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EUROPE
Dreams of deportation – FT
Europe’s leaders have
squabbled over nearly every policy aspect of the refugee crisis, apart from
one: deportation. Most of them want more of it. But deportation is expensive,
complicated and laborious, meaning that across the EU only 40 per cent of
failed asylum seekers are ever sent home.
While the consequences
of Brexit for the rest of the EU and the Euro-area are very uncertain, Brexit
does not pose an immediate risk of Finland following Britain out of the union.
Still, Brexit would deliver a further blow to the already ailing Finnish
economy, increasing discussion and speculation of whether Finland should try
its luck outside the euro. Finnish bonds would take another hit in a Brexit
scenario.
GREECE
IMF Proposal on Greece
Sets Up Battle With Germany – WSJ
Europe May Buy IMF Out
of Greek Bailout – Handelsblatt
IMF's Call for a Greek
Debt Holiday Goes Too Far – View
/ BB
Commentary: Why the IMF
must walk away from Greece – Reuters
Greece wants Eurogroup
to focus on debt relief on May 24 – Reuters
De Grauwe: IMF Greece
Plan Approaches Total Debt Relief – BB
OTHER
Quantitative easing is
called ‘unconventional monetary policy’, but monetary policy could get much
more ‘unconventional’. Things like ‘helicopter money’, abolishing currency and
negative nominal interest rates have entered the public policy debate. This
column reports the views of leading experts on the future role of
unconventional monetary policy, and what might be called ‘unconventional
unconventional monetary policies’. Opinions are divided. There is a healthy
dose of scepticism on the effectiveness of current and future policies, but
also many respondents express urgency that central banks should have more
policy tools to affect inflation and real activity when the need arises.
Ultimately, the experts’ hesitations match those of central banks.
REGULARS
Oil at 6-month high, GBP gaining on
remain, AUD up on RBA minutes * US and UK inflation numbers in focus * Risk
appetite has improved overnight * How long will the détente in the currency
wars last?
There was an upbeat mood across much
of Asia today thanks to the share price rebound for Apple and firming crude
prices. Even China's Shanghai Composite managed to scrape into positive
territory in late trading. In Australia resources stocks gave the benchmark
S&P/ASX200 a boost while the release of the RBA minutes pushed AUD sharply
higher.
Euro wrap-up –
Daiwa
Daily Market Comment –
Marc
Chandler
The Meaning of Sterling and Aussie's
Advance Today
Daily Market Comment
– Macro Man
Sector stuff
Two economies that were
severely hit during the financial crisis report positive figures. Moody’s
upgraded Ireland’s sovereign debt projecting a better-than-expected economic
outlook for the nation. Bond yields fell in response and Greek 10y government
debt yield is back below 7.5%.
Osborne, Cable and Balls
unite to warn against Brexit * ORB poll puts Remain ahead, but ICM polling
shows big gap between online and phone results * Europe will face ‘populist
uprising’ if it cannot address migration crisis- says ex MI6 Chief * British
Land warns that referendum uncertainty is hitting investment * Sarkozy: France
must initiate EU Treaty change from summer 2017 * Bundesbank President: Helicopter
money “is not an issue” * Austria’s far-right Presidential candidate rules out
leaving Schengen, Eurozone and EU Referendum * IMF calls for interest and debt
payments on Greek bailout loans to be postponed until 2040 * ECB holds back on
purchases of Irish and Portuguese debt to avoid hitting issuer cap
Disunited nations —
Council goes pink — France campaign flurry
Futures Fizzle After Oil Fades
Bounce Above $48
Frontrunning – ZH
The recent US dollar
comeback has found resistance in places. From here USD bulls will watch today’s
US CPI data and tomorrow’s critical FOMC minutes for whether the path is open
to further USD gains.
Decreased likelihood of
a Brexit supports GBP * If US CPI is weak, USD might get hammered * Oil prices
are up since supplies are down * Higher crude prices supporting NOK, CAD
FINLAND
& FINNISH
Intian
kasvutarina on myönteinen, muttei ongelmaton * New Yorkin teollisuuden
luottamusindeksi laski odottamattomasti * Tänään tulossa USA:n ja Britannian
inflaatioluvut * Japanille povataan nollakasvua