Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
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EUROPE
“The
Eurozone has become a glorified debtors’ prison” – Europp
/ LSE
With no
lasting solution yet found for dealing with Greek debt, and economies in the
Eurozone continuing to suffer from weak growth, how can Europe finally solve
the problems brought on by the financial crisis? Philippe Legrain discusses the
policy failures at the root of the crisis, the need to stimulate demand in
Eurozone economies, and why the German focus on cutting wages to improve
competitiveness is simply exacerbating existing problems.
Germany rebalancing: Waiting for Godot? – CER
Far from
rebalancing, Germany’s trade surplus continues to grow. This
is in nobody’s interests. The German government could and should take steps to
reduce it. [press
release]
This
monetary union without a political one will continue to cause suffering and
divide the north from the south
Eurozone
not viable, says top fund boss Neil Woodford – BBC
GREECE
Greek
reform proposals — a first review – medium
Creditors
Reject Greece's Reform Proposals – BB
Greece Mulls Referendum as No Deal With
Lenders in Sight – BB
Euro zone
says Greek reform outline helpful, but needs 'troika' scrutiny – Reuters
A new low
for German-Greek relations? – Open Europe
Greece Folds (Again); Ready To Propose "New"
Reforms Immediately – ZH
Greece Told Not to Waste Time as Euro
Finance Ministers Meet – BB
OTHER EU-COUNTRIES
Austria
is fast becoming Europe's latest debt nightmare – The
Telegraph
A
mini-Greece is about to go off in Europe's heartlands, and markets don't even
know it
How the
Troika sealed Cyprus’ fate – The Press
Project
Cyprus
received loans only on the condition that its banks sold their branches in
Greece to a competitor in Athens at a fraction of their value.
Spain’s
Post-Franco Elite Under Attack From Rise of Popular Podemos Party – BB
Economic
Fact Book: Denmark
– Danske
Bank
Securing
free trade after Brexit likely in goods but far harder for services – Open
Europe
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB
Starts Buying German, Italian Government Bonds Under QE Plan – BB
Central
banks bought German and Italian debt, according to at least two people with
knowledge of the transactions, who asked not to be identified because the
information is private. They also purchased Belgian securities, one of the
people said, and a separate person said French notes were being acquired. Bonds
rallied.
Bond
Investors Move Towards Ever Riskier Debt – WSJ
Bond
investors are showing no inclination to fight the ECB, and are instead marching
towards ever riskier debt.
This Was
Not Supposed To Happen – ZH
Peripheral
bond spreads up 8bps, stock indices mixed on this first day of QE
Euro
issues – Polemic’s
Pains
The
monstrously low EU rates have, to no surprise, triggered a glut of Euro
issuances with another swathe hitting the wires.
"Size
Matters" For ECB Which Runs Into Unexpected Monetization Problem – ZH
Bundesbank
head criticizes large-scale bond buys on day of program’s launch
UNITED STATES
The Fed
has an uphill battle on "wage pressures" argument – Sober
Look
After
NFP, all roads lead to Fed view on inflation – TF
USD bulls
get excited after payrolls data * Stronger dollar reduces the need for a rate
hike * FOMC meeting on March 17-18 next test for USD
A
Prediction Market for Inflation, or Deflation – NYT
Will the
Fed undershoot its inflation target? – Scott Sumner
Bonds: How
firm a foundation? –
FT
Regulators
question if corporate debt could withstand a sudden reversal
Updated
Budget Projections: 2015 to 2025 – CBO
Budget Deficit to be lower than
previous forecast –
Calculated
Risk
ASIA
China:
Exports strong, trade balance surplus surges – Danske
Bank
Economists
React: Bring Out the Caveats, China’s Export Data Not Quite So Rosy – WSJ
OTHER
KVP's
Macro Take: Non-farm blow-out clears runway for 2H15 lift-off – TF
Inflation
looks to be the last bastion before the Fed decides to hike; a lost opportunity
to short the NZD and the USD, and the conviction calls that are coming through
- the USDCHF pair that just keeps giving, the focus on European equities and
the opportunity to get into Portuguese market that is still well down on GFC
lows.
How
Should Labor Productivity Be Measured? – FED
FX: con
verge – Nordea
ECB QE
kicks off this week and the focus shifts to Fed. They can't take it alone, can
they? Some convergence should happen soon.
Divergence
Theme Continues to Shape the Investment Climate – Marc
to Market
The ECB
announced that it will begin its accelerated asset purchases on March 9. The following day the US reported a sufficiently robust
employment report to reinvigorate expectations that the Federal Reserve will
raise rates before the end of the summer.
Bullish,
but "data dependent" – Humble
Student
Kenneth
Rogoff: The Stock-Bond Disconnect – Project
Syndicate
If the
risks that might help explain the price trends for stocks and bonds are real,
policymakers, too, should be careful not to throw caution to the wind.
Steady
Oil Prices and Strong Production Spur Storage Concerns – Marc
to Market
George
Magnus: Standing up to the march of the machines – The
Times
There is a
popular view that those who worry about the effects of digital technologies on
employment and social fabric are out of order. They are not.
Finance
is great, but it can be a real drag, too – Money
& Banking
There will
be little, if any, cost in terms of economic growth even if further increases
in capital requirements were to lead to some shrinkage of the size of the
financial sector in the advanced economies.
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Give Credit Where It’s Due to U.S. Stress Tests * Signals From U.S.,
China Show How Much Global Economy Has Shifted Since Crisis * ECB Buying Starts
New Era for Bonds, Euro * SNB Faces Political Backlash Over Franc Policy * Brazil
Inflation Hits Highest Level in Nearly Ten Years
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Last Friday
we got yet another outside-expectations U.S. jobs growth number. Now, on Monday,
Japan downgrades its GDP performance and the
eurozone is reminded that its problems with Greece are not yet over. All this, at the
same time the ECB finally launches a quantitative easing program that is
inherently driving the euro lower versus the dollar. Now all we need is
confirmation from the Fed that its first rate increase in eight years is indeed
in the works.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Mid-year
Fed hike on track: Positive payrolls pushing the US 10-year yield above 2.20%
USD smells a hike * ECB starts QE * Nordic inflation focus
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
to Market
ECB Bond Buying
Program Launched, Euro Firms
Daily
Shot – TF
China saw
its trade surplus hit a record level as February's imports and exports rallied
from early 2015 lows. Meanwhile, Greece is considering an early election as
Athens wishes to ensure it has the public's support should its debt proposals
be rejected.
US Open – ZH
Start Of
European QE Upstaged By Greek Jitters; Apple Unveils iWatch
FX
Update – TF
Friday’s US
employment report put the USD bull market back on track and this week is all
about looking for follow through higher in USD pairs, as only EURUSD and USDCHF
are entirely free of recent trading ranges.
From the
Floor – TF
That Brent/WTI
spread has narrowed to just under $10/barrel but fundamentals seem to indicate
that even if Brent continues to slip, WTI is unlikely to take advantage as it
is beset by its won headwinds. The prospect of an earlier Fed rate hike
meanwhile is causing ripples across markets.
Daily
Newsletter – TF
The week
ahead contains fewer high-level data releases than did last week, but the
launch of Eurozone QE and Friday's astonishing nonfarm payrolls print will
continue to send shockwaves through world markets.
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch
– FT
Living
standards, known unknowns
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Riksbank ei vakuutu inflaation kiihtymisestä | Nordean
Talousnäkymät julkistetaan keskiviikkona | EKP aloittaa osto-ohjelmansa tänään
Borg ja Suomen talous HeSarissa – eli ei mitään
tehtävissä – Tyhmyri
Eduskuntavaaliehdokas Olli Rehnin näkemys todellisuudesta
– Henri
Myllyniemi / US
Roger Wessman: Ruotsi – Suomi BKT 2014: 2-0 – Marketnoze
Roger Wessman: Saksan talous uusille urille – Marketnoze
Perussuomalaisten eduskuntaohjelman pääteemat julki –
Suomen
Uutiset
Perussuomalaisten vaalitavoitteet: Yritysvero ylös,
autovero alas – Verkkouutiset