Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new
material is published.
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Previously on
MoreLiver’s:
LAST WEEK
Investors
Dump Stocks For Safety Of Bonds & Bullion In Yellen's New "World Of
Confusion"
NEXT WEEK
Sun:
Greek elections too close to call * Wed: EU holds extraordinary summit on
migration crisis * Thu: German IFO business climate likely to show some China
impact * Sun: Catalan regional elections no convincing mandate for independence
Dividend
payers get a break from Fed decision
Weighing the Week
Ahead
– A
Dash of Insight
Despite
many signs of economic improvement, the Fed chose to maintain policy
accommodation at emergency levels. In a week that is light on data and long on
speeches, this news will be enough to keep Fed policy at the forefront. The
punditry will be asking: Has the Fed Assumed a Third Mandate?
Greeks
go to the polls again on Sunday, but the market impact should be limited this
time. PMI data from China will likely show continued weakness in the
manufacturing sector. We also get PMI data as well as the Ifo index from the
Euro area/Germany. Several speeches from Fed official including Chair Yellen
could give more insight into the recent decision not to hike rates. Top event
in the Nordics will be Norges Bank’s rate decision on Thursday. We expect
policy rates on hold and an easing bias.
The
Fed on hold for now – but wage pressures are brewing * We do not expect a hard
landing in
China
* Support for bonds and EUR short term.
Norges
Bank to cut its key policy rate by 25bp on Thursday * Chinese PMI manufacturing
to 47.5 from 47.1, still a very low level and reflects downside risk * PMI in
US and Europe will be followed closely for any signs of weakness from China and
emerging markets * Key ECB members, Draghi, Praet, Couere and Weidmann are
scheduled to speak next week. The market will scrutinise their words for any
hints on future ECB policy.
The
global economy is currently characterised by a significant divergence: advanced
economies are doing quite well, but emerging economies are struggling. In an
integrated world economy such divergence cannot last for a very long period. An
amazing divergence also appears to develop (or perhaps it has existed for some
time already) within the policy committee of the US Federal Reserve. This all
creates uncertainty. We have lowered our growth forecasts for a number of
important emerging economies.
The
Fate of Dollar Bulls Post-Fed