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EUROPE
Euro area Economic
Outlook: Still a vulnerable recovery – Nordea
We
see no need to change our growth forecast for the Euro area: 1.3% for this
year, 1.6% for 2016. We still expect the mainly consumption-driven recovery to
go on, but not to strengthen significantly. Recently, external downside risks
have increased. Inflation is likely to increase towards the end of this year,
but we expect it to remain below the ECB target for the whole forecast horizon.
Policy rates will remain very low and we expect the ECB will have to continue
buying bonds beyond 2016.
Father of the euro
fears EU superstate by the back door – The
Telegraph
Professor
Otmar Issing has warned against handing over control of tax and spending before
a democratic political union has been established
Germany's Schaeuble
Blasts Central Banks
– ZH
“Money
Printing Leads To Financial And Debt Crises”
Political
integration has contributed to rising inequality in the Eurozone – Europp
Economic
Uncertainty Weighs on the Eurozone – euinside
Who’s the Better
Keynesian? Schaeuble Says He’s the One – BB
Spain's Bonds
Yield Most Versus Italy in 2 Years Before Election – BB
Hollande chooses
friend for central bank job – Politico
REFUGEES
Europe Under
Siege?
– Project
Syndicate
Refugee Crisis
Reveals Total Lack of EU – euinside
Berlin threatens
neighbors over migration – Politico
UNITED STATES
Paul Krugman: Trump Is
Right on Economics – NYT
Why Paul Krugman thinks
Donald Trump is right – WaPo
FEDERAL RESERVE
Flying Mostly Blind
Heading Into the September FOMC Meeting – Tim
Duy
Ultimately, the Fed will need to choose between one of these two
arguments, and by doing so they will define a direction for policy. This will
be important new information.
Mark Thoma: Why the Fed
Must Banish the 1970’s Inflation Devil Before Raising Rates – The
Fiscal Times
My preference is for the Fed to wait until it actually sees clear
evidence of increasing inflation before slowing the economy and, at the same
time, slowing the wage growth that workers have been waiting so long to see.
However, that is likely too much to ask. But the Fed should at least be
patient.
Dembik Christopher: Why
the Fed should hike rates in September – TF
US rate rise problematic for emerging markets * Employment, inflation
likely strong enough for a Fed hike * September hike remains the most probable
outcome
Martin Wolf: The case
for keeping US interest rates low – FT
After nearly seven years of zero interest rates, the inflation of which
critics warned is invisible
World Bank chief
economist warns Fed to delay rate rise – FT
Fed should wait with
raising rates: World Bank economist – Reuters
Three Charts Illustrate
the Fed's Labor Market Dilemma – BB
For one thing, the historic relationship of labor market indicators such
as the separation rate with wage growth appears to have broken down.
OTHER
Macro Focus – The top 6
emerging markets at risk – ABN
AMRO
We have recently cut our growth forecasts for several EMs in Asia (South
Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand) and Latin America (Brazil, Colombia, Chile)
and expect overall EM growth to fall to around 3.5% this year (2014: 4.4%),
picking up to around 4.5% in 2016.
Jim Simons Rare
Interview – Market
Folly
TED Talk With the Mathematician Who Cracked Wall Street
China’s trade surplus surges 40% as imports plummet – FT
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
China Data’s Still
Keeping Tensions High
Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Asian Data Continues To
Disappoint
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Why Small Caps Could Be Poised for
Gains
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Global Daily – ABN
AMRO
Eurozone GDP growth was revised up
in Q1 and Q2, painting a picture of ongoing recovery * The ECB’s QE and
measures to repair the credit channel have contributed to this picture * China
trade continues to shrink – authorities likely to allow further moderate CNY
weakness
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Asian equity markets
mostly down, slightly stronger EUR * Chinese imports decline faster than
expected * General risk appetite still important for bond markets * GBP
recouping some of its earlier losses
Morning Markets – TF
It's a data-dependent
Tuesday as fresh releases from the Eurozone (GDP) and the US (small business
optimism, labour market conditions) make their way towards an anxious market.
Daily FX Comment – Marc
Chandler
Ten Things that Happened
on the US Labor Day
Daily Shot – TF
Stock markets are
declining in Asia and money is repatriating from emerging markets. This could
keep upward pressure on the USD.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Hollande confirms France
will accept 24,000 refugees as part of EU ‘burden sharing’ plan *
Government suffers
defeat as full purdah rules to apply to EU referendum * Tsipras raises prospect
of coalition with PASOK and To Potami * France to prepare for airstrikes on
Syria, Italy opposed * John Longworth: The EU is moving away from British
business * EU to grant farmers €500m to compensate for falling prices * Gazprom
holds first spot gas auction in Europe in concession to EU
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Parliament power play —
Trilogue dialogue — Farm protest pays off
US Open – ZH
Futures Soar After
Dramatic Chinese Last Hour Intervention Scrambles To Mask Latest Terrible Trade
Data
Frontrunning – ZH
Another day of watching and
wondering whether risk sentiment can get its act together as we watch the USD
super-majors drift around without conviction. Plenty at stake this week,
however, for CAD and NZD ahead of interesting central bank meetings.
Fresh trade data from
China stokes fears about the slowdown in the world's second-largest economy,
dealing another blow to Asian equity markets and crude oil and spurring buying
of euros.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Suomen
viennillä reilusti petrattavaa * Kiinasta surkeat ulkomaankauppaluvut * Saksan
teollisuustuotanto jäi heinäkuussa hieman odotuksista * Sijoittajien
luottamusta kuvaava Sentix-indeksi heikkeni syyskuussa
Pakolaiskriisi,
kannustimet ja salakuljettajat – Roger
Wessman
Lomia,
ylityökorvauksia ja sunnuntailisiä leikataan –
YLE
Tulevaisuudessa ensimmäinen sairauspäivä olisi
palkaton ja sunnuntailisät pienenisivät sadasta prosentista 75 prosenttiin.
Hallituksen
esitykset toimista kustannuskilpailukyvyn parantamiseksi –
Valtioneuvosto