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EUROPE
For
economist Loretta Napoleoni, specialist on terrorism and how it is funded, the
Islamic State (IS) does not pose a direct threat on the European continent, but
Europeans are not financially and legally equipped to fight young radicals and
former fighters returning from the Middle East.
Nordics:
Central banks going for broke – Nordea
The focus
is on the central banks: in Denmark and Sweden, unprecedented measures have already
been put into place, while Norges Bank is dithering over when to cut rates.
Although the goals differ, the situation requires unorthodox and unusual
measures.
UNITED KINGDOM
BOE’s
Broadbent: Deflation Unlikely in UK – WSJ
GBP:
election risks to turn trend – Nordea
Softer
labour market data from the UK recently suggests the BoE may be patient for
longer. Growing election risks in May have already boosted volatility and
should support higher EUR/GBP.
GREECE
Neither
Grexit, nor Grexident. Euro and 'drachma' in parallel? – Reuters
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Schäuble:
Wrong to Support QE While Criticizing German Surplus – WSJ
Draghi a
World-Beater in Moving Markets as ECB Confounds Critics – BB
UNITED STATES
Fed's
Fischer: Nonbank financial sector less vulnerable than before crisis – Reuters
Fed’s
Fischer Says More Work Needed to Protect Financial System – BB
Talkin' and Yellen: Understanding the Fed – Marc
to Market
Final Q4 GDP
2.2%, Unchanged, Below Expectations; Corporate Profits Tumble – ZH
Growth
slows in fourth quarter; corporate profits fall – Reuters
UMich
Consumer Sentiment Drops For 2nd Month In A Row – ZH
ASIA
Growing
Speculation BOJ Easing May Outlast Kuroda’s Tenure – WSJ
JPY: QE
questioned – Nordea
Headline
inflation is slowing in Japan as elsewhere, but core inflation should remain
sticky due to the tight labour market. The BoJ and government do not agree on
the QE - is more needed? Short term risk: stronger JPY.
OTHER
EURUSD:
correction or trend change? – Nordea
The EUR/USD
reacted to the ECB QE launch as anticipated, and bounced. The "policy
divergence" theme is in question as increasing volatility suggests
indecision - and potential for further upward correction in the near term. If
the pair reaches 1.1450, we may have to revise our forecasts, which see 1.05 at
end 2015.
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Derby’s Take: Lockhart Explains How He Became Fed’s “Bellwether” * Lockhart
Says Dollar Rise Becoming Bigger Issue for Fed * Fed’s Fischer Urges Vigilance
on Shadow Bank Risks * ECB’s Draghi Expects QE to Reach 60 Billion Euros By End
of March * Japan’s Zero Inflation a Setback for
Abenomics
Daily
Macro – WSJ
As the week
winds down and the quarter slides toward a close, the global story seems to be
one of gradual rebalancing.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eurozone
banks are lending –
ABN AMRO
Bank
lending in the eurozone is expanding, with monthly loan flows accelerating…this
is consistent with survey evidence of easing lending standards and stronger
demand * Greece: deposit withdrawal running at a faster pace than in 2012
Euro
rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Treasury
yields rise despite geopolitical concerns * Oil prices up, equities down * Intra-euro
spread conversion takes a breather * Fed speeches to drive the EUR/USD over the
day
Morning
Markets – TF
Daily FX Comment – Marc
to Market
Dollar
Extends Yesterday's Recovery
Daily
Shot – TF
The
Eurozone's economic prospects continue to surprise to the upside, but the
ongoing threat of a Greek exit (as well as the problems that brought such a
proposal to the table) continue to threaten Continental stability.
Futures
Wipe Out Early Gains In Volatile Session As Dollar Resumes Climb; Oil Slides
FX
Update – TF
EURUSD more
thoroughly rejected the 1.1000 level yesterday with a deep sell-off after
posting new highs and action in other USD pairs helps to build the case for
continuing USD recovery.
From the
Floor – TF
Japanese
core CPI hits zero in February * Fed chair Janet Yellen slated to speak today *
European automotive sector overbought * Yemen oil price spike "just a
blip" * Greek bonds sell off on grim bank deposits data
The many
roads to stagnation - There is no shortage of reasons for secular slowdown
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Menojen leikkaukset jääneet vain puheiden tasolle |
Britannian parlamenttivaalit kaivavat maata punnan alta | Saudi-Arabian
sotilasoperaatio Jemenissä nosti raakaöljyn hintaa
Julkisen sektorin leikkaukset, elvytys ja luottamus –
katsokaa lukuja mielikuvien sijaan – Tyhmyri
Vartiainen kuuden miljardin leikkauslistasta: "Ihan
asiallinen" – IL
Kokoomus on valmis seuraavalla vaalikaudella kuuden
miljardin euron suuruisiin leikkauksiin.
Rinne: Kuuden miljardin leikkaus mahdottomuus – IL
Ministeri kertoi iltapäivällä, että virkamiesten
aamupäivällä esittämä kuuri on liian raju. Valtiovarainministeri Antti Rinne
(sd) sanoo, ettei kuuden miljardin euron leikkauksia voi tehdä neljässä
vuodessa.
Asiantuntija puolueiden leikkaushaaveista: "Suuret
leikkaukset olisivat tuhoisia" – IL
Dosentti ampuu alas leikkauslinjan. - On vastuutonta
leikata, kun talous menee lujaa vauhtia alas, Aalto-yliopiston dosentti,
kauppatieteiden tohtori Mika Pantzar sanoo Iltalehdelle.
Suomi voi joutua Brysselin ohjaukseen – KS
Aalto-yliopiston professori Matti Pohjolan mukaan keskeinen
syy Suomen talousongelmiin on työn tuottavuuden kasvun pysähtyminen.
Järkevän maahanmuuttopolitiikan perusteet – Sampo Terho
Perusturvan riittävyyden arviointiraportti 2011–2015
– THL
Kahden sortin perusturvaa – Eläketutka
Vähittäiskaupan pikaennakko: helmik. myynti -0,9% prosenttia
YoY – Tilastokeskus
Osakeasuntojen hinnat lähes ennallaan helmikuussa – Tilastokeskus
Kuluttajien luottamus keskimääräisellä tasolla maaliskuussa
– Tilastokeskus