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EUROPE
Europe Monthly – Daiwa
Good Q1, slower Q2, downside
risks, UK Brexit referendum ahead
Eurozone Watch – Europe’s soft approach towards
the periphery – ABN AMRO
The European Commission decided to postpone its decision about fines for Spain and Portugal until after the Spanish elections. The countries were granted another year to lower their budget deficits to below the EC’s 3% limit. Italy got some leeway to lower its debt ratio more slowly than planned. Although the EC’s approach will benefit economic growth in the short term, it might fuel euroscepticism in the core and could create doubts about debt sustainability in the longer run.
The European Commission decided to postpone its decision about fines for Spain and Portugal until after the Spanish elections. The countries were granted another year to lower their budget deficits to below the EC’s 3% limit. Italy got some leeway to lower its debt ratio more slowly than planned. Although the EC’s approach will benefit economic growth in the short term, it might fuel euroscepticism in the core and could create doubts about debt sustainability in the longer run.
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
Minutes of April ECB
meeting – ECB
ECB closed ranks against
critics in April meeting, minutes show – Reuters
ECB Sees Major EU Reform
Deficiency Amid Worrisome Inflation – BB
ECB’s Liikanen Sees
Basic Math Signaling Inflation Over Goal – BB
UNITED
KINGDOM
Michael Bloomberg: Leaving
Europe Is a Risk the U.K. Shouldn't Take – View / BB
John Hardy: Trading the
UK Brexit referendum in FX – TF
Steen Jakobsen: Why the
EU is the least of Britain's worries – TF
UNITED STATES
FOMC
MINUTES
Minutes Say June Is On
The Table – Tim Duy
"Most participants
judged" June rate hike "appropriate" based on data – Bill McBride
Majority of Fed
officials prepared to raise interest rates in June, documents show – WaPo
Fed Minutes open door
for June rate hike – ABN AMRO
Surprisingly hawkish
FOMC minutes unsettles observers – Pictet
June Fed Rate-Hike Odds
Surge After April Meeting Minutes: Chart – BB
Watch for Yellen's June
6 speech to confirm rate hike – TF
El-Erian: 5 Quick Takeaways
from the Fed Minutes – View / BB
Fed rate hike on the
table for June – Nordea
Does the Fed Have Enough
Time to Answer the Big ‘If’? – WSJ
REGULARS
Hawkish minutes suggests that the
Fed is uncomfortable with the market’s dovish view of its rate path: June is
live * Spillover from the US will dominate this morning in the early trading session
* Stronger USD on the back of hawkish FOMC minutes
The ripple effects of the FOMC
minutes were felt as far away as Japan with the retreat of the yen against the
greenback giving an early lift to equities in Tokyo. However fading prospects
for fiscal stimulus moves eroded the early gains. Stocks in South Korea and
Australia were lower as well. On a brighter note China's Shanghai Composite
made strong gains in afternoon trading.
Euro wrap-up –
Daiwa
FOMC Minutes Extend Dollar Gains
The Fed's gambit
As things look after the
latest Fed minutes we could see 2-3 rate hikes in 2016 the likelihood for an
increase to happen next month already is just above 1/3 now.
Leave camp condemns
“uncontrolled migration” as number of EU workers in UK reaches new record-high
* Germany would be the biggest loser of Brexit, says leading German research
institute * Brexit would reduce future house price rises in UK, new study finds
* IDS attacks Cameron for ‘tossing aside’ sovereignty bill * Spain and Portugal
win temporary budget reprieve from EU Commission * Poland faces prospect of EU
sanctions for failing to uphold rule of law * Fewer than 200 Syrians resettled
under EU-Turkey deal – as relocations from Italy and Greece fall woefully short
of targets * EU Commission to propose Netflix carry at least 20% European
content
The 40 MEPs who matter —
Politics trumps economics
Global Stocks Slide, S&P Set To
Open Red For The Year As Hawkish Fed Ignites "Risk Off"
Fed waxes hawkish with
explicit discussion of a June rate hike in the minutes USD bounds higher
especially against the risky currencies. USD recovery broadens and extends as
we eye next US data releases.
The minutes of the US
Federal Reserve's April policy meeting sharply lifted expectations of a US rate
hike in June boosting the dollar and knocking bonds gold risk currencies Asian
stocks and other dollar-sensitive assets.
FINLAND
& FINNISH
Brexit
sattuisi Suomessakin – ja kovaa * Fedin haukkamainen kokouspöytäkirja vahvisti
dollaria * Britannian työttömyysaste pysyi vakaana * EKP julkaisee pöytäkirjan
huhtikuun kokouksestaan
Raportti
maahanmuutosta, turvallisuustilanteesta ja kansalaispartioista
Ruotsin
ja muiden keskuspankkien täytyy ehkä siirtyä helikopterirahan kaltaisiin
radikaaleihin keinoihin, jos muu ei auta talouskasvun vauhdittamiseksi. Näin
sanoo Ruotsin keskuspankin varajohtaja Cecilia Skingsley.