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EUROPE
The
EU should help the next UK prime minister by ruling out another extension
Yanis
Varoufakis: Fiscal Money Can Make or Break the Euro – Project
Syndicate
The
parallel payment system that Greece's government proposed in 2015 would have
bolstered the eurozone. By contrast, the Italian government's planned
"mini-Treasury bills" would lead to the single currency's demise.
It
is absolutely and critically important that the next president of the ECB is of
the same intellectual calibre as his or hers predecessor.
Current
interest rate levels are not a temporary phenomenon. We do not expect a rate
hike for several years, and even beyond that, increases are likely to be very
modest.
Just
when it seemed that the eurozone economy was starting to improve, the
escalation of the trade war between the US and China soured the mood once more.
We believe that a 10bp rate cut from the European Central Bank is now on the
cards in the second half of 2019
Recession
risk remains low despite a tougher external environment, which will remain a
defining feature for the growth outlook in the coming years. Expansionary
fiscal policies and rising wages should support domestic demand.
Euro
area budget rules on spending must avoid the pro-cyclicality trap – voxeu
A
real danger of faulty potential output estimates leading to procyclical policy.
Drivers
of underlying inflation in the euro area over time: a Phillips curve
perspective
– ECB
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL RESERVE
The
Fed talks the talk, but in no rush to cut – Pictet
The
Fed should remain on hold on 19 June, but Chairman Powell is likely to mention
the possibility of cutting rates in the coming months, especially if trade
tensions continue.
FOMC
Preview: Paving the way for Fed cuts – ABN
AMRO
Running
out patience * From neutral to an easing bias * Declining inflation
expectations * Dots to shift, but not aggressively
Trade
worries are not abating and the economy is starting to feel the strain. The Federal
Reserve is preparing for a change of course and we now look for 50bp of rate
cuts in 2H19
El-Erian:
What the Fed Will Do This Week, and Why – BB
Having
signaled that it will announce a rate cut, the central bank’s big questions are
how much, when and why.
Brian
Chappatta: Did the Markets Break Jerome Powell? We’re About to Find Out – BB
Bond
traders have set themselves up for disappointment with aggressive bets on
interest-rate cuts. Will the central bank dare to push back?
Fed
to signal cuts are coming – ING
With
trade tensions likely to escalate, this Wednesday’s Fed meeting looks set to
confirm market expectations - precautionary interest rate cuts are coming
OTHER
Weekly
Preview: Here Come The Central Banks – ZH
One
troubling aspect of declining yields is falling inflation expectations
The
policies created to pull the world out of recession are still in place, but now
they are strangling the global economy.
CHINA
We
think the authorities will increase fiscal stimulus, as well as cut interest
rates and the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) to support growth, in what is
becoming a difficult environment for Chinese companies in the trade and
technology sectors
Trade
war: will US espionage fears scupper Chinese rail group? – FT
State-owned
CRRC faces claims that its rail cars could be used for spying
Trump
to raise territory’s demonstrations with Xi at G20
There
is no reason why an ethnic Chinese society cannot also be a democracy
IRAN
Iran
threatens to breach nuclear deal enrichment limits – FT
Tehran
says threshold agreed on its uranium stockpile will be exceeded within 10 days
Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran stokes war fears – FT
Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran stokes war fears – FT
Administration
increasingly divided over whether campaign will reduce tensions
REGULARS
Five
Things to Start Your Day Asia – BB
Protest
Momentum * Keeping Expectations Low * Energy Tensions * Forcing BOJ’s Hand? * Awaiting
the Fed
Eco
Day Asia
– BB
Fischer
Sees Powell's End, Fed to Push BOJ, U.S. Record * Ross downplays chances of
major trade deal at Trump-Xi meeting * PBOC’s ‘tremendous room’ to act in focus
as growth decelerates
Five
Things to Start Your Day Europe – BB
2
million * ECB Debates * ‘Epic’ Crash * Iranian Tensions
EU
Open Rundown
– RANsquawk
FirstFT
Daily Briefing
– FT
Brussels
Briefing
– FT
Scenarios
for the EU jobs summit: The European Parliament groups don’t seem ready to
rally behind one candidate for the presidency
Brussels
Edition
– BB
Brussels
Playbook
– Politico
Romania’s
Macron — Summit week — Salvini in Trumpland
Danske
Daily
– Danske
Bank
Big
central bank week takes off * Before that the ECB will take centre stage at the
ECB Forum in Sintra
Eco
Day Europe
– BB
Draghi's
Last Retreat, Peaked Rates, India Tariffs * ECB chief’s last summer
get-together unlikely to be buoyant * Major central banks meet as global rates
make about-turn
Daily
Market Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Quiet
Start to Big Week
Five
Things to Start Your Day US – BB
Trade
vs. central bankers * 2 million * Plane-a-palooza * Markets
US
Open Rundown
– RANsquawk
US
Open
– ZH
Slow
Start As Traders Brace For Huge Week For Global Markets
Eco
Day US
– BB
Powell
Bets, Recession Watch, Central Banks Take Stage * Powell’s concern over zero
rates seen lowering bar for Fed cut * BOJ, Fed, BOE all meet in important week
for central banks
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Fedin poikkeuksellisen mielenkiintoinen kokous on
vuorossa keskiviikkoiltana, markkinat odottavat keventävää linjaa | Myös useat
muut keskuspankit kokoustavat tällä viikolla | USA:sta saatiin hyvät lukemat
vähittäismyynnistä ja tehdasteollisuudesta