EUROPE
The
move from the EU Commission, which did not come as a big surprise, will now
force a clarification between the Italian government stakeholders on the future
attitude towards Europe. Should a compromise not be reached, chances of a
September political election would likely shoot up
Italy’s
Government Pulls Together to Face Down EU Budget Threats – BB
Premier
and his deputies push back against EU move on debt * Conte echoes pledges by
Salvini, Di Maio to change EU limits
Leonid
Bershidsky: Look, the Center-Left Can Still Win Elections – BB
The
Social Democrats’ victory in Denmark is no accident.
Increasing
industrial orders show that not all is bad, even though the outlook for
industry in the Eurozone's largest economy remains shaky.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB
Watched as Central Banks Shift Gears: Decision Day Guide – BB
Updated
forecasts and falling inflation expectations in focus * World’s major central
banks are turning toward looser policy
EU’s
Political Twister Seen Delaying Choice of New ECB President – BB
Governments
are said to be focusing on EU Commission first * Late decision on ECB could
unnerve investors amid weak economy
Monetary
policy decisions
– ECB
Introductory
statement to the press conference – ECB
Eurosystem
staff macroeconomic projections – ECB
Details of new targeted longer-term
refinancing operations (TLTRO III) – ECB
ECB Decision – ZH
ECB
Extends Forward Guidance, Will Keep Rates Unchanged Until First Half Of 2020,
Announces TLTRO Terms
ECB
Will Keep Record-Low Rates for Longer Amid Inflation Slump – BB
Pledge
on low rates extended, details on bank loans unveiled * Draghi to present
updated economic forecasts at media briefing
ECB
vows to hold rates at historic lows until mid-2020 – FT
Central
bank extends earlier promise to maintain rates to late 2019 as inflation fears
grow
ECB:
As dovish as it can be without cutting rates – ING
The
European central bank extends forward guidance on rates and announces details
of the third series of TLTROs
ECB
Reaction
– ZH
Draghi
Disappoints As ECB Announcement Seen Less Than "Big Bang"; Euro
Jumps, Stoxx Slides
ECB
Cuts Long-Term GDP Growth, Inflation Forecasts – ZH
ECB Watch: Ready to act with more QE and rate cuts – ZH
While
the ECB took another small step towards exiting ultra-easy monetary policy
today, Draghi was clear that further rate cuts and net asset purchases remain
in the tool box. Markets interpreted the message hawkishly.
Ferdinando Giugliano: Mario Draghi Demands a Lot of Trust – BB
Investors
will want to believe the more dovish message from the ECB chief’s press
conference. But his departure makes it very hard to be certain.
Not
sure how Draghi could have been more dovish – ABN
AMRO
Further
monetary easing remains on the cards * Rate cuts and QE put explicitly on the
table * Forward guidance extended and TLTRO rate set as low as -0.3% * ECB
revises projections for growth and inflation modestly lower * QE to be
announced before year end *
ECB
Review
– Daiwa
ECB
not quite as dovish as expected * Forward guidance extended with an apparent
easing bias * But
TLTRO-III not as generous as TLTRO-II * ECB forecasts little changed * Inflation
expectations and the euro among new ECB concerns
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL RESERVE
The
Fed may soon cut rates and that prospect is making investors nervous. Is the
start of easing necessarily bad for equities? In short, probably not, at least
not immediately. There's more to it than that.
The
central bank is being pressured to solve problems far beyond monetary policy.
OTHER
Global
Outlook: Macro downgrades and global easing – ABN
AMRO
We
have downgraded our global economic growth forecasts and expect a global
monetary easing cycle to take shape by the end of this year. This implies a
longer period of sub-trend economic growth rather than recession for the global
economy
TRADE WAR
US-Mexico
End Tariff Meeting Without Breakthough – ZH
US
Prepares To Sell $2 Billion In Weapons To Taiwan – ZH
Trump
threatens China with tariffs on a further $300 billion of goods – Reuters
China
says will fight to end if U.S. escalates trade tensions – Reuters
China
rare earth prices soar on their potential role in trade war – Reuters
REGULARS
Fed
Beige Book, Hong Kong Housing Hit, Third RBI Cut * What’s the economic cost if
U.S.-Mexico trade talks fail? * Lagarde says trade risks become reality as
growth slows
Brussels
Briefing
– FT
No
money, more problems: Brussels shows restraint with Italy, partly to avoid
being used as a political punching bag
Will
Draghi Act?
Social
Democrats win Denmark — Good week for Council — Bad week for Parliament
ECB
meeting unlikely to be a game changer
Eco
Day Europe
– BB
ECB
Decides, Vote on Next ECB Head, Fed Beige Book
Daily
Market Comment
– Marc
Chandler
US
Tariff Threats on Mexico Compete with ECB for Attention
Five
Things to Start Your Day US – BB
US
Open Rundown
– RANsquawk
US
Open
– ZH
Rally
Fizzles As Trade Tensions Mount But Central Banks Say "Buy, Buy, Buy"
Eco
Day US
– BB
U.S.-Mexico
Trade Talks, Trump’s Big Stick, ECB Meeting * U.S. jobs report eyed for cracks
as trade war weighs on growth * U.S. celebrates 10 years of growth, but no
one’s partying
FINNISH
EKP kokoustaa tänään, Draghi tuskin pystyy yllättämään
markkinoita kyyhkymäisyydellään | USA:sta saatiin eilen ristiriitaista
talousdataa | EU antoi eilen Italialle varoituksen julkisen velan korkeasta
tasosta