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EUROPE
Europe’s political landscape may look quite
different by end-2017 – and the UK referendum is just one of the reasons why – Open
Europe
During the fifteen
months following the UK’s EU referendum, voters in the Eurozone’s four largest
countries will also head to the polls for a number of key ballots that could
change Europe’s political landscape quite significantly. Open Europe’s Vincenzo
Scarpetta looks at what is at stake for each individual country and the EU as a
whole.
Hans-Werner Sinn: Twin Tests for the EU – Project
Syndicate
Two decisions in June
will shape the future of Europe: the ruling by Germany's Constitutional Court
on whether the Bundesbank may participate in the ECB's bond-buying program and
the UK's referendum on continued EU membership. Whatever the outcome, the era
of unconditional trust in the EU and its institutions has come to an end.
Brexit Monitor No. 5: Brexit fears eased further
this week – Danske
Bank
The ECB seeks balance between caution and
confidence – Pictet
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL
RESERVE
Fed officials believe
the data is lining up for a rate hike in the near future. Ultimately, I think
they pass on June. Strategically, July offers a lot to like.
Juhani Huopainen: July hike would see the Fed
have its cake, eat it, too –
TF
Everyone has heard the
"June is live" line by now but there are a few reasons why such an
imminent US rate hike is unlikely; July in fact will probably prove the path of
least resistance for the Federal Reserve.
Is The Market Priced For A Summer Rate-Hike? – ZH
DATA
U.S. economic growth
revised higher in first quarter – Reuters
First Quarter GDP
Revised Higher To 0.8%, Misses Expectations – ZH
Q1 GDP Revised Up to
0.8% Annual Rate – Bill
McBride
Consumer Sentiment at
94.7 – Bill
McBride
Putting Profits in
Perspective – Project
Syndicate
U.S. Economy Grew More
Last Quarter Than Previously Estimated – BB
What Are the Negatives
From the U.S. GDP Report? – BB
What Impact Will U.S.
GDP Numbers Have on Fed Policy? – BB
Why GDP Numbers May Put
Fed Rate Hike on Hold – BB
OTHER
G7
G7 vows growth efforts
as Japan's Abe warns of global crisis – Reuters
G7 leaders: Brexit a
‘serious risk to growth’ – Politico
END OF
NEOLIBERALISM
Neoliberalism: Oversold?
– IMF
Can Globalization Still
Deliver? – IMF
IMF economists put
‘neoliberalism’ under the spotlight – FT
New IMF Paper Challenges
Neoliberal Orthodoxy – Yves
Smith
REGULARS
Markets awaiting Yellen speech, oil
lower, new ECB call * No need for more ECB easing for now * Spanish bonds
suffer on political uncertainties * GBP and USD were the biggest losers
yesterday against other G10 currencies
European indices are expected to
open mildly higher though markets will likely be subdued as traders await a key
speech by Fed chief Janet Yellen.
Euro wrap-up –
Daiwa
Daily Market Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Dollar Firms as Traders Await Yellen
Daily Market Comment
– Macro
Man
The Fed's Memorial Day barbecue
Daily Shot – TF
Weak US capital goods
investment shipments and manufacturers' orders paint a subdued picture and the
so-called "Vice index" of booze gambling and unhealthy food
consumption indicates a weaker economy ahead. Declining US inflation
expectations despite stronger oil prices are another argument supporting the
Fed doves though Fed officials continue to beat the tightening drum.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
FT: France will want to
send “punitive message” in event of Brexit although Germany is wary of an
aggressive approach * Johnson criticises Cameron’s ‘cynical’ immigration target
* G7 leaders warn Brexit is a “serious risk to growth” * EU plans to spend €67m
on drones to monitor oceans for migrant boats * Scottish Parliament signals
strong support for continued EU membership * New figures show Leave camp is
ahead in fundraising race * Protests over labour reform bill intensify across
France * Merkel against easing EU sanctions on Russia * Polish Deputy Prime
Minister says constitutional dispute is putting off investors * Member states
agree to allow subscribers to access digital media services access the EU
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Swimming for In — Putin
does Athens — Commission on forced labor
US Open – ZH
All Eyes On Yellen: Global Markets
Flat On Dreadful Volumes, Oil Slides
Frontrunning – ZH
The US dollar rally has
fizzled for the moment ahead of next week’s US economic data onslaught. The yen
remains stubbornly firm after the G7 summit seen as presenting a high bar for
Japanese FX intervention.
Crude oil retreated
Friday and looks set to drift further lower after a failed breach of the
headline-grabbing $50/barrel level on Thursday. Meanwhile FX and fixed-income
markets await a speech from Fed chief Janet Yellen and look ahead to a raft of
key data next week for confirmation of recent Fed hawkishness.
FINNISH
Ruotsin
talouskasvu maltillistuu * Norjan öljyinvestoinnit laskevat edelleen tänä
vuonna * Fedin pääjohtaja Yellen pitää illalla puheen * Punta heikentyi
Britannian investointien laskiessa
Matti Vanhasen kolumni:
Brexit johtaisi suurvaltojen Eurooppaan – MTV