9th Oct - Nervous markets, European reforms

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Wednesday: IMF continues warnings, FOMC minutes

Tuesday: IMF lowers outlook

Credit Guest: Sprezzatura

Monday: Bears take control after lousy data

W/E: Random Charts

W/E: Linkfest

W/E: Weekly Support

W/E: Best of the Week

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EUROPE

Governments must avoid scapegoating public sector for problems – Europp / LSE

Germany, Spain, Sweden and the UK – little evidence to suggest that the failure to modernise the public sector in these countries was a key driver in the economic problems caused by the crisis.

‘Euroglut’ of gloom as Germany weakens – FT

Concern that eurozone could become a destabilising global force

  

Renzi victory as Senate backs reforms – FT

Italy’s upper house approves new measures to boost employment

  FRANCE

Au Revoir to France’s Welfare Model as Socialists Cut Spending – BB

Hollande in Lobbies’ Grip Has Abandoned Socialism, Batho Says – BB

Hollande Falls Into Line as Merkel Fends Off EU Spending – BB

  GERMANY

German model is ruinous for Germany, and deadly for Europe – The Telegraph

Ambrose-Evans Pritchard: France may look like the sick man of Europe, but Germany’s woes run deeper, rooted in mercantilist dogma

Germany is killing its economy – and Europe’s, too – WaPo

Eastern German State Elections: Advantage for CDU and populist AfD – DB Research

German exports plunge by largest amount in five-and-a-half years – Reuters

German Exports Slide Most Since 2009 as Economy Stumbles – BB

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

Mario Draghi’s secret plan to lower the euro – TradingFloor

Germany's Angela Merket is reluctant to give in to pressure to boost spending * Draghi's update on the ECB asset buying plan had little impact on the markets * The short-term outlook for the EURUSD is positive

Draghi Policies Blunted in Berlin as German Protests Grow – BB

Draghi has stopped short of large-scale sovereign-bond purchases as efforts to mollify Germany’s political elite do little to silence criticism of his ever-more expansionary measures.

European Inflation Expectations Collapse To New Record Lows – ZH

Mario Draghi: Recovery and Reform in the euro area – ECB

Draghi flips Keynes – FT  

Draghi vows to fight eurozone deflation – FT

ECB's Draghi says expects lending to pick up soon in 2015 – Reuters

Monthly Bulletin, October 2014 – ECB

The impact of the economic crisis on euro area labour markets – ECB

The assessment of fiscal effort – ECB

UNITED STATES

The Federal Deficit is Now Smaller than the Average Since the 1980s – WSJ

Tapering is tightening? – FT

A funny thing has happened since the Federal Reserve announced it would begin cutting back on its bond-buying on Dec 2013: the yield curve has flattened like a pancake.

QE Has (Nearly) Ended. But How Will The Fed Unwind It? – Forbes

The unwinding of QE will take a very long time, possibly decades. By the time it is fully unwound, it may be that financial institutions – both banks and non-banks – will have gotten used to IOER, overnight reverse repos and other forms of “unconventional” monetary management. I suspect that IOER and the associated tools are here to stay. “Normal” will never be quite the same again.

  FED SEPTEMBER MINUTES (from Wed)

Fed Leery Guidance Changes Might Be Misread – WSJ

Fed Officials to Be Flexible on How They Raise Rates – WSJ

FOMC Talks Down Dollar, Fears Growth Slowdown, "Considerable Time" Misunderstood – ZH

Hilsenrath Confirms Dovish Fed Talking Down The Dollar – ZH

Panic Buying Ensues After FOMC Minutes Unleash Weaker Dollar – ZH

Wall Street is nervous Fed will mess up the tightening – FT

Fed Minutes Takeaway: Bad News Is Still Good News – WSJ

The Fed’s Housing Dilemma – WSJ

"Costs of downside shocks larger than those of upside shocks" – Calculated Risk

The Fed minutes: We read them so you don’t have to! – WaPo

The Fed needs to learn from its successes in the 1990s – WaPo

Quick Thoughts on FOMC Minutes and the Dollar – Marc to Market

Liftoff expectations shift to a year from now – Sober Look

The Fed notices the dollar – Macro Man

U.S. Fed frets over strong dollar, global woes – Reuters

ASIA

Kuroda Says Many Options Available for Any Increased Easing – BB

The Bank of Japan has “many options” for additional easing, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, emphasizing that the bank would adjust its policy if needed to reach its 2 percent inflation target.

OTHER

Daily Macro – WSJ

As finance ministers and central bank governors gather in Washington for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the Group of 20, they are confronted by the harsh reality of a global economy that refuses to accelerate growth.

Daily Central Banks – WSJ

Hilsenrath’s Take: Look Out for Falling U.S. Inflation Expectations * Fed Minutes Show Concern About Weak Overseas Growth, Strong Dollar * Fed Head of Monetary Affairs English to Take on New Role as Adviser * New York Fed Needed a Culture Change, Columbia Professor Says * BOJ’s Kuroda ‘Convinced’ 2% Inflation Will Benefit Japan

EMEA Weekly, Week 42 – Danske Bank

Are Growth Concerns Really the Driver? Also a note on Breadth – Global Macro Trading

Looking At Global Stock Markets – The Short Side of Long

WSJ SURVEY

Economic Forecasting Survey – WSJ

International Drag Could Be Geopolitical Shock or Growth Slowdown - WSJ

Economists Downgrade Their Inflation Outlook – WSJ

Most Economists Confident in Fed’s Exit Tools – WSJ

  IMF

IMF Survey: World Economy Needs Smart Fiscal Policies – IMF

IMF Research Bulletin -- September 2014 – IMF

IMF Fiscal Monitor -- Back To Work: How Fiscal Policy Can Help, October 2014 – IMF

IMF Video:Press Briefing: Global Financial Stability Report – IMF

Just how bad is IMF forecasting? – Asia redux? – The Economist

Depreciating currencies and EM inflation: watch out – FT

FINNISH

Euro heikentynyt, muttei riittävästi – Nordea

Pääekonomisti Aki Kangasharju peräänkuuluttaa euroalueelle sen kipeästi tarvitsemaa tuottavuuden kasvua sekä heikompaa euroa.

Stubbin kolumni: Toiveiden kaivosta punnittuihin valintoihin – Kokoomus

Velkajarru väärä lääke – Roger Wessman