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EUROPE
The ongoing
crisis in Ukraine has been a hot topic of analysis
for almost a year. But one question has largely escaped thorough examination: what
Russia’s annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine indicates about the EU’s foreign
policy.
Exclusive:
EU executive sees personal savings used to plug long-term financing gap – Reuters
The savings
of the European Union's 500 million citizens could be used to fund long-term
investments to boost the economy and help plug the gap left by banks since the
financial crisis, an EU document says.
French
finance minister says not in EU's powers to reject budget – Reuters
Europe's
executive arm does not have the authority to reject France's budget over missed
deficit-cutting targets, French Finance Minister Michel Sapin said on Tuesday
as he announced that no further spending cuts would be made next year.
90% of the
country’s external debt was attributable to banks and other (non-government)
sectors
“Learning
From Europe”, Paul Krugman lecture slides – Princeton
Lecture
slides, actual lecture here.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
The
ECB’s Faulty Weapon
– Project
Syndicate
Daniel
Gros: With inflation in the eurozone stubbornly remaining on a downward
trajectory, pressure on the European Central Bank to do “something” to prevent
outright deflation is growing. But, given the financial structure of eurozone
countries, would the preferred "something" – quantitative easing –
actually do the trick?
Q&A
With German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann – WSJ
German
Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann discussed the ECB’s recent policies,
reiterated his opposition to government bond buys, and warned against central
banks coming under too much political pressure.
Bundesbank
Blasts Draghi's QE, Fears "Monetary Policy Is Hostage To Politics" – ZH
ECB's
readiness to act again doesn't mean it should do so now: Weidmann – Reuters
GERMANY
German
Industrial Output Drops Most Since 2009 in August – BB
German
August industry output plunges most in five-and-a-half years – Reuters
Plunge in
industrial production stokes German recession fears – FT
Data, IMF
outlook point to German economy running out of steam – Reuters
Europe's Triple-Dip Recession: German
Industrial Production Crashes – ZH
UNITED STATES
LABOR
MARKET CONDITIONS INDEX
Fed’s Labor
Market Conditions Index Strengthens – BB
Fed's Labor
Market Conditions Index – Calculated
Risk
A few
observations on the Fed's new LMCI – Danske
Bank
Why the Fed
does not publish the level of the LMCI index but only the change – Danske
Bank
The Fed's
Important New Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) – Forbes
How to test
whether the LMI (LMCI) is a good indicator – Worthwhile
CoreLogic:
House Prices up 6.4% Year-over-year in August – Calculated
Risk
ASIA
BOJ
Keeps Policy Unchanged With Yen Near Six-Year Low – BB
The Bank of
Japan maintained its record stimulus as the yen traded near a six-year low and
economists pushed back forecasts for further monetary easing.
BOJ's
Kuroda pledges prolonged stimulus but signals no immediate action – Reuters
Bank of
Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stressed his resolve to maintain massive
stimulus for a prolonged period but shrugged off the need to expand it soon,
remaining upbeat on the outlook despite signs the economy may be in a mild
recession.
RBA
Signals Aussie Drop Insufficient to Drive Growth Transition – BB
The
Australian dollar’s 7 percent decline in the past month is insufficient to spur
the nation’s transition to domestic drivers of growth, the central bank said
today as it kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged.
No, it's
not Hong
Kong,
which is already in the headlines, but Korea.
OTHER
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Data from
around the world have come together Tuesday to remind investors that everywhere
but the U.S. is in a rather glum state. The
U.K., which had been one of the world’s top performers, showed signs of
softening in its manufacturing sector, and Taiwan, whose booming electronics
exports had offered hope for a pickup in global demand, saw weaker exports in
that critical sector. Germany, meanwhile, continued to make a
poor showing for its industrial sector. All of this serves to highlight the
comparative strength of the U.S. and reaffirm the bets of those who
have pushed the dollar higher for the past three months.
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Schlesinger’s
Take: BOJ’s Kuroda, Facing New Heat, Tempers Outlook, Maintains Policy — For
Now * George Says Fed Should Move Toward Raising Rates * BOE Plans Additional
Depositor Protection * Bundesbank Board Member Voices Criticism of ECB Moves to
Boost Inflation * Irish Central Bank to Introduce Mortgage Debt Limits
Dollar
Correction Continues –
Marc
to Market
Wall
Street Journal and Absolute Strategy Unveil New Economic Indexes – WSJ
Global
Economy and Labor Markets Show Improvements, Say New Indexes – WSJ
Our
essential trades for Q4 – Saxo
Bank
Opportunities
in a debt-ridden world
IMF
IMF
recommends overhaul of sovereign bonds – FT
The IMF has
warned that the US court’s decision could make future
sovereign debt restructurings more complicated. The Fund has made two major
recommendations aimed at changing clauses within bond contracts, a move that
financial institutions also back.
World
Economic Outlook Update – IMF
Global growth
disappoints * Pace of recovery uneven and country-specific * Global growth at 3.3
percent in 2014 rising to 3.8 percent in 2015 * Legacies from crisis, low
potential growth weigh on recovery * Increased downside risks to global growth,
including financial and geopolitical
WEO Ch.
1: Recent developments, prospects and policy priorities – IMF
WEO Ch.
2: Country and regional perspectives – IMF
[video] IMF Says Uneven Global Growth
Disappoints – IMF
IMF Cuts
Global Growth Expectations, Still 30% Above Consensus – ZH
A tour of
the world’s slowing economy, in five charts – WaPO
IMF getting
it wrong again and again – FT
IMF Comedy:
The Complete History Of The Growth "Forecasts" Since 2012 – ZH
The age of
diminishing expectations – The Economist
IMF sees
risk of new eurozone recession – FT
IMF Cuts
Global Outlook as Risk of ‘Frothy’ Stocks Raised – BB
Global
Housing Prices: It’s a Tale of Two Worlds – WSJ
An index
tracking global property prices in 50 countries shows prices haven’t much risen
over the past five years, but new research from the International Monetary Fund
shows how averages can be misleading.
The new
world economy in four charts – FT
The China phenomenon is part of a wider
expansion of emerging markets’ output relative to the advanced world.
FINNISH
Kommentti:
Onko lentoemäntien tie Suomen tie - palkat alas? – MTV
Lamatutkija Ylelle: Näin käy, jos palkkoja aletaan
alentaa – Verkkouutiset
90-luvun suurlamaan perehtynyt palkansaajien
tutkimuslaitoksen erikoistutkija Pekka Sauramo ei näe palkka-aleja hyvänä ratkaisuna.
Ruotsissa arvostellaan Suomen asuntolainoja – TalSa
EU:n uusissa haasteissa – Brysselin
kone / YLE
Vieraana Olli Rehn
ELÄKEVARALLISUUDEN
PÖLLIMINEN
Raportointivelvoitteet kasvattavat EU:n vaikutusvaltaa
työeläkevakuuttajiin – TELA
Mikael Kronholm: Komission päätöksestä sisällyttää
työeläkeala julkisyhteisöihin on ollut hyviä ja huonoja seurauksia.
Työeläkealan näkökulmasta siitä on seurannut erityisesti viime vuosina myös aivan
uudenlaisia uhkakuvia.
Huoli heräsi: Haluaako EU Suomen 170 miljardin euron
aarteen näppiensä alle? – TE
EU-suunnitelma: Eläkesäästöjä pitäisi käyttää entistä
enemmän talouden elvyttämiseen – TE