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EUROPE
Towards a
consensus on the causes of the EZ Crisis – vox
There is not yet a consensus on what more
needs to be done in order to cope with the Eurozone Crisis. This column
introduces a new eBook on the causes and possible solutions to the problem. In
it, the authors highlight three ultimate causes for the Crisis. First, policy
failures allowed the imbalances to become very large. A second cause is the
lack of institutions to absorb shocks at the EZ level. The third one is crisis mismanagement.
[index
and full
pdf]
State of Juncker’s
union
– Politico
The
EU’s political credibility will take center stage along with one of its leading
politicians when Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker delivers the “State
of the Union” address Wednesday, an annual event taking on heightened
importance this year as Europe grapples with several ongoing crises.
Draghi's QE
Dispenses Unwanted Results to European Stock Buyers – BB
Asset-Backed Debt
Losses Mount as Draghi Support Proves Feeble – BB
German
industrial output up in July, strongest gain so far in 2015 – Reuters
UNITED STATES
It still appears that the Fed's top priority is making sure the cards
remain stacked against wage and salary earners.
The balance of the data
continues to be positive. There is little to suggest the imminent onset of a
recession.
Joseph Stiglitz: Fed Up with the Fed – Project
Syndicate
If the Fed focuses excessively on inflation, it worsens inequality, which
in turn worsens overall economic performance.
OTHER
FX: the Fed, the dollar and financial conditions
– Nordea
The first Fed rate hike
has been awaited for quite some time. The pattern of the past three major rate
hiking cycles is that the USD weakens by several percent after liftoff,
consistent with both QE experiences as well as with Dornbusch’s exchange rate
overshooting model. This may not be welcomed by the Fed or by other central
banks. How financial conditions develop will be crucial for the Fed and thus
for the dollar.
FX: follow reserve managers? – Nordea
Do reserve managers
drive the USD strength? Peak reserves mean USD will appreciate more? Will USD
share in global reserves keep growing?
The Macro Take: Ten days to Fed lift off but the
market must hold – TF
It's still touch and go
with ten days to go before a possible Fed hike, but one thing is for sure -
Janet Yellen - and the Fed as a whole - need to see buoyancy in the S&P 500
before any hike occurs and that means values sitting over and above 1800 come
September 16.
Peak everything, charted – FT
History tells us that a
rate hike cycle takes time to impact the economy and prices.
Known Unknowns and the Dollar – Marc Chandler
The decline in global
equity markets * Clumsy efforts have shaken China’s reputation * Fed is
confused
OECD: too early to see yuan devaluation as
attempt to boost exports
– Reuters
Multi-tasking: how to survive in the 21st
century – FT
Modern life now forces
us to do a multitude of things at once — but can we? Should we?
G20
G20 supports China’s
economic policy – FT
G20 defies gloom to
forecast rise in growth – FT
G20 eyes faster economic reforms as cheap credit not enough for
growth – Reuters
IMF's Lagarde says Fed
should not rush its rate rise decision – Reuters
G-20 Nations Pledge to
Avoid Competitive Devaluations – BB
Japan Isolated on China
as G-20 Embraces Zhou's Yuan Plan – BB
China's Stock-Market
Rout Is Almost Over, Says PBOC Governor – BB
Can the G20 growth plan
deliver? – TF
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Stocks Shrug Off China
Data
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
“Risk on/off” to guide
Fed hike * Strong jobs report doesn’t ensure September Fed lift-off * Growth
signals from China will drive long yields * Inflation surprise likely to help
NOK this week
Morning Markets – TF
With US markets closed
for the annual Labour Day holiday, Chinese markets are back in business
following last week’s two-day break. But though the mood in China was initially
cautiously optimistic, allowing indices track higher, markets hit the reverse
gear following a downwards revision of economic growth for 2014 to 7.3% from
7.4%.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
EU referendum bill
returns to the Commons with Government facing defeat over purdah rules
New poll finds narrow
majority of UK voters would vote to leave the EU * Juncker plans to make EU
member states pay for opting out of refugee relocation scheme * Germany agrees
to spend additional €6bn to deal with asylum seekers
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Farm protest — Refugees
in Germany — Brexit, Dexit and Caxit
It’s a holiday in the US today, but
the US dollar is well positioned for further strength this week, and
potentially across the board if risk sentiment can pull itself together and
avoid a further meltdown.
Friday's NFP may have
been somewhat inconclusive, but there is evidence that the dollar is coiled to
sweep the floor in the coming week or two. For now, however, it's the Emerging
Market currencies under the cosh.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Kiina
jatkaa globaalina murheenkryyninä, viime vuoden BKT:ta korjattiin alaspäin * Markkinareaktiot
USA:n työllisyyslukuihin ristiriitaiset * Hiljainen viikko edessä
Suomen talous taantuu ja muukin euroalue polkee
paikoillaan, vaikka EKP syöttää talouteen tuoretta tuohta minkä kerkiää.
Keskuspankki yrittää erityisesti saada kuluttajahintoja nousuun, mutta talous
ei tottele. Inflaatio tästä vielä puuttuukin.
"Myöntämisen edellytys on, että tuki on
välttämätöntä euroalueen ja sen jäsenvaltioiden rahoitusvakauden turvaamiseksi.
Kreikan tukeminen ei täytä ehtoa", sanoo Vihriälä.
Valtiovarainministeri Alexander Stubb (kok)
muistuttaa, että EU:n tiukka kuri ja tiukat säännöt koskettavat myös Suomea.
"EU:n sisällä on helpompaa käyttää talouspoliittista valtaa silloin, kun
oma talous on kunnossa. Jos Suomi joutuisi liiallisen alijäämän menettelyyn, se
menettäisi roppakaupalla sitä sananvaltaa", Stubb sanoo.