If you are just returning to the office: PLEASE, take a look at my weekend posts linked below. They are long and I push the week's best stuff into them. You might be surprised. EDIT: US bank holiday today - low-volume day, but not sure if that translates into low volatility as well.
Previously on MoreLiver’s
Roundups
News
roundup – Between
The Hedges
The 6am Cut
London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging
Markets Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Reference
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
MORNING BRIEFINGS
3 Numbers to Watch: DE Trade & Ind
Production; EZ Investor Confid – Saxo
Bank
With markets in the US closed for Columbus
Day it is all European data today. Germany's trade balance and industrial production levels are expected to
decline for August, while the October Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index
is also due.
There was not much follow through from Friday’s
positive post non-farms risk-on trading in a quiet Asian session with a Japan holiday impacting. Gold
traded heavily from the start as it failed to breach the 1,800 mark at the
first attempt.
Market Preview: EU finance ministers meet eyed – Saxo
Bank
European markets are expected to open lower
Monday amid concerns over global economic growth. Investors keenly await the
Eurozone finance ministers meeting, German industrial production and trade data
due later today.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
ECB’s Asmussen says that ECB rolling over Greek
debt would be illegal. FT tracking index shows momentum in global economy
dissipating. US Consumer credit rose more than expected. Market movers today: German
industrial production, ECOFIN and Eurogroup meetings, ESM inauguration
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
(pdf)
USA:n työllisyysluvut
varovaisen positiivinen yllätys * Euroalueen valtiovarainministereiden
tapaamisesta ei odoteta ihmeitä * USA:n työllisyysluvuista nostetta Saksan ja
USA:n koroille
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola
(pdf)
Markkinan suunta: Edellisviikko
päättyi melko positiivisissa tunnelmissa, kun USA:n perjantain
työmarkkinaraportti osoitti työttömyysprosentin laskeneen alle 8%. Tällä
viikolla polkaistaan tuloskausi käyntiin sekä USA:ssa että Suomessa. Lyhyen ja
pitkän aikavälin sijoittamisen yhdistäminen: Nyt hyvä hetki ostaa: Fortum,
Sanoma, Metso, F-Secure, UPM-Kymmene.
Nyt hyvä hetki myydä:
Pöyry, Rautaruukki, Neste Oil, Finnair, Sampo.
Morning Briefing (EU/US): Troubled Rainbow – BNY
Mellon
Is South Africa facing one of its greatest post-apartheid challenges? Markkinakalenteri – Nordnet
Markkinakalenteri – Taloussanomat
EUROPE
Eurozone rage: Turning point or business as
usual? – Jacob Funk Kirkegaard /
voxeu.org
Political pressures are rising again in Europe. This column argues that reactions
in parliaments, central banks and on the street are well within the bounds of
predictable reactions to hard times. These developments change nothing of
significance in the calculus concerning the eventual success of the Eurozone
crisis response.
Swiss foreign reserves rose to another record
(CHF 429.3bn) at the end of September as depositors once again moved funds out
of the Eurozone
USA
Goldman On The Not-So-Good, The Bad, And The
Ugly Fiscal Cliff Scenarios That Remain – ZH
GS: The tail risk is that Congress will fail to
agree on any type of resolution for a more extended period, and the economy is
hit with both the sequester and much bigger tax increases. While the impact of
such a failure—especially those related to confidence and financial
conditions—is harder to quantify, just the direct fiscal effect would imply a GDP growth hit of around 4 percentage
points in early 2013, and likely a recession.
Can The Fed Ever Exit? – ZH
UBS: although the Fed has suggested
that it will not begin an exit strategy until 2015, the magnitude of the excess
balance sheet argues for considering whether the Fed has the ability to unwind
their balance sheet.
The Fed's 'Improvisation' Phase – ZH
Morgan
Stanley: Fed officials are now in the
improvisation phase of their monetary policy experiment. Policy makers have
told us that they will do whatever it takes to get what they want. The problem
is that they have not told us specifically what it takes or what they want.
The Disingenuous James Bullard – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
If Bullard wants to take a hard line against
higher inflation, so be it. In reality,
that hard line has been adopted by the vast majority of Fed officials. They aren't inclined to touch the inflation
option for fear, I think, that it would work.
ASIA
In one way or another, China bulls make the
argument to support the bullish ideas based on some sort of comparisons of
China today with another country, most of the time a now highly developed
country.
I recently “debated” twice with senior Chinese
officials on the future prospects for China. In both cases they made the argument that
Chinese growth rates were going to rise in the next few years and that the
current deep pessimism is unwarranted. I argued, of course, that growth would
slow even more.
Whether China’s current slowdown is
a cyclical dip, or whether it’s the beginning of a long, gradual,
Japanese-style slump, is one of the most pressing questions for today’s
economists. And now a new question has arise: will the economies that have been
relying on China be able to decouple if its GDP growth continues to weaken?
OTHER
In
pursuit of dominance over the Middle East the US government destroyed Iraq, one of the two regional powers. Now
we run the same playbook against Iran. Being a docile and easily
led people, we don’t notice the similarity, or that our government trashes America’s greatest accomplishment on the
world stage — and perhaps its primary legacy.
One doesn't need to focus on the history of Iran to appreciate how
dangerous the situation has become. Currency debasement and inflation were
responsible for hostilities through the ages.
FX Comment: lies, damn lies and statistics – Nordea
Tokyo links — IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings – iMFdirect
The 2012 annual meetings of the IMF and the
World Bank are being held this year in Tokyo at a crucial time for
the world economy. Track everything through the live events schedule (all Tokyo times).