while Powell has
introduced the "effective lower bound". A signal of prepping for a
NIRP-scenario?
Tory
leadership race, Fed and BoE set rates, ECB forum