29th Oct - Fed ends QE3

After all, the job of the market is to thieve and steal as much money as possible, from as many participants as possible, in as many occasions as possible. 

- Short Side of Long

 

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Tuesday: USD weaker ahead of Fed

Monday: Post-traumatic Stress Test Disorder

ECB's Comprehensive Assessment (updated)

W/E: Linkfest

W/E: Weekly Support (updated)

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EUROPE

France and Italy get preliminary approval of their budgets – Open Europe

But it's not the end of the story

Bank of England’s Cunliffe Says Need to Raise Interest Rates Has Receded – WSJ

Managing global finance as a system - speech by Andrew Haldane – BOE

BOE’s Haldane to Boldly Go Where No Central Banker Has Gone Before – WSJ

Bank of England Chief Economist Andrew Haldane dreams that regulators will one day be able to monitor the colossal ebb and flow of capital across the globe in real-time, “from a Star Trek chair using a bank of monitors,” and work out where problems are brewing, much as meteorologists pore over complex weather patterns to spot the germ of a hurricane.

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

Press release euro area bank lending survey – ECB

Euro area bank lending survey Q3/2014 – ECB

Euro area loan demand continues to increase – Danske Bank

Bankers and borrowers disagree about European housing – FT

Credit standards for all loan categories eased in net terms. A positive net loan demand continued to be reported.

Now that that’s over… - FT

AQR research pack (registration required) – Longroom FT

SocGen AQR & Stress tests in 10 slides – Time to move on

Deutsche Bank: All major banks pass, job done

Deutsche Bank: On to the test which matters more

Credit Suisse: A step in the right direction

Morgan Stanley: After the AQR – remain overweight banks

Danske Bank: Capital shortfall less than expected

  SWEDEN

Riksbank rate decision: fight for credibility – Nordea

Message from the Riksbank largely in line with our expectations. The repo rate was cut to zero, slightly more than our forecast of 0.05%, and the interest rate path was revised sharply down. Supplementary measures such as QE and currency interventions were discussed only briefly in the Riksbank report and seem a long way off.

SEK: FX interventions next? – Nordea

While the Riksbank delivered slightly more than expected in October, EUR/SEK around 9.35 seems quite fair for now. While the Riksbank is arguing that the situation in Sweden “differs” from that in other countries which launched unconventional measures, this is true only insofar the SEK is not as obviously overvalued as was the case with the CHF and the CZK. That said, for FX interventions to occur, we need big data disappointments as well as a stronger currency.

Riksbank cuts rates to zero and mulls currency war to fight deflation – The Telegraph

Sweden's central bank is having to pick its poison, choosing between deflation or an asset bubble

How Sweden Joined Central Banking’s Hall of Shame – BB

European policy makers have been their own worst enemy in the fight to avoid recession and deflation.

UNITED STATES

Things To Watch in Thursday’s U.S. GDP Report – WSJ

Tomorrow’s GDP numbers will give a better read on the U.S. economy – WaPo

  FEDERAL RESERVE

The Fed Favors Guidance Over Bond Buys – WSJ

The Federal Reserve’s forward guidance has been a lot more effective at keeping long-term rates down and stimulating the economy than its three bond-buying programs

Print Less but Transfer More – Foreign Affairs

Why Central Banks Should Give Money Directly to the People

QE central bankers deserve a medal for saving society – The Telegraph

Let us give due credit to the heroes of our time - Ben Bernanke and Mervyn King - because the economic alternative would have been much worse

  FED MEETING

Parsing the Fed: How the Statement Changed – WSJ

End of QE3 Means Fed Statement Finally Shrinks – WSJ

Economists React to the Fed Statement: ‘Surprisingly Hawkish’ – WSJ

Fed Signals Fiscal Policy No Longer Seen as Drag on U.S. Economy – WSJ

Highlights from the FOMC statement, 29 October 2014 – FT

Hilsenrath Warns Mid-2015 Rate Hike Possibility – ZH

Sell-Side Responses "This Should Be A Risk Off Trade" – ZH

End of an Era: Fed Concludes QE; Stocks Fall – WSJ

Fed ends bond-buying, leaves guidance on rates unchanged – WaPo

Fed ends bond buying, shows confidence in U.S. recovery – Reuters

Fed Cites Job Market Gains as It Ends Asset Purchases – BB

OTHER

Daily Central Banks – WSJ

Hilsenrath’s Take: Critics Have Been Wrong About QE’s Most Ill Effects * Fed Set to End QE3, but Not the QE Tool * The Fed’s October Meeting – At A Glance * Bank of England’s Cunliffe Says Need to Raise Interest Rates Has Receded * BOJ Chief Takes Heat as Skepticism Over Abenomics Grows

Daily Macro – WSJ

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s announcement later Wednesday, but don’t expect too much of a surprise. With stock markets having all but fully recovered from the gut-wrenching losses of earlier this month – the Dow Jones Industrial Average, incredibly, is now only 1.6% below its record high – and with economic indicators in the rest of the world showing signs of stabilizing, the Fed has no need to hold back on an end to its quantitative easing program.

Dollar Narrowly Mixed as Fed Awaited – Marc to Market

Focus on Fed, but New Inputs for BOJ and ECB – Marc to Market

FINNISH

  SUOMI

Tarkastusviraston pääjohtaja: Taloudessa on vakava kansallinen hätätila – SK

Tuomas Pöysti arvostelee Kanava-lehdessä hallitusta vitkastelusta rakennepoliittisissa uudistuksissa.

Teollisuudelta mustia lukuja – laivatilaukset tuovat vähän valoa – Verkkouutiset

Markkinatilanne jatkuu epävarmana – Teknologiateollisuus

Teknologiateollisuuden tilaukset kasvoivat heinä-syyskuussa. Kasvun takana ovat yksittäiset, arvoltaan suuret tilaukset. Pk-yritysten olisi kyettävä lisäämään suoraa vientiään.

Tilanne ja näkymät 4/2014 – Teknologiateollisuus

Graafit pptx, pdf

Puolueiden imagotutkimus: Kokoomus entistäkin ylimielisempi – YLE

Kokoomuksen julkinen kuva on ylimielisempi kuin kertaakaan 2000-luvulla, kertoo Yle Uutisten käsiinsä saama puolueiden yhteinen imagotutkimus.

Ylen selvitys: Porvarihallitusta pukkaa – YLE

Yle Uutiset on haastatellut poliittisia johtajia, ja laatinut vaihtoehtoisia hallituskuvioita. Vain hurja vaalivoitto nostaisi demarit hallitukseen. Keskustelujen pohjalta muotoiltiin 30 mahdollista hallitusohjelman kirjausta.

  

Tuloja entistä vaikeampi pimittää ulkomaille – Verkkouutiset

Suomi sitoutuu automaattiseen verotietojen vaihtoon lähes 50 valtion kanssa.

Finanssipolitiikan säännöistä – Akateeminen talousblogi

Pertti Haaparanta: Sveitsin velkajarru on yksi esimerkki finanssipolitiikan säännöistä, melko huono (ei huonoin) sellainen. Mutta mitkä ovat hyviä sääntöjä?

  EUROOPAN UNIONI

Suurpankkien stressitestit taas talousteatteria – Jan Hurri / TalSa

Euroalueen suurpankkien stressitestit olivat aiemmin silkkaa talousfarssia. EKP on juuri saanut päätökseen entistä perusteellisemmat ja entistä vakavammat pankkitestit. Ehkä ne eivät olleet enää farssia, mutta talousteatteria kuitenkin. EKP:n asema esti aidosti riippumattoman ja ankaran riskianalyysin.

”Viidennes Euroopan pankeista maksukyvyttömyysuhan alla” – PS

Ranskan ja Italian budjettiesitykset kelpasivat komissiolle – PS

  ASUNTOMARKKINAT

Kun asuntomarkkinoilla viimeksi kävi näin, edessä oli romahdus – TE

Myyjät antoivat periksi: Asunnoissa on nyt ostajan markkinat – HS

Tausta: Työttömyys ja korot vaikuttavat hintoihin – HS

Taantuma syventää omakotitalo-omistajan ahdinkoa – YLE