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EUROPE
EU balance shifting against market economies, advisers say * Government
advisory panel still sees chance to avoid Brexit
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
The ECB, especially, is set to face growing pushback against its
independent status, regardless of whether it manages to “save” the EMU. After
all, it would have to be quite powerful to succeed – too powerful for any
democracy to abide.
Backdoor socialisation, expropriated savers and asset bubbles
Chief economist David Folkerts-Landau says ECB has entered new dimension
of moral hazard
Exchange rate pass-through into euro area inflation – ECB
ECB Study Finds Impact of Weak Euro on Prices Recedes With Time – BB
TARGET balances and the asset purchase programme – ECB
UNITED KINGDOM
Is austerity to blame for Brexit? – Simon Wren-Lewis
WTO rules mean Brexit and new trade arrangement not fully separable – Open Europe
London Judges Said to Rule on Brexit Challenge Thursday Morning – BB
Brexit Bulletin: The View From Berlin – BB
UNITED STATES
Renewed risks of a Trumpening have temporarily dented the USD’s upward
trajectory. This is a temporary setback as focus will soon return to European
politics, the Fed’s rate hike as well as to ECB’s QE extension.
OCTOBER JOBS
ADP October +147,000 jobs, fewest workers in five months – BB
ADP Employment Report Sinks To Weakest Since April 2013 – ZH
ADP: Private Employment increased 147,000 in October – Bill McBride
ADP October +147,000 jobs, fewest workers in five months – BB
ADP Employment Report Sinks To Weakest Since April 2013 – ZH
ADP: Private Employment increased 147,000 in October – Bill McBride
U.S. private sector adds 147,000 jobs in October: ADP – Reuters
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
The race is tightening – Nordea
Clinton or Trump - free trade is under pressure – Nordea
Election Guide to Markets: What to Watch With 7 Days to Go – BB
Citi Explains What Time Traders Can Go Home On Election Night – ZH
FEDERAL RESERVE
The Fed Meets in November to Tee Up a Hike in Dcember – BB
Fed's November meeting IS the December one – TF
Yellen Questions – John Cochrane
Decision-day guide: Fed may nod to December hike in 2015 rerun – BB
November Policy Statement – FED
Fed holds rates steady, sets stage for December hike – Reuters
Fed Sets Up Possible December Move While Leaving Rates on Hold – BB
A December Interest-Rate Increase? Why Tuesday’s Election Matters – WSJ
It’s going to be one heck of an election year, Fed meeting edition – FT
FOMC Says Little New, December Hike Remains Likely – Marc Chandler
Unchanged, says case for a rate hike ‘has continued to strengthen’ – Danske Bank
Fed Holds, Says Case For December Hike "Strengthens" – ZH
December Rate Hike Odds Spike To 80% - ZH
OTHER
Aurelija Augulyte: JPY -
not so fast... – Nordea
The JPY weakened and undershot the market indicators. It is still far
from "overvalued". The US election poses near term strengthening
risks.
Martin Enlund: USD: - Wu & Xia vs Trump – Nordea
Renewed risks of a Trumpening have temporarily dented the USD’s upward
trajectory. This is a temporary setback as focus will soon return to European
politics, the Fed’s rate hike as well as to ECB’s QE extension.
China Is Losing Its Emerging Markets Growth Engine – BB
Commodity price rally raises hopes that demand will pick up * Emerging
markets now account for a third of China’s exports
Total investment in five fastest-growing provinces exceeds GDP * Top
performers depend on property, infrastructure investment
Examples from the US and Europe to highlight the five principles of a
‘New View’ of fiscal policy, which increasingly appreciates that expansionary
fiscal policy is effective in a world of persistently low interest rates, low
growth, and strong international linkages.
Prices slide to near levels before Algiers accord on output * OPEC and
Russia boost production to record levels despite deal
Editorial: Free Trade’s
Bleak Outlook – View / BB
REGULARS
European currencies outperform on
Trump fear, USD rates dip ahead of silent Fed * Fed to hint at December rate
hike? * Rates start the month reversing lower * European currencies gain as
stocks drop
The gap between Clinton and Trump
has narrowed prompting Japan’s Nikkei to drop over 1% the volatility index to
spike and the USD to sell off against its peers. Expect a rocky day.
Standpat FOMC Trumped by US
Political Jitters
Dodgy credit
Autumn Statement to ease off fiscal
targets to create Brexit contingency “headroom” * City lobby calls for
“mutually beneficial” financial services deal with EU as UK surplus hits record
£63.4bn in 2015 * German government economic advisors recommend to “prevent
Brexit through constructive negotiations” * Former Canadian PM: UK can learn
from Canada’s experience of trade integration without surrendering sovereignty
Oettinger fallout continues —
EU-China tit-for-tat
Fed day * Election anxiety * Oil
slide continues * Stocks slide * Tech earnings
Global Stocks, Peso, Oil Drop On
Trump Fears; Safe Havens Rise Ahead Of Fed Announcement
USD weaker versus safe haven
currencies as markets fret the odds of a Trump victory next Tuesday and the
uncertainty this brings to global markets. EURCHF has broken down out of the
recent range as risk appetite shaken globally and the JPY has surged as bond
yields pulled back lower.
FINNISH
Ei vielä tänään, mutta joulukuussa * USA:n teollisuuden
luottamus (ISM) nousi lokakuussa 51,9 pisteeseen * Britannian
ostopäällikköindeksi edelleen vahva * USA:n vaalitilanteen tiukkeneminen
vähensi markkinoiden riskinottohalukuutta