4th Nov - US jobs report points to a Dec hike

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UNITED STATES

  JOBS REPORT OCTOBER

What Wall Street Expects – ZH

An "okay" jobs report would be enough for the Fed to hike – TF

October Employment Preview – Bill McBride

U.S. employment growth, wages seen picking up in October – Reuters

October Payrolls Miss, Rise 161,000 After Upward Revisions, Wages Beat – ZH

161,000 Jobs, 4.9% Unemployment Rate – Bill McBride

Comments: Solid Report, Pickup in Wage Growth – Bill McBride

Jobs Report – The Numbers – WSJ

The October Jobs Report in 15 Charts – WSJ

Economists React: ‘A Big Positive for Income’ – WSJ
El-Erian: Three Simple Messages From the U.S. Employment Data – View / BB

US Jobs Data Maintains Fed Hike Expectations – Marc Chandler

Solid jobs report makes a December hike very likely – Danske Bank

Strong US wage growth keeps December rate hike on track – ABN AMRO

  PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Even tighter Clinton-Trump race – Nordea

It’s not over until the fat lady sings – Danske Bank

Brexit Flashbacks Haunt Traders Bracing for Clinton-Trump Vote – BB

OTHER

Global FX Strategy: Beyond the Trumpdump – Nordea

FX volatility has picked up in the wake of a surging likelihood of a Trump presidency. Market gyrations over the next week will largely be determined by election uncertainty. Beyond that, the market will increasingly trade on improving global growth prospects as well as on the expected pick-up in headline inflation.

EM FX: Waiting for the next US president – Nordea

EM currencies tended to weaken slightly during October. It seems that EM currencies are mostly awaiting the outcome of the US election and are trading with the general risk sentiment. That does not mean that nothing is happening, though. On the contrary: here is what is going on with the ZAR, MXN, TRY, CNY and EGP.

REGULARS

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Eye-Opener – Nordea

Brexit obstacles, equity losing streak, payrolls Friday * Bank of England abandons plans for further easing * Longer yields with another rise * GBP with a strong rebound

Morning Markets – TF

Asian markets have echoed Thursday's falls on Wall Street while energy stocks have felt the pain of falling oil prices. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell heavily while Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX200 landed in the red for the third week running.

Euro wrap-up – Daiwa

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler

Market Paralysis Does Not Spill Over into Equities

Daily Market Comment – Macro Man

Brexit glossary of terms

Daily Press Summary – Open Europe

Brussels Playbook – Politico

US Open – ZH

Global Stocks Drop; Futures Hints At Longest Losing Streak Since December 1980

Frontrunning – ZH

FX Update – TF

More headlines are trumpeting the apparent tightening of the US election race with new polls in states thought to be fairly solidly in Clinton’s camp narrowing notably. In FX traders are taking the news in stride as the peso has firmed and the JPY has eased. Today’s US payrolls may be ignored if there are no surprises.

FINNISH

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

Odotamme USA:sta vahvoja työllisyyslukuja * Britannian oikeus päätti, että Artiklan 50 mukainen prosessi vaatii parlamentin hyväksynnän * Englannin keskuspankki luopui suunnitelmistaan toteuttaa vielä yksi koronlasku tänä vuonna * Egyptin punta päästettiin kellumaan

Halvaantunut EU – Osmo Soininvaara

Markkinat hävisivät jo USA:n vaalit – Nordea

Vaalihuuma jyrää nyt myös rahoitusmarkkinoilla, kun selvältä näyttänyt USA:n presidentinvaali ei enää näytäkään Clintonin läpihuudolta. Viime aikoina huolet Trumpin voitosta ja sen seurauksista ovat kasvaneet huomattavasti. USA:n osakemarkkinat (S&P 500) ovat laskeneet jo seitsemänä päivänä peräkkäin. Viimeksi näin pitkä laskuputki on nähty vuonna 2011. Vaalien lopputuloksesta huolimatta markkinanäkymät ensi vuodelle eivät suinkaan ole synkät.