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| nice bull channel |
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| may test the 1445 |
Roundups
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| France sucks |
The 6am Cut
London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging Markets
Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Reference
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
MORNING BRIEFINGS
We love the CAD, who doesn’t? That’s the
problem.
3 Numbers to Watch: BoE & ECB rate decisions; FOMC minutes – Saxo Bank
3 Numbers to Watch: BoE & ECB rate decisions; FOMC minutes – Saxo Bank
Plenty of central bank action today with the
Bank of England’s vote on interest rates and asset purchases. This will be followed by
the ECB rate decision and press conference. Finally, the Federal Reserve is due
to release the latest FOMC minutes.
Asia Today: More pressure on the AUD as retail sales disappoint – Saxo Bank
Asia Today: More pressure on the AUD as retail sales disappoint – Saxo Bank
The focus was still on Australia in Asia with retail sales in the spotlight. The good news was they rebounded
back into positive territory in August having slumped 0.8% the previous month. Bad
news was that it did not quite match market expectations
Market Preview: BoE, ECB rate decisions eyed – Saxo Bank
Market Preview: BoE, ECB rate decisions eyed – Saxo Bank
European markets are expected to open higher
Thursday amid expectations of further monetary easing from both the European
Central Bank and the Bank of England at their monetary policy meetings later today.
Danske Daily – Danske Bank (pdf)
Danske Daily – Danske Bank (pdf)
No new policy action expected from the ECB –
Draghi is still waiting for Spain * Bank of England to remain on hold - no new
action expected until November * FOMC minutes * Bond auctions in Spain and
France.
Aamukatsaus – Nordea (pdf)
Aamukatsaus – Nordea (pdf)
Palvelusektorin
luottamus piristyi USA:ssa – työllisyysluvut kohtalaisia * Euroalueen
vähittäismyynti yllätti positiivisesti – EKP:lta ei luvassa uutta tietoa * Brent-öljyn
hinta laski kolmella prosentilla kahden kuukauden pohjiin
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola
(pdf)
Eurooppalaisten
ETF-rahastojen pääomavirtojen perusteella syyskuussa nähtiin voimakas
allokaation muutos defensiivisistä sektoreista syklisiin. Suomessa
vastaavantyyppistä liikettä ei nähty. Markkinan suunta: Osakkeille tukea
jälleen USA:n odotuksia paremmasta makrodatasta, etenkin palvelualojen tilanne
USA:ssa selvästi odotuksia vahvempi. Tänään markkinoilla keskitytään EKP:n
korkokokoukseen. Osakefutuurit plussalla, indikoiden nousuavausta aamulla.
Morning Briefing (EU/US): Wind of change – BNY
Mellon
Just how brightly the red lights are flashing
is open to debate, but recent forecasts for Germany are all telling a similar tale
Markkinakalenteri – Nordnet
Markkinakalenteri – Taloussanomat
Reference
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
EUROPE
Van Rompuy paper points to EU summit pitfalls – Reuters
Banking supervision, the single market, a
centralized euro zone budget, a single bank resolution fund, direct
recapitalization of banks from rescue funds and much stricter fiscal oversight.
A European federal economic government is
needed to run the fiscal union in the interests of states and taxpayers. – Europp /
LSE
The United Kingdom has decided it will not be part of the federal union. So a new form of
associate membership of the EU will have to be devised to suit the British, but
also to prevent a British veto of the constitutional evolution needed and
desired by its partners. Associate membership may also cater for the needs of
other countries.
Common EZ budget? Good luck! – Economist
Meg
Euro zone policymakers are right that fiscal
transfers are necessary to keep all current member states in the common
currency union. But I doubt that politics can evolve fast enough to establish a
fiscal union before countries choose to abandon the euro.
The entire EU austerity plan is based on a
false premise. This disastrous error is now clear beyond any reasonable doubt.
Bundesbank’s
protests to ECB, Catalonia and Greece are just anger-venting and no
policy-changers.
EUROPE: BANKING
Fight Looms Over EU Plans for Bank Reform – Spiegel
Until recently, calls to forcibly split up
European banks were dismissed as a radical leftist idea. Now even an EU panel
of experts is recommending dividing up dangerous financial giants. But the
banking lobby, which would face major cost increases as a result, has the power
to water down the ideas.
EU bank watchdog sticks to capital target – Reuters
The European Union's banking watchdog is
sticking to a capital target for banks to help shield them from the euro zone
debt crisis, saying lenders that fall short won't be able to pay dividends or
big bonuses.
EUROPE: FRANCE
French Economy Implodes – Mish’s
Service sector business activity is dropping at
fastest rate since October 2011.
the French government wants to tax capital
gains at the same rate as earned income.
EUROPE: SPAIN
Senior officials from Germany and other parts of the eurozone's AAA core have warned Spain privately that angry
parliaments are likely to impose stringent conditions on any further rescue
loans.
Spain's corporate tax take has tumbled by almost two thirds from pre-crisis
levels as small businesses fail and a growing number of big corporations seek
profits abroad to compensate for the prolonged downturn at home.
Transfer issues will plague Spanish bank
bailout – Sober
Look
The Spanish bank bailout process still lacks
sufficient detail - after months since the announcement.
EUROPE: OTHER PIIGS
OSI likely, but not to give Greece a new lease on life
in the EZ – Economist
Meg
Possibly as early as the first half of next
year if the current Greek coalition collapses and is replaced by a Syriza-led,
hard bargaining coalition that goes to the brink with the troika and is too
inexperienced to pull back. There is also a chance the troika will continue to
keep Greece on life support until after the German elections (September 2013) and
until both Spain and Italy are in partial bailout programs (Spain: any day now, Italy: probably after their
election in Q2 2013).
Greek hopes fade for quick deal on austerity
cuts – Reuters
Greece's hopes of striking a deal with its
lenders before euro zone finance ministers meet next week dimmed on Wednesday,
when officials admitted the two sides disagree on how much the economy will
contract in 2013 - a key figure in their calculations.
Portugal has announced a raft of new cuts
designed to reduce the country's debt load, as finance minister Vitor Gaspar
unveiled sweeping changes that will see the average income tax rate rise by
2pc.
OTHER
IMF chief economist says crisis will last a
decade – Reuters
The world economy will take at least 10 years
to emerge from the financial crisis that began in 2008, the International
Monetary Fund's Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard said in an interview
published on Wednesday.
Increase in trade deficit points to
vulnerability of Australian dollar – Sober
Look
4 Years After TARP - Winners, Losers, Bubbles,
And Troubles – ZH
roundup of
asset performance