W/E: Weekly Support (updated)
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EUROPE
...not yet
but we are getting closer
GERMANY
The
European Court of Justice announced Sept. 22 that hearings in the case against
the ECB’s OMT-programme will begin Oct. 14. Though the process is likely to be
lengthy, with a judgment not due until mid-2015, the ruling will have serious
implications for Germany's relationship with the rest of the
eurozone.
UKRAINE / RUSSIA
The
Russian budget – The
Economist
Economic
pain, caused by Ukraine
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Germany Throws Up Over Draghi Plan To Buy
Greek Junk – ZH
The ECB’s
executive board will propose that existing requirements on the quality of assets
accepted by the bank are relaxed to allow the eurozone’s monetary guardian to
buy the safer slices of Greek and Cypriot asset backed securities, or ABS, say
people familiar with the matter.
No
mystery: ECB has already announced quantitative easing – TradingFloor
Details of
the ECB's plan to buy private sector assets will be announced Thursday * The
real intention is to lower the exchange rate * Indications point to a lack of
ABS and covered bonds available to achieve goal
What is
the ECB to Do? – Marc to
Market
The focus
is on the details of the asset-backed securities and covered bond plan that was
announced last month. There are three key issues related to this new initiative: What instruments will be purchased, how much will be bought, and how long will the
purchase program last?
No
mystery: ECB has already announced quantitative easing – TradingFloor
Despite the
ongoing speculation about whether the European Central Bank will announce a
quantitative easing program, it's clear from Mario Draghi's comments earlier
last month that it already has. However, Thursday's announcement will provide
specific details regarding its asset purchase plan.
New ECB
Steps Unlikely; ABS Buying Details Sought – WSJ
5
Details to Watch at the ECB’s October Meeting – WSJ
ECB's
Draghi repeats call for reforms, fiscal action – Reuters
Draghi
urged euro zone governments on Wednesday to do their part to boost economic
growth through structural reforms, saying monetary policy alone was not enough
to revive confidence and spur investment.
Draghi
Says ECB Hopes to Get at Root of Eurozone’s Economic Problems – WSJ
UNITED STATES
MACRO NUMBERS
ISM
Manufacturing index declines to 56.6 in September – Calculated
Risk
ISM
manufacturing declines - more downside risk in coming months – Danske
Bank
ISM Biggest
Miss Since January – ZH
ISM
Manufacturing Index: Disappointing September Growth – dshort
Disappointing
ISM Manufacturing Report – Bespoke
Construction
Spending decreased 0.8% in August – Calculated
Risk
ASIA
Everybody
was umbrella fighting... – Humble
Student
In my last
two posts, I highlighted the rising tail-risk from the protests in Hong Kong (see The Big Kahuna Korrection, or
buy Yom Kippur? and HK tail-risk is rising). While the markets focuses on the
actions of the ECB and the US Employment report this week, the risk of the
derailment of one of the three key engines of global growth, namely China, is
heightened.
Leaders in Hong Kong need to contain the campaign for
democracy without the tools employed on the mainland to suppress dissent,
including sweeping powers of arrest, indefinite detention, compliant courts and
a controlled media.
China - NBS manufacturing PMI unchanged
in September – Danske
Bank
5 Takeaways
From BOJ Tankan Survey – WSJ
OTHER
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Does Bernanke Deserve a Nobel Prize? * Fed Repo Facility Fails to Defend
Short-Term Rate Floor * Powell Says Fed Should Shun Direct Treasury Ties * Eurozone
Manufacturing Disappoints * BOJ Tankan: Japan Corporate Sentiment Improves
Daily Macro – WSJ
A mixed bag
of data from around the world, including purchasing manager surveys from Europe and Asia,
shows that economies are not collapsing but neither are they driving
strongly forward. At best the global economy outside of the U.S. appears to be treading water. In
this overall state of torpor, the default response among currency traders
appears to be to continue buying the dollar, with trade-weighted indexes for
the greenback marking their strongest quarterly gain Tuesday since 2008 and the
dollar crossing above Y110 Wednesday for the first time since the financial
crisis of that year.
Poor
News There Pushes Dollar Higher Here – Marc
to Market
http://www.marctomarket.com/2014/10/poor-news-there-pushes-dollar-higher.html
Commodities
Update – Danske
Bank
Brent
plunges - we maintain 2015 forecast at USD98/bbl
The Best
And Worst Performing Assets In September, Q3 And 2014 YTD – ZH
FINNISH
Ikuinen euro – Sampo Terho
Eläkeuudistus ja kestävyysvaje, onko ongelmat nyt
ratkaistu? – Heikki
Koskenkylä / Libera
Venäjä: uhka vai mahdollisuus? – Suomen Perusta
Suomen Perusta -ajatuspajan kirjassa tarkastellaan Venäjää
sekä merkittävänä kauppakumppanina että mahdollisena turvallisuuspoliittisena
uhkana.
Veikö kissa Suomen linjan? – Arto
Luukkanen / US
Lama-Suomen ministeri haukkuu Alexander Stubbin:
”Käsittämätöntä mielistelyä” – US
Katainen putosi komission varapuheenjohtajiston hännille
– YLE
Financial Times -lehdelle vuodetun asiakirjan mukaan Suomen
Jyrki Katainen on komission johdossa vasta seitsemäs ja varapuheenjohtajista
viimeinen.
Taas synkkä luku Euroopan taloudesta: sisämaan rahti
-11,7% - TE