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EUROPE
Erdoğan: No Turkey visa waiver, no refugee deal – Politico
The Economist was cautious about Britain joining
the euro – The Economist
What Good Is a United Europe to America? – The
Atlantic
A Brexit advocate says
U.S. support for the EU fundamentally misreads what the institution has become.
Merkel Caught Out as Erdogan Threatens to Ax
Refugee Deal – BB
Erdogan volley lands as
German cabinet holds two-day retreat * Chancellor flummoxed as refugee decline
fails to lift party
German Ifo Business
Climate Index Rises – CESifo
Germany: Ifo confirms
that growth continues – Nordea
GREECE
Just enough Greek debt
relief to keep IMF on board – Politico
Greek debt agreement
reached – Politico
Greece Wins Pledge for
Debt Relief as IMF Bows to Euro Proposal – BB
Greece reaches
breakthrough debt deal – FT
Euro zone hails
'breakthrough' with Greece, IMF debt deal – Reuters
Messy Greek debt deal
leaves key questions unanswered – FT
Another missed
opportunity for a more lasting deal to help Greece – Open
Europe
What the Greek Deal Does
and Does Not Do – Marc
Chandler
Eurogroup deal relieves
pressure on Greece – Pictet
The Greek government’s
equity portfolio – FT
The IMF, Trying to Lend
Europe Credibility, Risks Losing Some of Its Own – WSJ
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
Draghi in QE Quandary After Draining Bond Market
by $800 Billion – BB
It’s like building ‘a
boat in the open sea,’ says Rabobank * Germany could face hurdle in executing
QE plan: DZ Bank
ECB credit buying to start small, betting on
issue boom – sources – Reuters
ECB will aim to start
small when it begins buying corporate debt in June, seeking first to lure new
issuers and then slowly raise the monthly pace of purchases to 5-10 billion
euros
UNITED STATES
Should The Fed Tolerate
5% Unemployment?
– Tim
Duy
It seems to me then that
a central bank with a symmetric inflation target would choose to refrain from
further rate hikes when progress toward full employment had clearly decelerated
(or even stalled) and inflation remains below target. We will soon see if the
Fed agrees.
OTHER
Jan von Gerich: Bonds: Brexit contagion
considerations – Nordea
Brexit, if realized,
would not happen in a vacuum. It would have repercussion throughout Europe,
with some countries hit more than others. While it may be tempting to try to
estimate the vulnerabilities to Brexit by direct economic linkages to the UK
economy, market worries will probably be more determined by spill-overs
regarding political risks. On this measure, especially Dutch, Italian and
French bonds look vulnerable.
Why the global trade slowdown may matter – vox
Trade has been growing
more slowly since the Great Recession not only because global GDP growth is
lower, but also because trade itself has become less responsive to GDP. The
causes of the changing trade-income relationship have been studied, but its
consequences have not. This column presents a simple framework to assess some
of the demand-side and supply-side implications. The change hurts growth,
although the quantifiable effects are not large.
REGULARS
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Greek deal, political risks,
receding Brexit worries * More Fed and ECB speakers on the agenda * US yields
edge higher * GBP with a strong rally
Morning Markets – TF
Asian equity markets kicked off the
day with a bounce in sentiment thanks to higher crude prices a firmer US dollar
and a positive lead from Wall Street overnight.
Euro wrap-up –
Daiwa
Daily Market Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Dollar Marks time
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Agreement reached on
releasing next tranche of bailout funds to Greece but debt relief mostly
delayed until 2018 * Brexit would cause two more years of ‘austerity’, IFS
study claims * Two online polls suggest EU referendum is neck and neck and that
trust in Cameron has fallen * Dutch PM warns of Brexit consequences for his
country’s industry * Former SAS commander Sir Michael Rose: EU membership
undermines Britain’s military * Erdoğan threatens to call off EU-Turkey migrant
deal unless visa-free travel granted * Deficit sanctions for Spain and Portugal
still a possibility according to Eurgroup Chief * Timmermans: Constitutional
stand-off is an internal Polish problem, the solution to which can only be
formulated in Poland
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Let’s get digital! — Schulz
power play — EU’s North Korean labor
US Open – ZH
Global Stocks, Futures Rally, Ignore
Sharp Yuan Devaluation On Hopes Fed Is Right This Time
Frontrunning – ZH
Yesterday’s enormous
risk-appetite rally has changed the tone across markets leaving us to decide
whether it was merely an ugly short squeeze or if the markets have declared
themselves unafraid of the hawkish Fed.
With most of continental
Europe basking in summer sunshine the region's financial markets have roared
back into risk-on mode supported by a bevy of sunny news developments including
strong US home sales data a breakthrough Greek debt deal and a new strong lead
for the pro-EU side of the Brexit campaign.
FINNISH
Velka
ei ole syypää rahapolitiikan tehottomuuteen * Euromaat pääsivät sopuun Kreikan
uudesta lainaerästä * Ruotsin työmarkkinat vahvimmillaan aikoihin *
Markkinoiden odotukset Fedin koronnostotahdista nousivat yhä
Jan Hurri: Näin euromaiden
velkataakka kevenee – paitsi Kreikan – TalSa
Euromaiden
talousministerit empivät, josko tohtisi keventää Kreikan valtaisaa
velkataakkaa. Keskuspankit eivät emmi: ne antavat paraikaakin mittavaa
velkahuojennusta kaikille eurovaltioille – paitsi Kreikalle.
Kokoomuksen johdolle
murska-arvio puolueiden imagotutkimuksessa – YLE
Puolueiden uusi
imagotutkimus: katso eri puolueiden vahvuudet ja heikkoudet – YLE
Eikö keskuspankki voisi
maksaa kaikkien velat? – Peter
Nyberg
KREIKKA
Kreikalle
myönnetään 10,3 miljardin lisälaina – YLE
Euroryhmä
lupasi Kreikalle 10 miljardin lisärahoituksen ja velkahelpotuksia – Verkkouutiset
Euroryhmä
sopi Kreikan lainahelpotuksista – tai ainakin periaatteesta – YLE
Onko
Kreikan kolmas tukipaketti toiminut? – Roger Wessman
Euroryhmä
sopi, että Kreikan kriisi jatkuu viimeistään 2018 – Antti Ronkainen