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EUROPE
The German
economy is doing fine right now with expected GDP growth between 1½% and 2% this
year. Under the surface, however, there are several structural risks and
challenges to longer-term growth. Politically, the battles about QE and with Greece indicate a growing unease in Germany about how things in Europe are developing. Germany has become a less compromising
partner to deal with.
Nordics:
Blue-eyed monetary policy – Nordea
The
pressure on the three monetary policy regimes in the Nordic countries
intensified at the beginning of 2015. In Denmark, and possibly also in Sweden, the pressure is expected to ease
during the forecast horizon. In Norway, however, challenges are waiting
ahead.
The
Structural Reforms Bark but the Deficit Moves On - euinside
There is no
doubt that the eurozone crisis is now in the past since the Commission and the
Council have approved, without objections, the violations of fiscal rules to
begin again.
Greece and the Euro Area—Impasse or End
Game? – PIIE
No-one can
say with confidence, let alone certainty, what will happen afterwards.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Your
updated sovereign-bank loop – FT
The tone suggests
that the ESRB would like to see a change in the regulatory regime although it
is clearly a case of ‘Give me chastity, just not yet’
Is the
ECB sacrificing reforms on the altar of inflation? – Bruegel
QE reduces
pressure on governments to engage in painful, but necessary, structural reforms?
Don’t
Waste the ECB’s Gift to Finance and Budget Ministers – PIIE
The
windfall from the ECB should be put to sensible use. For Italy, that means reducing public debt,
limiting the losses in human capital, and improving the structure of the state.
For Germany, it means increasing physical capital
accumulation.
ECB
painted itself into a corner – Nordea
Even though
Draghi found the entire topic amusing, the ECB could easily run out of eligible
German bonds to buy. In any case, the buying restrictions will push the central
bank to buy bonds longer out the curve, adding downward pressure on long yields.
The ECB may soon face a situation, where it will once again have to backtrack
on its earlier pledges.
How The
ECB Is Distorting Euro Money Markets – ZH
Your
updated sovereign-bank loop - FT
This is why
the euro is collapsing - WaPo
UNITED STATES
US: Slow
growth in Q1 but outlook still solid – Danske
Bank
We revise
down our GDP growth forecast for Q1 to 1.7% q/q AR from 2.7% previously. For the
year as a whole, we now expect GDP growth of 2.8%, down from 3.0%
US:
countdown to lift-off – new Fed forecast – Nordea
In the
context of easy policy from other central banks we believe the Fed’s tightening
pace will be slightly slower than earlier anticipated. However, we continue to
believe that markets underprice the extent of Fed tightening. We now see the
(upper end of the) fed funds rate at 0.75% by end-2015 and 2.00% by end-2016.
The odds of lift-off in June or September are seen as roughly equal.
ASIA
FX Watch
– HKD peg to hold –
ABN AMRO
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Do You Still Think The Fed Is Behind the Curve? * WSJ Survey: Most Economists
See Fed Raising Rates in June or September * Fed ‘Stress Tests’ Still Pose
Puzzle to Banks * ECB Official Details First QE Purchases * Russia Cuts Interest Rates
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Despite the
correction seen in U.S. stock prices earlier this week,
global investors are still mostly upbeat about the outlook for equities. This
doesn’t necessarily reflect a broad-based confidence in the outlook for the
world economy. Rather, it is policy that has been driving money into stocks.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
ECB bond
buying has reached EUR 9,8bn and will continue * The strong USD triggered
profit-taking, and the risk seems to be more of it * Will 30 and 50-year euro
swaps move below 1%? * Greece gets more ELA liquidity
Daily
Shot – TF
Eurozone
benchmark yields continue sliding and are hitting record lows. Corporates are
now collapsing too with some investors apparently content with negative yields.
BRIC countries (excluding India) remain under pressure and although
China looks fragile on fundamentals, the Shanghai
Composite is firing on all pistons.
US Open – ZH
Euro
Resumes Slide After Goldman Cuts Forecast, Expects Parity In 6 Months; Futures
Flat
From the
Floor – TF
WTI prompt
spread widens to $2/b plus as "upside remains limited," says Hansen *
WTI could slip to $45.28/b with upside capped at $48.75/b * Gold falls for
ninth consecutive day to break 42-year old record * Dollar strength continues
to dominate commodities despite slight slip Thursday * Market sentiment starts
to turn towards next week's FOMC meeting * EURUSD one-month vols oscillate
wildly as intraday spot range hits 200 bps * Nikkei zooms above 19,000 for
first time in nearly 15 years * European bonds rally stutters
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch
– FT
China's dilemma - Dealing with past
excesses and present needs simultaneously
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Kuka pelkää negatiivista korkoa? | Venäjän keskuspankki
pitää todennäköisesti ohjauskoron ennallaan | EKP osti kolmen ensimmäisen
päivän aikana joukkolainoja 9,8 miljardilla eurolla
”Suomi nousee vain veronalennuksilla, euroon liittyminen
virhe” – HS
Björn Wahlroos: Suomen olisi ollut parempi pysyä markassa
– Verkkouutiset
Björn Wahlroos: Euroopan velkavuoret ovat pyramidihuijaus
– YLE
Tässä on taloustieteen historian kymmenen parasta idea
– HS
Sipilä: Jokainen suomalainen joutuu maksumieheksi – YLE
Roger Wessman: Palkkojen jäädytys nollasummapeliä – KL
Linkkejä Suomen ongelmista ja virheistä – Roger
Wessman
FT: Suomen talous vaikeuksissa – Suomen
Uutiset
Antti Rinne myönsi: Yhteisöveron laskeminen ei ole
toiminut – Suomen
Uutiset
Ilmarisen tj: Yritysten kyky uudistua elinehto Suomen
kilpailukyvylle – Verkkouutiset
Kokoomus haluaa suomalaiselle teollisuudelle EU:n
edullisimman sähkön – Verkkouutiset
Danske Bank: Deflaatiokierteen mahdollisuutta ei voi
sulkea pois – Verkkouutiset
Slunga-Poutsalo: Borg tarjoilee vääriä lääkkeitä – Verkkouutiset
Slunga-Poutsalo: Potilas kuolee väärällä lääkityksellä
– Suomen
Uutiset
Talouden olkinuket liekeissä – Jouko
Marttila
Kymmenen oikeasti loistavaa taloustieteen ideaa – Libera
Vaihtotase ylijäämäinen, pääomaa vietiin Q4/2014 – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden liikevaihto supistui Q4/2014– Tilastokeskus
Rakennuskustannukset helmik. +0,7% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palvelujen liikevaihto Q4 +4,0% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palkkasumma Q4 +0,6% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Kansantalouden tuotanto kasvoi tammikuussa – Tilastokeskus
Inflaatio helmik. -0,1% - Tilastokeskus