Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter
EUROPE
Eurozone
stagnation is a greater threat than debt – FT
Wolfgang
Munchau: Monetary policy can boost markets in the shortrun, but this cannot be
sustained
The
eurozone’s German problem – Centre
for European Reform
Legal
challenges could pose new problems for EU sanctions on Russia – Open
Europe
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Eurozone
fails to benefit from weak currency as oil price slides – FT
Just as
this depreciation is starting to fuel inflation, the ECB must contend with a
fall in oil prices that all but wipes out the effect of a sliding currency.
The ECB
Changes Its Mind Which Bonds It Will Monetize, Then It Changes It Again – ZH
ECB Said to
Start Asset Purchase Plan Buying French Covered Debt – BB
ECB starts
buying covered bonds – FT
ECB
Unleashes (Covered) Bond Buying Program, Sovereigns Sell Off – ZH
ECB
Purchases Begin and Markets Shrug – WSJ
Germany
lays down the law to the ECB on monetary policy – TradingFloor
The ECB
will need to be very cautious in implementing its “new phase” of monetary
policy, especially the asset buying plan. Germany, the mainstay of Europe, is
not on board.
Credibility
meets compromise in Europe's bank stress test – Reuters
When Europe
announced its latest health check of top banks early last year it promised a
"comprehensive assessment" of how well prepared they were to
withstand another financial crisis.
European
Banks See ECB Exams as Step to Unlocking Lending – BB
The European
Central Bank’s unprecedented inspection of lenders’ books will help end a slump
in lending that’s dogged southern Europe for years, said executives at some of
the region’s largest banks.
ECB
review will clarify Greece's needs: bailout fund head Regling – Reuters
A review of
the European banking sector due to be released on Oct. 26 should bring clarity
on Greece's funding needs, the head of the monetary union's bailout fund said
on Monday.
UNITED STATES
Oil Is
Cheap. But Not So Cheap That Americans Won’t Profit From It – BB
FEDERAL RESERVE
Time for
the Fed to introduce a forward-looking McCallum rule – The
Market Monetarist
Use the
money base as an instrument to hit a 4% NGDP level target
A Q&A
With San Francisco Fed’s John Williams – WSJ
Quantitative
easing reduced inequality, a top Fed official says – WaPo
Fed to End
Bond Buys This Month as Planned, Says Rosengren – WSJ
Low For
Long: A Q&A With Boston Fed’s Rosengren – WSJ
OTHER
How to
link Australian iron with Marine le Pen – Michael
Pettis
Market
mayhem globally, Credit kleptocracy in China – George
Magnus
On the
USD and US rates – Macro
Credit FX
5
Takeaways From the WTO’s World Trade Report – WSJ
Good news: outlook for global trade this year is a bit
better than last year. Bad news: the economic malaise in Europe will drag on
the exchange of goods around the world, in turn hurting the potential for
global economic growth.
DAILIES
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Da Costa’s
Take: Inequality Conference Hints at Limits of Fed Policy * Fed Sticking to its
Plan Despite Volatility * Yellen Says Extreme Inequality Could Be Un-American * China’s Central Bank to Inject More Funds
Into Banks * Big Banks Start Charging Clients for Euro Deposits
Daily
Macro – WSJ
The
Japanese market led the way with a 4% surge following a series of down days.
But European markets, which had also snapped back on Friday, were back on a
downward trend, notwithstanding reports that the ECB had started its asset
purchase program – private QE — by buying French covered bonds…worryingly,
German sovereign yields edged down again as those of peripheral eurozone
economies moved higher, suggesting a possible return to stresses within the
single currency region.
FI
Eye-Opener: Bouncy
– Nordea
Core bond
yields rebound. Greek bonds lead a rally in the periphery. European equities
with a big rally. Yields with some more room to rise today. BoE Chief Economist
sends dovish signals. Euro-area PMIs, US inflation and Chinese GDP. Belgium
setting the supply week in motion – big boost from coupon and redemptions.
WEEKLIES (more here)
Post-Taper
Tantrum II: The Week Ahead – Marc
to Market
The
narrative is the rekindling of disinflationary forces if the Fed stops
providing ongoing monetary support, in the face of global headwinds that
undermine growth.
FX:
catch breath – Nordea
The USD
(DXY) reversed back to re-test the multiyear downtrend - will it? Lower
inflation data could do the trick, but only temporarily. "Tails we win,
heads they lose" - commodity FX, now vs EUR.
Weekly
Market Summary – The
Fat Pitch
The big
question is whether the correction is over and stocks will now rally into year
end.
What to
Watch in the EU Oct. 20-26 – WSJ
Stress
Tests, Gas Talks and Summits
Strategy:
On the radar – Nordea
Riksbank:
how will the new rate path look like? * Swedish macro: a small open economy.
Watch out below! * SEK spread-over: perspectives on spreads vis-à-vis the risk
sentiment * SEK rates: liability hedging less of a driver in SEK long-end * EUR
rates: Schatz spreads and the AQR/stress tests
The
Macro Week Ahead: Get Rich Or Die Trying, Risk-On – TradingFloor
Much to
focus on this week. In Asia the main macro data will be China’s September FAI,
retail sales, IP and most importantly third quarter GDP figures – the world
will be tuning in on Tuesday for that figure.
World
Week Ahead – WSJ
Battered
Investors Need Assurances in Data
Weekly
Central Banks Calendar – WSJ
FINNISH
Laman piti irrottaa otteensa Kreikasta, mutta euromaita
uhkaava kolmoistaantuma ja Venäjän-viennin sukellus saattavat katkaista pahasti
velkaantuneen valtion toipumisen.
Britannia haluaa rajoittaa EU:n vapaata liikkuvuutta
– TalSa
Britannian pääministeri David Cameron haluaa lopun EU:n
vapaalle liikkuvuudelle nykymuodossa. Hän aikoo esittää vaatimuksensa lokakuun
lopun EU-huippukokouksessa Brysselissä.
Viikkokatsaus: Q3 BKT-kausi alkaa väkevästi vaikka
luottamus yskii – Nordea
Tulevaa: Ostopäällikköindeksit painuvat alas * Kiina ja
Britit avaavat BKT-kierroksen * Suomen kotimainen kysyntä heikkoa Mennyttä:
Yhdysvallat odotettua vahvempi * Inflaatiovauhdeissa isoja eroja
Pääkirjoitus: Työllisyysaste valuu liian alas Suomessa
– HS
Näkökulma: Eurokriisin selätys jäi haaveeksi – Paavo
Teittinen / HS
Köyhdymme kaikki ainakin hetkellisesti – mutta kyse onkin
köyhtymisen suhteesta ja tavasta – Tyhmyri
Sisäinen devalvaatio alkoi - Palkat alenevat jo – TE
Näin paljon maksamme EU:lle – Miksi Suomi ei hae
alennusta jäsenmaksuihin? – PS
Pelastuisiko Suomi sadan vuoden asuntolainoilla? – TalSa
Ruotsissa pitkät, etupäässä korkojen maksamiseen keskittyvät
asuntolainat vapauttavat kotitalouksien varoja muuhun käyttöön. Suomalainen
haluaa kuitenkin maksaa velkansa ja omistaa kotinsa.
Korhonen paljastaa:
KMS-vaalirahakohu pientä - keskustalle jättituet
elinkeinoelämältä vuonna 1987 – IS
Väyrynen ja Kääriäinen jakoivat rahaa itselleen vuoden 1987
vaaleissa – IS
Keskusta maksatti miljoonavelat valtiolla – IL
Näin syntyi yksi Suomen poliittisen historian tunnetuimmista
sopimuksista – IS
Media pesi rahaa, lukijoita huijattiin – Verkkouutiset