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EUROPE
‘Outperformance’ of EU shares due to weak euro
and strong dollar
The whys
and hows of a single market for Europe - Bruegel
Popular
parties blight Rajoy’s electoral fortunes - FT
Juncker
plan not a route to boosting recovery – Europp
/ LSE
While it
has been portrayed by some observers as a route to helping the Eurozone’s
recovery, it will require far more than the Juncker plan to stimulate growth in
Europe’s ailing economies.
SNB keeps
hands off rates - but keen to touch CHF still - Danske Bank
Riksbank
QE should hold the krona back, but the Riksbank is fighting gravity – Nordea
The
Riksbank is scared ECB QE will weigh on EUR/SEK. The Riksbank's 30bn QE
expansion should be enough to hold the SEK back somewhat until May. We expect
the Riksbank will have to launch further stimulus. In a sense however, the
Riksbank is fighting gravity: the weaker the krona the harder it will be to
prevent it from strengthening
GREECE
Greece and creditors bicker ahead of
summit – FT
Greek miss the
link between sovereignty and solvency – Marc
to Market
A tale of
floods and dams – Bruegel
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
FI investor
survey: views on impact of QE – ABN AMRO
ECB appears
to have succeeded in limiting deflation expectations * Bond yields expected to
remain low * About half of investors are planning to change their positioning
on QE * Majority of investors see value in riskier credits * Vast majority of
participants expect a reduction of liquidity * Two-thirds of investors see
asset price bubbles as the main negative side effect of QE
Economic
Bulletin 2/2015 – ECB
The 2015
macroeconomic imbalance procedure – ECB
Liquidity
conditions and monetary policy operations Nov 2014-Jan 2015 – ECB
ECB
Makes Life Tough For Its Neighbors – WSJ
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL RESERVE
FOMC
members now project September liftoff – Danske
Bank
FOMC
update: We push the first rate hike from June to September – Danske
Bank
John J
Hardy: dovish kneejerk, but how much follow through? – TF
The FOMC
statement and materials were dovish and dollar bearish * There is plenty of
emphasis on keeping all its rate hike options open * The impact on the dollar
may be limited until inflation and other data is available
Max
McKegg: USD bulls run for cover after FOMC statement – TF
Traders
caught short on EURUSD as Federal Reserve delays interest rate lift-off * Money
markets still see a good chance of a September rate hike * US dollar rally
having some influence on Fed's analysis
FOMC
Decision – Short Side of Long
US Dollar
is extremely overbought and sentiment overly bullish * Inflation expectations
are at levels where Fed remains dovish
A loss
of patience – The
Economist
The Fed
won’t be ‘patient’ anymore. Here’s what that really means – WaPo
Neil
Staines: Tsunami in a tea cup? – TF
Fed
earthquake causes tsunami in FX markets * US monetary policy retains a firmly
hawkish bias *Significant upside potential for GBP
The Fed
Turns Gloomier on the Supply Side – WSJ
Connect
These Dots: What Worries the Fed? – WSJ
The Fed
Versus Price Stability – Project
Syndicate
There is a
big difference between the US Federal Reserve’s mandate to maintain “stable
prices” – as enunciated in the Federal Reserve Act – and the Fed’s self-selected
target of 2% annual inflation. So how is it that policymakers have managed to
substitute the latter for the former?
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Fed’s “Dot Plot” Becomes Window to Its Soul * Fed Opens Door to Rate
Increase but Remains Cautious on Growth * Fed Officials Trim Back Estimates of
Interest Rate Rises Amid Big Forecast Changes * U.S. Regulators to Examine
Leveraged Loans More Frequently * ECB Says Banks Borrowed EUR97.8 Billion in
Latest 4-Year Loan Installment
Daily
Macro – WSJ
As the dust
settles from one of the wildest sessions in currency markets in years, the
dollar appears to have regained much of the ground it lost Wednesday in the
fallout from the Federal Reserve’s more-dovish-than-expected policy statement.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Fed moving
closer to pulling the rate trigger Massive downward pressure on US yields
EUR/SEK to correct lower
Daily
Shot – TF
While forex
markets were sent reeling by yesterday's seemingly hawkish (but actually
dovish) FOMC statement, the move seen in crude oil remained fairly muted.
Elsewhere, Sweden continues its ride aboard the
accommodation train and Ukraine heads from bad to worse.
Dollar
Regains Most Of Yesterday's "Flash Crash" Losses. Oil Resumes Slide;
10Y Under 2%
USD rallies
after post-FOMC falls * 'Stay long the US dollar' * Asia stocks up after Fed meeting * US 10-year Treasury yields head below
2% again * Low fuel costs helps FedEx beat expectations * Nintendo stock jumps
again
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch – FT
Osborne's
mastery of political budgets: Instead of electoral bribes, chancellor frames
the campaign
OTHER
Why did
rich-world deficits start exploding around 1980? – Noah
Smith
The
proximate cause was big tax cuts, without any offsetting spending cuts. The
beast was not starved, and tax cuts did not pay for themselves. But what was
the political-economic cause? I have a theory.
Emerging
Markets Briefer - March 2015 – Danske
Bank
http://www.danskebank.com/en-uk/ci/Products-Services/Markets/Research/Documents/EMBriefer_March_190315.pdf
What are
the macroeconomic effects of asset purchases? – vox
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Fed muutti ennakoivaa viestintäänsä | Riksbank leikkasi
yllättäen ohjauskorkoa | Englannin keskuspankki ei aio kiirehtiä
rahapolitiikkansa normalisoimista
VM:n virkamiesraportti talouspolitiikan lähtökohdista
– VM
Arvioidun hitaan kasvun oloissa julkisen talouden
velkasuhteen taittaminen laskuun edellyttäisi noin 6 miljardin euron (3 %/BKT)
sopeutustoimia vuoteen 2019 mennessä. Tämän mittaluokan sopeutustoimilla
valtiontalous ja kuntatalous palaisivat lähelle tasapainoa.
Rahaministeriö löi pöytään karmeat talousluvut – Verkkouutiset
Julkisen talouden sopeutustarve on kohonnut kuuteen
miljardiin euroon ja kestävyysvaje on revennyt kymmeneksi miljardiksi euroksi.
Julkisen sektorin leikkaustarpeen suuruus ja laatu - Markus Bunders
Kansankodin kuolinvuoteella – Suomen
Perusta
Suomella viime hetket välttää Ruotsin virheet
maahanmuutossa – Suomen
Uutiset
Simon Elo tarkastelee monikulttuurisen Ruotsin vaiettuja varjopuolia.
Ennen kuin seuraamme maahanmuutossa Ruotsin viitoittamaa tietä, on syytä
tarkastella maahanmuuton vaikutuksia ruotsalaiselle yhteiskunnalle.
Huonoja uutisia, hyviä neuvoja – Alex Stubb
Stubb Suomen julkisesta taloudesta: Olen äärimmäisen
huolissani – YLE
Juhana Vartiainen närkästyi: ”Jos savolainen saa työpaikan,
ei se ole pois karjalaiselta” - SK
Työperäisen maahanmuuton vastustaminen on vanhanaikaista
säännöstelyajattelua, sanoo VATT:n ylijohtaja.